نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه صنعتی شریف

2 برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ای از دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

چکیده

بر اساس باور رایجی از سال­های دهه 1960 میلادی، متأثّر از نظریه­های توسعه قطبی و تعادل اقتصادی نئوکلاسیک، نظام­های فضایی ملّی در تحوّلی پوینده و همگام با رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، تا تحقّق یک سلسله­مراتب متعادل و کارا از اندازه شهرها، پنداشته شده­اند. به­این­صورت که، در مراحل نخستین توسعه، رشد اقتصادی یک کشور منجر به تمرکز منابع و جمعیت در معدود شهرهای اصلی (موسوم به «نخست­شهرها») می­گردد و پس از تجربه تمرکز شهری فزاینده، مرحله بعدی توسعه آغاز می­گردد که طی آن، رشد و بزرگی اقتصاد ملّی تا حدّ مکفی و مطلوب، همراه با زیان­های اقتصادی ناشی از تجمّع بیش از حد، ازدحام، و اثرات ­بیرونیِ نامطلوب در نخست­شهرها منجر به کاهش تدریجی شدّت تمرکز و «نخست­شهری» می­شود. پژوهش­های سری­زمانی و میان­کشوری متعدّدی، بر اساس این مدل غیرخطّی (به شکل U وارونه) و مدل یکسویه منفی پیشنهاد شده توسط برخی از پژوهشگران، با استفاده از متغیّرهای مختلفی به عنوان شاخص­های نخست­شهری و توسعه اقتصادی، صحّت وجود مدل­های مزبور را مورد بررسی و آزمون قرار داده­اند. لیکن ماحصل این پژوهش­ها، تاکنون متناقض و بی­نتیجه بوده است. این مطالعه سعی در واکاوی این موضوع و بررسی هر دو مدل مزبور دارد. بدین منظور، جهت کنترل اعوجاجات ناشی از تنوّع شاخص­های نخست­شهری و توسعه که در مطالعات پیشین مورد استفاده قرار گرفته­اند، از 8 شـاخص نخست­شهری و 3 شاخص توسعه 67 کشور جهان در سال 2000 میلادی بهره گرفته شده است. مجموعه نتایج آزمون­های آماری و مدل­های رگرسیونی این مطالعه، حاکی از آن است که دلیلِ آماری معنی­داری در تأیید وجود رابطه میان­کشوری بین نخست­شهری و توسعه اقتصادی وجود ندارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Probing the Relationship between Urban Primacy and Economic Development: A Cross-country Analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ahmad Sharbatoghlie 1
  • Heydar Javanmard 2

1 Sharif University of Technology

2 Urban and Regional Planning from the University of Science and Technology

چکیده [English]

According to a prevalent belief since the 1960s, patterns of national spatial systems have been thought to be dynamically transmuted appropriate to the levels of national economic growth and development until a rather balanced and efficient hierarchy of city-sizes is realized. This evolutionary process can be divided into two significant phases backed by the theories of “neoclassical economic equilibrium” and “polarized development”. That is, at the initial phase of development, economic growth essentially leads to resources and population concentration in a few core cities entitled “primate cities.” After that, in the second phase of development, sufficient degree of economic expansion would lead to gradual reduction of “urban primacy” through dispersion of growth factors and population throughout the nation. In view of economic principles, the aforementioned dispersive process would inevitably come to pass as a result of emerged diseconomies arising out of excessive agglomeration, congestion, and negative externalities within the primate cities. Based on this “nonlinear (inverted U-shape) model” and the “negative unidirectional relationship” suggested by some researchers, numerous time-series and cross-country studies using various indexes have investigated the existence and behavior of the mentioned interrelation. But upshot of these researches is contradictory and inconclusive until now. We aim at elucidating and probing into this disputation. So, for controlling the distortions caused by the diversity of primacy and development indexes employed in previous studies, we use 8 primacy indexes and 3 development indexes of 67 countries in the year 2000. Our statistical tests with varied (unidirectional and nonlinear) mathematical functions reveal that, aggregately, there is not any significant “cross-country” relationship between urban primacy and economic development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Urban System
  • Urban Primacy
  • Economic development
  • Cross-Country Research
  • Polarized Development
  • Center-Periphery Model
  • Neoclassical Equilibrium
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