Climatology
Hassan Zareh; Saeed Movahedi; Dariush Rahimi
Abstract
Reduction in productivity of horticultural and agricultural products, increase in pests, reduction in quality of agricultural products, and threat to food security are the consequences of climate change. The impact of climate change on agriculture leads to an increase in risk and risk-taking in the field ...
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Reduction in productivity of horticultural and agricultural products, increase in pests, reduction in quality of agricultural products, and threat to food security are the consequences of climate change. The impact of climate change on agriculture leads to an increase in risk and risk-taking in the field of agricultural activities. The results of the observational data review confirm the occurrence of climate change. The annual temperature anomaly of Bushehr province indicated an increase in the frequency of years with temperatures above the average from 1996 to 2021. According to the Pettitt's test, this increase is about 1.2 c˙. In addition, the significant increase in temperature at the 95% confidence level and Z values ≥ 2(in Mann-Kendall test) confirmed the occurrence of climate change in Bushehr province. The estimated data of the model for the future period confirm the continuation of the increasing trend of olive temperature thresholds for the period (2014-2040). The findings of the research indicated that with the increase in temperature for at least the following 20 years, the olive tree's cooling needs will not be met and the flowering season will occur in March instead of April. In the future, more areas will have an annual temperature of more than 26 °C. Therefore, in the future, the olive growing period will increase from 90 days to 150 days. With the increase in the number of days with temperatures above 40°C, the fruit burns more and the quality of olives decreases. Therefore, in addition to Asalouye and Dashtestan counties (1994-2019), Kangan, Jam, Deir and Dashti counties, the northern foothills of the province, and parts of Dilam (2017-2040) are added to the unsuitable olive areas. The favorable areas for olive cultivation will be moved to the west of the province.
