Urban Planning
Marziyeh Esmaeelpour; manijeh lalehpour; Samaneh Mamaghani
Abstract
IntroductionNatural hazards, with various types and extent, as recurring and destructive phenomena, have always existed throughout the life of the planet and have always been a serious threat to humans since the creation of mankind (Rajabi et al., 2018: 184). Among the natural hazards, earthquake ...
Read More
IntroductionNatural hazards, with various types and extent, as recurring and destructive phenomena, have always existed throughout the life of the planet and have always been a serious threat to humans since the creation of mankind (Rajabi et al., 2018: 184). Among the natural hazards, earthquake is one of the most horrible ones in the history of mankind, which belongs in the category of immediate dangers. This natural phenomenon can be characterized by their high destructive potential and the brutal killing in a short time (Taghipour, 2016: 195).There are many definitions of vulnerability in the literature. Vulnerability is defined as “a state combining physical, economic and environmental factors, which increases system sensibility to danger” by the United Nations/International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (Peng, 2012: 95). One of the most effective strategies to reduce social and economic losses resulted from earthquakes is to mitigate the vulnerability of society to seismic hazards based on an accurate and scientific risk assessment (Wei et al., 2017: 1289). It is not possible to accurately predict the earthquake, but the earthquake can be studied from the following two aspects, so the casualties caused by the earthquake decrease as much as possible. First, seismic vulnerability should be assessed before the earthquake, and the construction of disaster prevention and reduction system should be strengthened in the regions with relative high vulnerability of population. Second, according to the estimated casualties, the reasonable rescue measures would be deployed to carry out the effective rescue (Zhang et al., 2018: 2).Data and MethodIn the present study, the seismic vulnerability of district 10 of Tabriz due to its proximity to Tabriz fault has been assessed. District 10 is one of the northern areas of the city and its texture is mainly marginal, which increases the vulnerability to earthquake. Various factors affect the vulnerability of an urban area to earthquake including height and age of the buildings, the quality of materials, population density and distance to active faults (Khamespanah et al., 2016: 58). In the present study, 12 factor were applied to investigate the seismic vulnerability of district 10 of Tabriz metropolis: slope, distance to fault, to hazardous installations, to the hospitals and fire stations, population density, residential density, access to open urban public spaces, number of building floors, building quality, materials and urban grain.In order to present the vulnerability map of district 10, thematic layers of the studied criteria were prepared and transformed into fuzzy. Decreasing and increasing linear functions were used to fuzzification the thematic layers. The five fuzzy operators i.e. and, or, product, sum and gamma can be used for combining thematic maps. The operator used in this study to integrate a fuzzy subject layer is the gamma operator. Also, the vulnerability coefficient of district 10 to the average earthquake intensity was calculated. The range of numbers obtained from the vulnerability coefficient is between 0 and 1, indicating lack of damage and a building collapse, respectively. (Ahadnezhad Reveshti et al., 2010: 182).Results and DiscussionIn order to assess the seismic vulnerability, it is necessary to generate a seismic micro zonation map for the study area. To this end, 3 steps were performed as follows:Thematic layers affecting seismic vulnerability were prepared in the GIS environment and their spatial distribution in the district 10 of Tabriz was evaluated.In this step, thematic layers were transformed into fuzzy using fuzzy functions.Fuzzy thematic layers were combined using a fuzzy operator and a seismic vulnerability map was prepared for district 10 of Tabriz.The results of seismic zoning of region 10 of Tabriz using fuzzy logic can be summarized as follows: - About 4.5% of the study area is in a very high vulnerability and 12.6% of its area is in a high vulnerability class. Also, the total area of low and very low vulnerability zones is about 64.9%. Very low vulnerable areas correspond to the barren lands, green spaces and all open spaces of the district. In addition, in Eram neighborhoods in the north of the study area, residential and population density are much lower than others. Some of the southern neighborhoods of this region, such as Sheshgalan and Daveh Chi, are less vulnerable to earthquakes due to the lower population and residential density, proximity to the hospital, to green spaces and less distance to the fire station. . - Neighborhoods such as Khalilabad and Ghorbani in the central parts of district 10, are among the most vulnerable ones to earthquakes. Factors such as high population and residential density, lack of access to urban open spaces are the most important reasons for the high vulnerability of these areas. The central neighborhoods of district 10 are the most vulnerable to earthquake hazard. Due to the high population density in these areas, a large earthquake can lead to severe damage and loss of life in these areas. The results of damage analysis in district 10 of Tabriz, considering a possible earthquake with a magnitude of 10, show that the northern and southern parts of region 10 are in class D0 against a possible earthquake and will be without damage. About 6.4% of urban spaces in the study area are in Class D3, which will suffer significant to severe damage. Finally, about 0.6% of urban spaces in the study area are in class D5. This class includes part of the central neighborhoods and indicates the very high vulnerability of these areas to an earthquake.ConclusionFindings show that vulnerability is higher in the central neighborhoods of district 10. Factors such as high residential and population density, old tissue, distance to hospitals and lack of access to public open spaces are the most important factors that cause very high seismic vulnerability in this part of the city. District 10 of Tabriz is located near the large north fault of Tabriz and in this regard, the whole area is vulnerable to earthquake. However, proximity to the fault alone cannot be a measure of the vulnerability of urban buildings and structures, but planning and physical factors in the city can aggravate or, conversely, reduce seismic vulnerability. The results of the seismic vulnerability coefficient of the study area to a possible earthquake with a magnitude of 10 show that the buildings located in the central neighborhoods of district 10 have the highest seismic vulnerability. Due to the high population and residential density in these areas, during an earthquake there will undoubtedly be very high and catastrophic casualties and financial losses.
Urban Planning
manijeh lalehpour; Marziyeh Esmaeelpour; elham shojaie
Volume 22, Issue 66 , January 2019, , Pages 230-249
Abstract
In order to achieve electronic city, a city should reach a suitable degree in electronic readiness. The aim of this study is consideration and examination of Tabriz metropolis in order to establishment of electronic city. Statistical population of the research is the citizens of four regions in Tabriz ...
Read More
In order to achieve electronic city, a city should reach a suitable degree in electronic readiness. The aim of this study is consideration and examination of Tabriz metropolis in order to establishment of electronic city. Statistical population of the research is the citizens of four regions in Tabriz metropolis. These regions differ in geographic characteristics and include city's central business district (region 8), inner- city texture (region 3), informal textures (region 7) and urban planned textures (region 5). The aim is to recognize differences among these regions in electronic readiness components. To this end, according to these regions population, the sample size was determined 383 individuals using Cochran formula. Then, using quota sampling, depending on population of each region, the proportion of each region from sample size was determined. Using Cronbach's alpha, reliability of questionnaire was estimated at .76. The method of this research is descriptive- analytical and required data was collected using library and field studies (questionnaire). Based on CID model, the components of the research were classified into 5 groups. In order to analysis of data, one sample T test and Kruskal Wallis has been used. The results show that based on T test in all regions the mean is greater than threshold value (2) and the p-value (0.000) is quite small (less than the common -level of 0.05). So, studied regions are in a suitable situation in terms of electronic readiness. In order to illustrate differences between the regions, Kruskal Wallis was used. Based on this test, there is a significant difference among regions in electronic access, electronic society, electronic economy and electronic policy. Just, there is not a significant difference in electronic education among 4 regions.
Tahere Jalali Ansaroodi; Aliakbar Rasouli; Fatemeh Sarafrouzeh; Marzieh Esmaeilpour
Volume 19, Issue 51 , April 2015, , Pages 171-191
Abstract
In this paper, Nisan rainfalls of East Azerbaijan Province in the period of 1980 to 2009 were investigated. Initially changes of Nisan rainfalls trend were analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's estimator slope that are the most common methods of non-parametric tests. In order ...
Read More
In this paper, Nisan rainfalls of East Azerbaijan Province in the period of 1980 to 2009 were investigated. Initially changes of Nisan rainfalls trend were analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's estimator slope that are the most common methods of non-parametric tests. In order to predict changes of Nisan rainfalls in the next years, ARMA time series model was used. The results indicated that according to non-parametric tests in the study period, time series of Nisan rainfalls have no trend in none of the stations except Azarshahr. After reviewing of different patterns of ARMA model, proportional model for each station was selected based on Akaike information criterion (ACI) and, the Nisan rainfalls in East Azerbaijan Province were predicted for next 10 years. The accuracy of models was confirmed based on normality tests for residuals of the model and RMSE
Saeed Jahanbakhsh; Majid Rezaee Banafshe; Marziyeh Esmaeelpour; Masoomeh Tadayoni
Volume 16, Issue 40 , September 2012, , Pages 25-46
Abstract
Accurate estimating of potential evapotranspiration is essential for many studies related to agriculture and water balance. This study was carried out with the aim of surveying models for estimating potential evapotranspiration in the southern basin of Aras river. For this purpose, the monthly data of ...
Read More
Accurate estimating of potential evapotranspiration is essential for many studies related to agriculture and water balance. This study was carried out with the aim of surveying models for estimating potential evapotranspiration in the southern basin of Aras river. For this purpose, the monthly data of 6 stations including mean air temperature, minimum and maximum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, mean and minimum relative humidity were used in the statistical period of 20 years (1986-2005).
After reconstruction missing values and controlling stations for being reference (well irrigated) or non reference, potential evapotranspiration values were computed applying 9 methods (FAO- Penman- Monteith, Blanney-Criddle, Hargreaves-Samani, Makkink, Turc, ASCE standardized method, Kimberly- Penman, Penman and Priestly-Taylor) in REF-ET software. For determining best method, calculated potential evapotranspiration values were compared with evaporation pan values by using correlation coefficient and root mean square difference. Results indicated that there was significant correlation between Blanney-Criddle and pan evaporation values. Therefore, Blanney-Criddle model was selected as the best model for the study area. Afterwards, based on the above mentioned model and also the use of interpolation technique, the potential iso-evapotranspiration map was drawn for the southern basin of the ArasRiver.
