Yousef Zarei; Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust; Majid Rezaeebanafshe; Hashem Rostamzadeh
Abstract
Climate change is one of the main problems on Earth today, so predicting these changes in the future and their impacts on water resources, the natural environment, agriculture, and environmental, economic and social impacts is of particular importance. Therefore, in the present study, the effects of ...
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Climate change is one of the main problems on Earth today, so predicting these changes in the future and their impacts on water resources, the natural environment, agriculture, and environmental, economic and social impacts is of particular importance. Therefore, in the present study, the effects of global climate change on different climatic regions of the country were studied in 12 climatic regions. In this study, NCEP data and climatic elements of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature were used for statistical downscaling with SDSM model. And using the CanEMS2 model output under RCP scenarios for the three statistical periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099 annual climate change data were obtained. Correlation coefficient, determination coefficient and error indexes of RMSE, MSE and MAD were used to evaluate the performance of the model. However, the results showed that the accuracy of the model was different at different stations. In this way, each model performs better than rainfall in simulating minimum and maximum temperatures. The annual long-run results also show that precipitation will decrease in all climates studied in the coming decades, with the largest decrease occurring in semi-warm (35%) and very humid and temperate (32%) desert areas. But minimum and maximum temperature variations will be different in different climatic regions so that under RCP scenarios during all statistical periods at Sabzevar and Tabas stations minimum temperature changes will decrease but in other climatic regions the trend of minimum and maximum temperatures will be incremental. The highest minimum and maximum temperature increases based on RCP scenarios under RCP8.5 scenario during the period 2071-2099 in the cold mountain climatic region will be 3.03, 4.27 ° C, respectively.
Urban Planning
Hasan Lashkari; Yousef Zarei; Mohammad Moradi
Abstract
To study the synoptic - thermodynamic characteristics of the cloud mechanism in Azerbaijan in 2009-2000 period using the average rainfall of 15 mm and inclusive precipitation, 13 days was chosen indicators. To evaluate the development of the synoptic systems, sea level pressure and high levels of 850 ...
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To study the synoptic - thermodynamic characteristics of the cloud mechanism in Azerbaijan in 2009-2000 period using the average rainfall of 15 mm and inclusive precipitation, 13 days was chosen indicators. To evaluate the development of the synoptic systems, sea level pressure and high levels of 850 and 500 HP respectively. 850 and 700 hPa specific humidity of the review process of cloud formation and water vapor transmission to the regional case study was used. To review upward movement that causes the formation of convective clouds to grow vertically or thickness, the vertical component of wind velocity in the coordinate system pressure at the level of 500 HP, were used. The stable and unstable atmospheric conditions were analyzed based on the graph skeu-t Tabriz. Synoptic results showed that the samples case study, the formation mechanism of the regional systems that have passed careful, depend on many factors. As a result of the deepening trough in the middle level of the high latitudes near the poles towards the south of the Mediterranean, the Red Sea along the meridian pressure inverted trough extends towards the south of the Mediterranean Sea. The northern part of the trough to trough height of the middle level, a Low pressure systems form when cold air and moisture from the middle latitudes of the Southern latitudes. Warm weather and cold fronts associated with this system is that, by moving his hand from the East Azerbaijan passes are causing precipitation in the region. Thermodynamic results showed that the thickness of the cloud and precipitation intensity and positive relationship is nonlinear. That the amount and intensity of precipitation than the thickness of the cloud, other factors are involved. The results of thermodynamic parameters showed that the convective rise in spring and autumn with warm and cold fronts are causing heavy rainfall in the region.
