All other Geographic fields of studies , Interdisciplinary
Samira Fallah Zolleh; Alireza Ildoromi; Hamid Nouri
Abstract
Introduction
In recent years, the impact of climate change and drought forecasting on water resources planning and management has received much attention. In the present study, probable climate change on Malayer basin temperature and precipitation over the period 2014-2014 was investigated and monthly, ...
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Introduction
In recent years, the impact of climate change and drought forecasting on water resources planning and management has received much attention. In the present study, probable climate change on Malayer basin temperature and precipitation over the period 2014-2014 was investigated and monthly, seasonal and annual forecasts for the near future (2030-2011) under three scenarios A2, B1 and A1B using HadCM3 general circulation model The LARS-WG model was used for performing and exponential micro-scale.
Data and Method
ARIMA multiplication time series and AIC and SBC criteria and Pert-Manto test in predicting precipitation and SPI and SDI indices have been used to predict drought for the period (1397-1418) of Merville, Pihan and Wasjeh hydrometric stations.The results show an increase in precipitation and temperature in all three monthly, seasonal and annual scales in the coming period, and Shows that the largest meteorological drought for the base period in 1998-1999 is -1/96 and In the coming year 1418-1418 there was adecrease of -2/4. Surveys show that moderate and severe droughts will increase in the coming statistical period at the Mervil, Peyhan and Vasge stations.
Results and Discussion
Drought occurrence reduces discharge and hydrological drought. The results show that due to variability of precipitation and mean air temperature, the trend of drought changes is not the same in different months. Therefore, the duration, severity and frequency of droughts vary from month to year.
Conclusion
Investigation of correlation (r) and mean error (MSE) values between observed and calculated values of discharge and precipitation at the stations under study indicate the high capability of ARIMA model in simulating monthly discharge. And it can be used in other parts of the country.
Hossein Babazadeh; Saeadamir Shamsniya; Fardin Bostani; Elnaz Norozyaghdam; Davood Khodadadydehkardy
Volume 16, Issue 41 , November 2012, , Pages 23-47
Abstract
Stochastic models have been used as one technique to generate scenarios of future climate change. Temperature and precipitation are among the main indicators in climate study. The purposes of this study is analysis of the status of climatic parameters of monthly precipitation and mean monthly temperature, ...
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Stochastic models have been used as one technique to generate scenarios of future climate change. Temperature and precipitation are among the main indicators in climate study. The purposes of this study is analysis of the status of climatic parameters of monthly precipitation and mean monthly temperature, years of drought and years of wetness due to precipitation deficiency, simulation and forecasting using stochastic methods. In this study, the 21 year data on the precipitation and mean monthly temperature at shiraz synoptic station are used and based on ARIMA model, the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation methods, evaluation of all possible models regarding their invariability, examination of parameters and types of model, the suitable models for prediction of monthly precipitation: ARIMA (0 0 0)(2 1 0) 12 and for forecasting of the mean monthly temperature: ARIMA (2 1 0)(2 1 0) 12 were obtained. After validation and evaluation of the model, the forecasting for the agriculture years 2008-09 and 2009-10 were made. In view of the forecasting made, despite of a continuing drought, it is likely that the precipitation will improve. As regards the mean monthly temperature, the trend of increasing temperature, especially in recent years, has continued and the findings of the forecasting show an increase in temperature along with a narrowing of the range of variations.
