Urban Planning
shahrivar rostaei; kosar araghi
Abstract
Today,with the ever-increasing advancement in society,it is becoming a major issue for the society of transformation that has always been and continue.The desire for progress,not be possible without this transformation.The future of human beings is a vague and unknown future,and we must always try to ...
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Today,with the ever-increasing advancement in society,it is becoming a major issue for the society of transformation that has always been and continue.The desire for progress,not be possible without this transformation.The future of human beings is a vague and unknown future,and we must always try to know it with the help of future science.in recent decades, due to changes in events in various social, economic ,environmental and urban spheres, discussions about Urban density and Density.human look to the future also differ.This research, is based on a Futures studies approach, that with the using of descriptive-analytic method focus on the issues of urban congestion and future changes.and for data collection, using library-field-based approach and a new planning perspective (Futures studies) also In order to obtain information and collect relevant expert opinions, use of environmental scanning methods and to identify the proponents , the method of analyzing the interactions / structural effects and MICMAC software and for compiling the of the desired scenarios using the SCENARIOWIZARD software To the most important drivers in it The impact of these propellers on the situation has come to light, and, finally, the development of favorable scenarios in the future state of urban density in Region 2 of Tabriz Municipality will be achieved. At first, 60 effective factors identified in the condensation changes inTabriz city were investigated using a analysis MICMAC software of the 13 impeller agents, then by determining 47 possible probabilities for these13 factors and introducing them into the software the SCENARIOWIZARD, the number of strong scenarios4,and and the number of poor scenarios270 and the number of high-compatibility scenarios11.the analyzes from the scenarios show that the future status of the condensation changes in Tabriz city with the desired and better trend However,we should not forget about the occurrence of critical situations of the future situation.
Urban Planning
Hassan Mahmoudzadeh; Abolfazl Naeemi Peyvasti; Hasan Masoudi
Abstract
Introduction At present, the growth of the urban population of the world is faster than the world's largest, with more than half of the population living in urban areas. This fact has created many environmental and socio-economic problems on a large scale, especially in developing countries. Therefore, ...
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Introduction At present, the growth of the urban population of the world is faster than the world's largest, with more than half of the population living in urban areas. This fact has created many environmental and socio-economic problems on a large scale, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the high urbanization rate and the lack of urban infrastructure on the one hand, and the reduction of land with environmentally valuable land in the cities, on the other hand, reveals the need for a review of the process of change and the prediction of the expansion of cities in the coming years. Foresight science is an interdisciplinary knowledge that, in addition to analysing the trends of the past, has been able to discover, invent, and evaluate possible, probable and desirable future, and transformed the dispersed and inconsistent literature on planning for the future into scientifically codified with solid principles. In this regard, environmental futures research is a process of systematic and accountable effort to address the long-term future with the aim of identifying strategic research areas and the emergence of inclusive environmental technologies, which, while embracing the economic and social benefits of citizens, also minimize the potential for potential losses. Urban environment and provide favourable environmental scenarios, taking into account sustainable development patterns. This research has been designed with the aim of identifying the development indicators of the city of Sardrood including social, economic and environmental dimensions and defining the directions of the city development. During this process, the environmental consequences of its development will be explored with the future-oriented and futuristic approach in the event of its accession to the metropolis of Tabriz. Methods and material This research is based on the objective, applied and descriptive-analytical method. Initially, the required data and indices were prepared using library questionnaires and social, economic and environmental indicators. Then, in the MICMAC software designed for structural analysis, the impact of the indicators produced on each other and on the growth and development of the city was studied. Then, with the Scenario wizard software, the scenarios needed for key factors and driving force behind the development of the city were presented. Results and Discussion The initial variables affecting the future of the system were collected and analyzed using the Delphi technique, and finally, 59 variables were extracted in different dimensions. In order to analyze the effective variables, the structural analysis method was used using MICMAC software and the experts. The distribution of variables indicates that the system is unstable. The direct and indirect effects of variables on each other and on the future of the system were examined by experts and finally, 13 effective factors were obtained from a total of 59 primary factors. In this study, "the type of attitude in the annexation of the city of Sardrood to the metropolis of Tabriz" was identified as the most influential factor. In the final part of the study, a scenario was performed and for each of the key factors, the probable situations were identified. A total of 53 statuses were compiled and to examine the effect of each of the probable situations on other situations, the questionnaires were provided to the experts and entered into the scenario software for analysis of the results. Finally, there were three strong, more likely to occur scenarios, 9,999 poor scenarios, and 13 reasonable and believable scenarios by considering incredible scenarios, there are 169 statuses for them, of which only 24 are highly desirable and 44 are in a desirable process and the rest of the state is static, undesirable, or critical, which does not represent a desirable future for the future of the system. Conclusion This research was carried out with the aim of evaluating the environmental consequences of the development of the city of Sardasht and its annexation to Tabriz's capital city. In the first step, by using the questionnaire tool, 59 factors were identified and evaluated by the experts on the future of the system in various dimensions and entered into the software to determine the key factors. Since the system software was identified as unstable, variables were classified into five general categories, which eventually identified 13 indicators out of 59 indicators as the main factors. In the following, 53 potential scenarios were designed for key factors that indicate the future of key factors. Then, to assess the impact and scenarios of these situations, they were compared through a questionnaire and their results were analyzed using the Wizard scenario software. The software provided 9,999 weak, 13 credible scenarios, and three strong scenarios. For credible scenarios, the status of the future of the ruling system is 169, of which 68 are favorable and 101 are unfavorable. Consequently, even in the case of favorable scenarios, the optimal future for the system is not expected.
