Urban Planning
Mir Sattar Sadr Mousavi; Rasul Yazdani Chaharborj*
Abstract
The rapid urban growth of recent decades in Iran has resulted in extensive changes in urban fringe land-use patterns.It has also had considerable environmental and socio-economic impacts on these areas.Assessing changes of the past land-use patterns and simulation of their future changes are of vital ...
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The rapid urban growth of recent decades in Iran has resulted in extensive changes in urban fringe land-use patterns.It has also had considerable environmental and socio-economic impacts on these areas.Assessing changes of the past land-use patterns and simulation of their future changes are of vital importance inpolicy making and planning processes. Combination of geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) may producea suitable tool for gathering and analyzingdata regarding land use changes. This articleuses the CA-Markov model to assess and simulate changes in land use patterns in Miandoab city.In the first stage, by using the multi-temporal satellite imagery for the years 1984, 1997 and 2010, the urban and urban fringe cover/land-use maps was created and changes was evaluated. Results indicate thatin the period of 27 years, urban and urban fringe land area increased to 1013 hectares and farm land-use area decreased to 1114 hectares. Then, by using Markov model, matrix of transition area of land-uses for the period of 1984-2010was calculated. In the next stage, the suitability maps of land-uses by using of mulicriteria evaluation methods were created. Finally, for forecasting the future changes of land-uses until the 2025 year, we used the CA-Markov model. Simulation results, indicatethat thedecline trend in farm lands and the trend increase in urban lands will continue. Therefore, if the current trend of changes continues without a sustainable development policy, it will have to a serious downfall in environmental and socio– economic conditions.
Urban Planning
Mir satar Sadrmosavi; Mohammadreza Pourmohammadi; Akbar Rahimi
Volume 19, Issue 54 , February 2016, , Pages 189-209
Abstract
Urban sprawl and land use changes are one of the fundamental challenges facing urban planning in recent years. Therefore, modeling these changes is considered as an important tool by planners, economists, ecologists and environmentalists. This paper is an attempt to apply the Land Transformation Model ...
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Urban sprawl and land use changes are one of the fundamental challenges facing urban planning in recent years. Therefore, modeling these changes is considered as an important tool by planners, economists, ecologists and environmentalists. This paper is an attempt to apply the Land Transformation Model (LTM) for urban land use changes in Tabriz based on artificial neural network and a geographical information system for the in prediction of Tabriz future development. Methodology in this paper is descriptive-analytic and the data are produced from satellite images, urban land use maps and approved plans for Tabriz. For preparation of data and analysis, ERDAS imaging and ArcGIS software, and for training test, simulation and the probable prediction map, LTM software are used. Results in training process, from 1989 to 2005 shows that 21469 cells (50*50 m) were expanded in 16 years period which is according to the real developed area in the same period and this result shows optimum training network. For prediction of probability map, we used Tabriz population and land use per capita was estimated in regional plan of Tabriz, and results illustrate 22484 cells changing until 2021 for future development. The results of the model, have predicted the most developed areas in the northwestern, east and south-east aspects and continuing this process would destroy green spaces, agricultural lands surrounding the city and threaten the environment. Thus, with this expansion, 8437 ha of green spaces and periphery areas will go on the built area. Continued sprawl development not only will destroy urban environment in periphery areas, but it also will disrupt spaces in Tabriz and there by will increase urban development costs such as infrastructure services.
