Rural Planning
somayeh azizi; farhad azizpour; Vahid Riahi; Seyed Amirhossein Garakani; Sajad Amiri
Abstract
Objective: Rural settlements located around cities are continuously changing and transforming from inside and outside under the influence of numerous factors (structures) and forces (mechanisms). In the traditional planning of spaces. especially villages, the future constructive forces are mainly considered ...
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Objective: Rural settlements located around cities are continuously changing and transforming from inside and outside under the influence of numerous factors (structures) and forces (mechanisms). In the traditional planning of spaces. especially villages, the future constructive forces are mainly considered the past constructive forces, and future changes and events are not considered much. However, the driving forces that create the future are sometimes accompanied by uncertainty and can affect the future of the phenomenon under investigation. The current research, with a foresight approach, has set its goal to know the future of the rural settlements of Shahriar Area.
Methods: The study is based on the purpose, applied and analytical-exploratory in nature. The research methodology is of a mixed type (with qualitative-quantitative design). In the qualitative part, semi-structured observation and interview were used to identify factors and driving forces and uncertainties, and in the quantitative part, Delphi questionnaire was used to prioritize and score the driving forces.
Results: Based on the findings, the low institutional capacity, power rent in the policy and planning system, the development of industrial economy, the growth of land speculation, the demographic backwardness of the metropolis of Tehran and the spatial proximity to the metropolis among 18 factors were identified as the main drivers affecting the future of the villages around the cities. According to 12 possible modes of propulsion, three scenarios of stable spatial development, fragile spatial development and unstable spatial development were presented as possible scenarios.
Conclusions: Each of these three scenarios is believable and each has the potential to be realized; But which one happens depends on today's schedule.In the field of domestic and foreign literature, few studies have been conducted on scenario planning, especially in the area of villages around metropolises, with a foresight approach. In addition to the few available resources,
Urban Planning
Shifteh Badrazar; karim Hossinzadeh dalir; Ali Azar
Abstract
A resilient society is able to respond positively to changes or tensions and is able to maintain its core function as a society despite tensions. Natural hazards are one of the main threats to human societies. They overshadow their resilience. Earthquake is one of the most important natural disasters. ...
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A resilient society is able to respond positively to changes or tensions and is able to maintain its core function as a society despite tensions. Natural hazards are one of the main threats to human societies. They overshadow their resilience. Earthquake is one of the most important natural disasters. Earthquakes are basically considered as uncontrollable phenomena. On average, there are 27 catastrophic earthquakes in the world every year, during which 19,000 people die and 36,000 people become homeless.Among these, the geographical area of Iran is one of the accident-prone areas where many natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, storms, droughts, firefighting activities and desertification are examples of which occur every year. In the meantime, the city of Tabriz is one of the largest and most important cities in Iran, which is located in a very high risk area, adjacent to the Tabriz fault and having a population of 1558693 people and the existence of huge human, cultural and History introduces Tabriz as the most dangerous city in terms of earthquake riskAccordingly, Tabriz fault is the most dangerous fault in the country
Urban Planning
shahrivar rostaei; kosar Araghi
Abstract
Today,with the ever-increasing advancement in society,it is becoming a major issue for the society of transformation that has always been and continue.The desire for progress,not be possible without this transformation.The future of human beings is a vague and unknown future,and we must always try to ...
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Today,with the ever-increasing advancement in society,it is becoming a major issue for the society of transformation that has always been and continue.The desire for progress,not be possible without this transformation.The future of human beings is a vague and unknown future,and we must always try to know it with the help of future science.in recent decades, due to changes in events in various social, economic ,environmental and urban spheres, discussions about Urban density and Density.human look to the future also differ.This research, is based on a Futures studies approach, that with the using of descriptive-analytic method focus on the issues of urban congestion and future changes.and for data collection, using library-field-based approach and a new planning perspective (Futures studies) also In order to obtain information and collect relevant expert opinions, use of environmental scanning methods and to identify the proponents , the method of analyzing the interactions / structural effects and MICMAC software and for compiling the of the desired scenarios using the SCENARIOWIZARD software To the most important drivers in it The impact of these propellers on the situation has come to light, and, finally, the development of favorable scenarios in the future state of urban density in Region 2 of Tabriz Municipality will be achieved. At first, 60 effective factors identified in the condensation changes inTabriz city were investigated using a analysis MICMAC software of the 13 impeller agents, then by determining 47 possible probabilities for these13 factors and introducing them into the software the SCENARIOWIZARD, the number of strong scenarios4,and and the number of poor scenarios270 and the number of high-compatibility scenarios11.the analyzes from the scenarios show that the future status of the condensation changes in Tabriz city with the desired and better trend However,we should not forget about the occurrence of critical situations of the future situation.
Rural Planning
ahmad hajarian
Abstract
Corona virus is one of the infectious and infectious diseases of the 21st century that has spread from China to the world since the end of December 2019 and has had many effects and consequences on the social structure of various regions, including rural areas. Rural areas, especially in developing countries, ...
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Corona virus is one of the infectious and infectious diseases of the 21st century that has spread from China to the world since the end of December 2019 and has had many effects and consequences on the social structure of various regions, including rural areas. Rural areas, especially in developing countries, are less prepared to deal with the direct and indirect impact of this crisis. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to study the future of rural social indicators.The results of the first stage were identified using Mick Mac software to identify 5 key factors (family health, anxiety and depression, family food security, family isolation, religious ceremonies and happiness) among 15 factors. These factors were used as the main basis in the following script writing. In the second stage, 15 possible situations were defined for 5 factors. With the analysis performed by Scenario Wizard software, 3 strong scenarios, 20 plausible scenarios based on 15 possible situations related to 5 key drivers were extracted. Also, the results of the study showed that the strongest scenario is that in the post-corona period and the effects it has on social indicators, due to the prevalence of corona, the health of rural households decreases. Anxiety and depression increase. The food security of rural households is also affected by the corona virus, but the isolation of the family before and after the corona does not change. People do not attend ceremonies due to fear before the corona.
Urban Planning
Hassan Mahmoudzadeh; Khalil Gholamnia; Saidmohamad Mousavi
Volume 22, Issue 64 , September 2018, , Pages 267-287
Abstract
The uncontrolled development of the city as a kind of risk arises. Drastic changes in land use around and inside the city limits of good land degradation and environmental pollution that can threaten human health and the environment. This research have taken place to predict the development of the City ...
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The uncontrolled development of the city as a kind of risk arises. Drastic changes in land use around and inside the city limits of good land degradation and environmental pollution that can threaten human health and the environment. This research have taken place to predict the development of the City of Sari and surrounding villages and to achieve the perfect result from satellite imagery of Landsat series (years 1365 and 1394) and layers of information such as distance to fault, distance from the river, distance from Energy lines, sensitivity of rock units, distance from roads, urban development modeling with logistic regression model was used. With using ROC the validity of the model was calculated 0.7603 that confirms the model probability results validity to predict urban growth. After mapping, the possibility of urban development and population growth prediction, two scenarios with historical approaches considering the normal development of the Environmental Approach to conserve forest, garden and water levels for the study area up to the year 1404 were defined and accordingly urban development in the direction lands was limited. According to calculations inside the city of sari within an area of 481.88 hectares and a population of over 50,507 people and in a range of 151.36 hectares outside the city a population of over 12805 people in 1404 will be added. According to results, the management needs to necessary urban and rural administrative measures to comply with environmental issues for urban and rural areas that will be added in the next 10 years.
