Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 PhD Student of Geography and Rural Planning, Human Geography Group, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, Human Geography Group, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor of Natural Disasters Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Objective: Rural settlements located around cities are continuously changing and transforming from inside and outside under the influence of numerous factors (structures) and forces (mechanisms). In the traditional planning of spaces. especially villages, the future constructive forces are mainly considered the past constructive forces, and future changes and events are not considered much. However, the driving forces that create the future are sometimes accompanied by uncertainty and can affect the future of the phenomenon under investigation. The current research, with a foresight approach, has set its goal to know the future of the rural settlements of Shahriar Area.
Methods: The study is based on the purpose, applied and analytical-exploratory in nature. The research methodology is of a mixed type (with qualitative-quantitative design). In the qualitative part, semi-structured observation and interview were used to identify factors and driving forces and uncertainties, and in the quantitative part, Delphi questionnaire was used to prioritize and score the driving forces.
Results: Based on the findings, the low institutional capacity, power rent in the policy and planning system, the development of industrial economy, the growth of land speculation, the demographic backwardness of the metropolis of Tehran and the spatial proximity to the metropolis among 18 factors were identified as the main drivers affecting the future of the villages around the cities. According to 12 possible modes of propulsion, three scenarios of stable spatial development, fragile spatial development and unstable spatial development were presented as possible scenarios.
Conclusions: Each of these three scenarios is believable and each has the potential to be realized; But which one happens depends on today's schedule.In the field of domestic and foreign literature, few studies have been conducted on scenario planning, especially in the area of villages around metropolises, with a foresight approach. In addition to the few available resources,
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