Reza Afrousheh; ali akbar rasoli; Davod Mokhtari; Tahereh Jalali
Abstract
Introduction Changes in occurrence and frequency of extreme events can have more severe and damage effects than changes in the average climatic characteristics (Choi et al, 2008). Therefore, it is important to study the variability and change the behavior of extreme atmospheric events. The main purpose ...
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Introduction Changes in occurrence and frequency of extreme events can have more severe and damage effects than changes in the average climatic characteristics (Choi et al, 2008). Therefore, it is important to study the variability and change the behavior of extreme atmospheric events. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the temperature extreme events using the distribution of generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and non-parametric methods in Kermanshah province. The results of this study can be effective in providing the necessary context for assessing the extent of vulnerability and adaptation methods and strategies to deal with it. Methodology The study area in the present study is Kermanshah province. Because to study the extreme events, the length of the statistical period should be long-term, so in this study, the data of Kermanshah synoptic station, which has a statistical period of 56 years (1961-2016), was used. First, the maximum and minimum daily temperature data for the study period were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of the country and after reconstructing the incomplete data, the quality of the data was checked. The data series were first analyzed by trend and then analyzed by frequency of boundary events. To study and analyze the trend of marginal events, the indicators presented by the National Climate Committee of the World Meteorological Organization and the Climate Change and Prediction Research Program, called ETCCDMI, have been used. In total, the group provided 16 main indices with a major emphasis on temperature limits that can be extracted from a series of recorded daily data (Zhang et al., 2006: 2014.( Results and Discussion Generalized Extreme Value Distribution The present study aimed to analyze the changes in temperature extreme events in the study period using generalized extreme value distribution in Kermanshah province. According to the statistics and information of meteorological stations, this region has a drastic change in terms of climate and is affected every year by dry days without successive rains on the one hand or sudden heavy rains on the other, with a sharp rise or fall in temperature. The results of the Maxima block methods showed that in the study area, the intensity and frequency of cold border events decreased and the intensity and frequency of hot border events increased. Warm nights mean an increase in the percentage of days when the minimum daily temperature is above 90 and hot days mean a percentage of days when the maximum daily temperature is above 90 . The incremental trend is the highest annual value of the minimum daily temperature at the 95% level. The slope of the trend line for the index is 0.04 C in the decade. Conclusion The results showed that concerning cold extreme indices such as frost days, ice days, cold days and nights, the direction of change is negative and with hot extreme indices such as summer days, tropical nights, nights and Hot days the direction of change is positive with a confidence level of 99 percent. Since the rate of increase of the minimum temperature was higher than the maximum temperature, the range of the day and night temperature in the region has decreased. Also, graphs of the values of minimum and maximum temperature polynomials in years of return T with a 95 percent confidence interval were plotted. According to the above diagrams, we can estimate the extreme values of the desired parameter for the specified return period.
Shahrivar Rustaee; Mohsen Ahadnejad; Akbar Asgharizamani; Alireza Zangane; Shahram Saeedi
Volume 19, Issue 53 , September 2015, , Pages 137-166
Abstract
Abstract Informal Settlements, resulting from swift urbanization in the contemporary world and the socioeconomic inequalities across regions, have made cities-especially metropolises like Kermanshah, Iran- face a great deal of problems. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the informal settlements ...
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Abstract Informal Settlements, resulting from swift urbanization in the contemporary world and the socioeconomic inequalities across regions, have made cities-especially metropolises like Kermanshah, Iran- face a great deal of problems. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the informal settlements of Dolat Abad and Shater Abad in Kermanshah. To this end, an analytic-quantitative method with an applied approach was used, and the statistical population of the research consisted of Dolat Abad and Shater Abad settlements, based in western and eastern Kermanshah, respectively. So, the information on the statistical blocks in 2006 and 30 indexes, changed into three combined factors, were analyzed by factor analysis, Arc/GIS and Arc/View Software. As for Dolat Abad settlement, the results showed that 20 blocks (11.1% of the population) had appropriate states in terms of poverty, and 31 (17.2%), 57 (31.7%), 50 (27.8%) and 16 blocks (8.9%) held relatively appropriate, average, relatively inappropriate and inappropriate states in terms of poverty, respectively. Furthermore, the results of evaluation of poverty in Shater Abad settlement demonstrated that 12 blocks (4.5% of the population) had inappropriate states in terms of poverty, and 74 (28%), 92 (34.8%), 60 (22.7%) and 13 blocks (4.9%) held relatively inappropriate, average, relatively appropriate and appropriate states in terms of poverty, respectively. In addition, the results of the present study suggested that the residential blocks based in Kermanshah were sites for manifestation of social, economic, cultural and structural distinctions. These settlements symbolize poverty and go through a different process in terms of dynamics, and more to the point, the existence of inequality across the urban areas of Kermanshah has led to spatial, social and economic segregation. Not to mention, the results of the present work were dependent on the applied indexes, which may be affected through applying other ones.
Asghar Zarabi; Azam Safarabadi
Volume 17, Issue 46 , February 2014, , Pages 147-170
Abstract
Ecotourism or nature tourism is one of the branches of tourism that is based on natural attractions. Ecotourism industry includes strategies to identify areas of prone nature and the planning for these areas to attract ecotourists and create the infrastructure facilities for them. City of Kermanshah ...
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Ecotourism or nature tourism is one of the branches of tourism that is based on natural attractions. Ecotourism industry includes strategies to identify areas of prone nature and the planning for these areas to attract ecotourists and create the infrastructure facilities for them. City of Kermanshah is among regions with interesting scenery which enjoys rich cultural and historical attractions in the field of tourism. This study tries to evaluate the challenges and opportunities of nature tourism of this city using SWOT strategic model and to present appropriate strategies to achieve sustainable ecotourism for the region. It is a descriptive-analytical study and data collection is done using library, survey and documentary methods. The results of this study indicate that pristine nature and high ecotourism capabilities with a score of 0.45 and varied climate with a score of 0.32 are among the most important strengths. Lack of proper introduction of the region attractions with a score of 0.32 is the most important weakness. Job creation with score of 0.36 and visits management with a score of 0.28 are the most important opportunities and Lack of organized and studied programs with a score of 0.40 are the most important threats to the sustainable development in ecotourism of the area.
