Urban Planning
sajjad racabi; Reza valizade; daryosh satarzadeh; ali panahi; ghorban Mahboubi
Abstract
Introduction
The metropolis of Tabriz is considered as one of the mother cities of Iran and the most populous city of East Azerbaijan province and the center of administrative and political services to the northwest of the country. For more than 100 years, this metropolis has always been one of the ...
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Introduction
The metropolis of Tabriz is considered as one of the mother cities of Iran and the most populous city of East Azerbaijan province and the center of administrative and political services to the northwest of the country. For more than 100 years, this metropolis has always been one of the economic hubs of Iran and has been one of the gateways to Iran and the arrival of technology and social developments in Iran. The special position of this city has led to its rapid and unbridled growth. The economic and industrial position of this city has always welcomed a wide range of rural and urban immigrants from different parts of Iran. Immigration of this city has led to insufficient urban services, formation of informal neighborhoods, occurrence of social anomalies, urban traffic, air pollution, social inequality, inefficiency of urban management and so on. Therefore, the city of Tabriz, due to its population in recent decades, has faced the problem of injustice in the distribution of municipal services. Considering the importance of studying this issue, it can be said that the main purpose of this study is to find a scientific answer to the question of what is the quality of citizens' access to public uses in the city of Tabriz? What is the situation of different areas of the city in terms of the studied indicators? And finally, what are the practical suggestions for improving the current situation of Tabriz in the field of improving social justice?
Data and Method
This research is based on the applied purpose and based on the descriptive-analytical nature, the required information has been obtained in the form of library and field. The reference for collecting the information required for this research through a comprehensive and detailed plan of the city of Tabriz, was the preparation of a special questionnaire to collect information from relevant institutions (municipality, cultural heritage, health network, education, etc.). In order to grade the levels of spatial justice, 9 variables of cultural-artistic, educational, administrative-disciplinary, medical, park and green space, religious, urban equipment and urban facilities have been used. To do this, the weight of each criterion has been determined using Shannon entropy method and to analyze the data, multi-criteria decision making method of Vicor, TOPSIS, Prometheus and integration model (Copeland) has been used. Also, GIS v10.5 software has been used to draw a spatial map related to the prioritization of urban areas of Tabriz in terms of the studied indicators.
Results and Discussion
As the results of the research showed using the three models of Vicor, Topsis and Prometheus, the prioritization of the ten districts of Tabriz in terms of the nine criteria of social justice, had different priorities. Therefore, in order to integrate the results and provide the final prioritization, the Copeland integration model was used. In the Copeland method to classify the areas of Tabriz city, the numerical range of 9 and 9 (6 to 9 is highly enjoyed, 3 to 6 is enjoyed, 3 to 3- is relatively enjoyed, 3- to 6- is relatively deprived and 6- to 6- is deprived) is used. It becomes. The results of Copeland method, which is obtained by combining the results of three models of Vicor, Topsis and Prometheus, show that areas 6 and 8 of Tabriz metropolis are in a very good position in terms of spatial justice. Zone 3 is in a privileged state, Zones 2, 7, 10 and 1 are in a relatively prosperous state, Zone 5 is in a relatively deprived state and Zone 9 is in a deprived state.
Conclusion
In general, it can be said that in terms of priority of Tabriz urban areas in terms of social justice criteria, economic and commercial factors are more effective and have a greater role than other components. And the more financial institutions, the higher the score compared to other regions.It should be noted that in this study and other similar studies, access to urban public services and social justice has been examined from a quantitative approach without regard to its quality, while in the field of social justice, the quality of uses as well as The quality of access to public services is more important than its quantity, so it is suggested that in future research, the issue of social justice be considered from a quality approach.
Geomorphology
Mousa Abedini; Vida Irani; Fariba Esfanyari darabad
Abstract
Introduction According to the results of this study, Tabriz metropolis does not have a favorable situation in terms of earthquake risk, and most densely populated parts of the city, especially the northern and central parts, are in very high and high vulnerability zones. Milani and Nemati (2015), ...
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Introduction According to the results of this study, Tabriz metropolis does not have a favorable situation in terms of earthquake risk, and most densely populated parts of the city, especially the northern and central parts, are in very high and high vulnerability zones. Milani and Nemati (2015), studied the geological indices, tectonics and seismicity of faults in Lut and Jazmourian basins. Their work’s results showed that both basins have active tectonics, but the western margin of Shahdad basin has high to medium activity and Jazmourian basin has little activity. Shayan and Zare (2013) investigated and determined the seismic hazard ranges in active alluvial fans by barbarian spatial analysis method, and the results of their research showed that Garmsar and Sorkh Sokoot faults have the highest seismic potential and Lalehzar and lower Qaleh mountain faults have the lowest. Rajabi and Aghajani (2010) investigated faults and seismicity and seismic hazard in the northeast of Lake Urmia. Their studies in the region led to three important classifications. Rabati et al. (2015) studied active tectonics using geomorphological indices in the Sefidrud basin of western Alborz and their results indicated that sub-basins corresponding to dense fault zones show high measurement indices. Data and Method In order to achieve the objectives of this study, the data of topographic map 1: 25000 of the surveying organization, region’s geological map of 1: 100000, region’s aerial photographs of 1: 50000, 1: 20000 and 1: 40000, Landsat 8 satellite images related to the year 2020, as well as digital elevation model map were used. Using the existing relationships, geomorphological indices were calculated and necessary analyses were performed. The seismic potential of active faults in the region was calculated using the formulas of Zare (1995), Ashjaei and Vorozi (1978), and Wells and Coopersmith (1994). In addition, the spatial analysis method was used to analyse and determine the seismic risk. In this study, the method proposed by Barbarian et al. in spatial analysis was used. The steps of this method are as follows: first, faults with a length of more than 10 km are identified. Then, faults with a length of 5 to 10 km are identified and added to the first category of faults, and configuration operations are applied based on the distances to the source of the earthquake and the faults. Then, the extracted map is overlapped with the land use map to determine the location of human settlements in the danger zones of fault lines, and the map resulting from the sensitivity of the region's formations from the point of view of resistance, and finally the final map of earthquake danger configuration and the position of highly populated centres is obtained based on the level of risk-taking. Results and Discussion The most important factor in the structural development of Alborz is the existence of driven and inverted faults that are located along this mountain range. Astara fault is one of Alborz’s most important faults. This fault is one of the most important geological structures in the northwest of the country, and the occurrence of destructive historical earthquakes has increased its importance. In this regard, the activities of major and minor faults of this region and the resulting seismic potential were investigated and analysed in this study. In the present work, based on the analyses performed by remote sensing of satellite and GIS and the implementation of processes such as principal component analysis, band composition, Hillshid and filtering of satellite images indicating structures, there are definite line structures in the study area. In this regard, 25 fault lines were identified in the study area. The presence of fault lines in the study area indicates tectonic activities there. In fact, the fault lines extracted from the satellite image show different faults, especially in the north-eastern, north-western, western and south-eastern parts of the study area. Yamani and Alizadeh (2016) also achieved similar results in the study of tectonic activities of the Karaj watershed using satellite imagery and geomorphological indicators. Also, based on the results of the study, among the methods used to identify faults in the study area, the methods of applying directional filters, principal component analysis and Hilshid have had a great impact on the proper identification of faults. This can be due to the feature of edge highlighting in directional filters, and also the presence of more than 80% of the information in the first band of the principal component analysis. In addition, fault lines that were not identified by the above two methods were extracted using the Hillshid method. Based on the results of the used indicators, most of the basins have high tectonic activities in the study area, and the morphological characteristics of the studied catchments are under the influence of fault lines in the area. ConclusionThe results of the relatively active tectonic index showed that basins 1 and 2 in the eastern parts of the study area had the highest tectonic activities. In the present study, the calculations performed in GIS and Excel software were calculated using the equations provided by Norouzi and Ashjaei, Zare, and Wells and Coopersmith, and the average seismic power of Astara fault was equal to 6.9 Richter, Neur fault equal to 7 Richter, Hir fault equal to 6.2 Richter, and Sangour fault equal to 4.8 Richter. In general, the average seismic power for the main and secondary faults in the study area based on Nowruz and Ashjaei, Nowruzi, and Wells and Coopersmith equations was estimated to be 5.844, 5.710 and 6.517, respectively. Also, in addition to calculating the seismicity, spatial analysis method was used to determine the risk of faults. The results showed that most of the settlements in the study area are located at a distance of 3000 to 10,000 meters from the fault lines. The results indicate three hazardous zones in the study area. Shayan et al. (2013), in a similar study, determined the earthquake risk zones in the Garmsar alluvial fan using the GIS and concluded that most of the residential centres in their investigated study area are located at a distance of 3000 to 7000 meters from the fault lines.
Urban Planning
Akram Ali mohammadi; Sadra Motevalli; Azita Rajabi
Abstract
Introduction
The resilient internal transportation system network is a system that is able to absorb the negative effects of turbulences, reorganize them and continue their function. Resilience is directly related to sustainability. The inaccurate usage of available capacities may reduce its` resilience ...
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Introduction
The resilient internal transportation system network is a system that is able to absorb the negative effects of turbulences, reorganize them and continue their function. Resilience is directly related to sustainability. The inaccurate usage of available capacities may reduce its` resilience and provide environment with irrecoverable harms. The main purpose of this research is to recognize the most effective managerial strategies in the resilience of internal transportation network with the emphasis on accessing environmental sustainable development in Tehran region one and provide a schema for it.
Currently, transportation used in urban communities is not stable due to the problems and challenges that occur in it. This instability has manifested itself in the first place in the excessive consumption of energy and fuels, then in the reduction of resources and finally in the increase of air pollution, even globally. Also, major problems and inadequacies in urban transportation affect the economy, society and urban environment as the main indicators of sustainability, which has made it more necessary to pay attention to the issue of sustainability and resilience of urban transportation. Given the existing problems with intercity transportation and low resilience at the city level; The present article seeks to achieve resilience methods of urban transportation by using management strategies to achieve sustainable environmental development in area one of Tehran in 1399.
Method
The method of present study is survey analytic and the sample group were 100 managers and experts of internal transportation network in Tehran region one during 2019 that were participated in purposive sampling method in the study. The data was gathered through researcher self-made questionnaire; through the factor analysis five factors of 1. Organizational capacity improvement (5 items) 2. Systematic management (9 items) 3. Risks` reduction (4 items) 4. Subtraction utilization (5 items) and 5. Information technology usage (3 items) were recognized and afterward, managerial strategies schema in internal transportation system network of Tehran region one was designed and based on that, it is possible to accurately and efficiently plan to improve managerial strategies and functions in internal transportation system network and environmental sustainable development.
Discussion and Results
The current transportation system of region one of Tehran has major limitations such as low share of public transportation, high share of single-passenger cars, increasing distance between business and non-business trips, and inadequate structure and quality of the road network for pedestrian or use transportation. It suffers from cycling, which has led to complications such as traffic congestion, lack of stops, increased pollution, reduced mobility, increased fuel consumption and wasted energy. Policies and measures taken in response to the problems have had little success, mainly due to inconsistencies in planning and implementation on the one hand and a lack of comprehensiveness and foresight on the other. In addition, due to its high population density, the concentration of most administrative and economic centers in it and its special position in terms of geology, this region is one of the most sensitive areas in Tehran. Given the exposure to the threats posed by its location in the region, identifying the most effective strategic management indicators in transport network resilience necessitates research. Considering the current environmental situation of this region, such as the reduction of green space and open spaces, uncontrolled and non-standard construction, increasing the types of environmental pollution in this study has tried to examine and identify the most important and effective indicators. Strategic management strategies in the resilience of the intra-city transportation network In order to achieve sustainable environmental development, a model should be designed to measure and evaluate the resilience of intra-city transportation.
Conclusion
This paper was presented with the title of strategic management model of resilience of urban transportation network with emphasis on achieving sustainable environmental development in area one of Tehran in 1399. In this paper, preliminary indicators were extracted according to the studies, including research background, concepts and theoretical foundations related to the subject, criteria and components of resilience, sustainable environmental development, urban transportation network, and by interviewing elites and Specialists in transportation, traffic and urban management and the use of factor analysis techniques, five criteria: organizational capacity improvement, system management, risk reduction, use of alternative vehicle infrastructure, increasing the use of information technology were identified and prioritized. The results of this research are based on the theories of Cohen's development model with three economic dimensions with the aim of progress, social with the aim of equality and poverty reduction, ecological with the aim of natural resources and prismatic model of sustainability, sustainable development in four dimensions: environmental-economic-social and physical. Emphasizes on reducing ownership and use of personal vehicles, reducing fuel consumption, reducing traffic congestion and various pollutions.
Urban Planning
Esmail Isazade; Tahir Prizadi; vahid isazade
Abstract
IntroductionTypically, in developing countries, urban growth exceeds the capacity of governments and municipalities to provide services and infrastructure suitable for the population. This category will exacerbate urban poverty in cities, especially large cities in these countries.Data and Method The ...
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IntroductionTypically, in developing countries, urban growth exceeds the capacity of governments and municipalities to provide services and infrastructure suitable for the population. This category will exacerbate urban poverty in cities, especially large cities in these countries.Data and Method The purpose of this study is to empower poverty in the neighborhood of Ismail Abad, District 19 of Tehran Municipality. This research is applied in terms of purpose and part of descriptive-analytical research in terms of method. The statistical population of the present study is the Ismailabad neighborhood, District 19 of Tehran Municipality. First, using economic, socio-cultural, and physical indicators, the areas of urban poverty in the Ismail neighborhood, District 19 of Tehran Abad Municipality were identified.Results and DiscussionThe weighting of the research indices was taken using the Shannon entropy method, then the Vikor quantitative leveling model was used to rank the indices. ARC GIS software has been used to display and analyze the poor urban space in the neighborhood of Ismail Abad, District 19. Also, using the QSPM model, internal and external strategies were identified in which non-governmental organizations and non-governmental organizations were considered as the most important motivating factor in empowering poverty at the neighborhood level and after identifying the target neighborhood. The use of the SWOT technique has been done to improve this place due to planning problems and limitations.ConclusionThe results indicate that urban poverty has been discovered in neighborhoods located on the outskirts of the city. To solve the problems of the residents of the target neighborhood, local spontaneous reinforcers in creating solidarity and maintaining the neighborhood identity, recognizing development potentials, educating residents and raising people's awareness, implementing empowerment plans to control the neighborhood.
Urban Planning
Mohammad Ezzati; Karim Hosseinzade Delir; Mohamad reza Pourmohammadi
Abstract
IntruductionThe emergence of metropolitan areas is one of the most important phenomena of 20th century. This phenomenon happened primarily as a result of concentration of wealth in the most important cities of the world and then decentralization of population and activities in bigger areas along with ...
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IntruductionThe emergence of metropolitan areas is one of the most important phenomena of 20th century. This phenomenon happened primarily as a result of concentration of wealth in the most important cities of the world and then decentralization of population and activities in bigger areas along with political, social, economic and industrial processes. Nowadays the metropolitan regions face different challenges including: population distribution and activities in the region, lack of territorial balance, the process of physical growth of cities, the distribution of facilities among residents and etc. All of these have created problems for the municipal management of the city.Data and MethodThe present study, with its brief view on regionalist thoughts, tries to analyze the process of growth and distribution of population in the metropolitan region of Tabriz. The method of present research has been descriptive (library) -analytical so as to answer the main question of the research : “ How has the interaction of population of Tabriz with surrounding urban points been ?” by collecting data based on documentary and library method and using approved plans and existing statistics and reports .Results and DiscussionThe present article tries to present solutions for improving the territorial planning and appropriate distribution of population in the metropolitan region of Tabriz. The results reveal that the rapid growth of urbanization in Tabriz has led to deep distance between population of this city and the surrounding cities.ConclusionIn the past few decades in so far as the blueprint of distribution of population in the aforementioned region has been unplanned and it has not followed an appropriate order in proportion to the potentials and capacities and this has caused the management of Tabriz and the metropolitan region many problems. If this continues, this area will face even more problems.
Rural Planning
sirous ghanbari; Azam Bordbar Galavi
Abstract
IntrouductionIn recent years, the role of enterprises (high-yield) in developed countries as well as developing countries is increasing. Enterprises are one of the most important and vital units active in today's societies that can be helped to solve the problem of unemployment, increase production and ...
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IntrouductionIn recent years, the role of enterprises (high-yield) in developed countries as well as developing countries is increasing. Enterprises are one of the most important and vital units active in today's societies that can be helped to solve the problem of unemployment, increase production and national exports with proper planning as well as supportive and regulatory solutions. But today, these enterprises face many obstacles. According to available statistics, about 23% of small units in the first year and about 42% at the end of the fifth year have failed for various reasons and have been forced to stop operating. Zabol city Enterprises, Islamabad and Hosseinabad districts are no exception to this rule. Due to lack of necessary skills and expertise, the majority of residents in these areas are not attracted to the formal sector of the urban economy and are employed in informal jobs. Considering that about 90% of the economic enterprises in these neighborhoods are serviced and commercial enterprises, and due to the unfavorable economic situation and low income, these enterprises cannot survive in the field of competition, and as a result, the owner enterprises are forced to close down. Considering the importance of the development of economic enterprises in Sistan region and its important role on the sustainability of employment and even continuoued job creation, the above article aims to investigate the obstacles to the development of economic enterprises in Islamabad and Hosseinabad neighborhoods.Data and MethodThe method in this research is descriptive-analytical. The statistical population of this research is economic enterprises located in Islamabad and Hosseinabad neighborhoods (226) which then, according to the number of economic enterprises in the above neighborhoods (142 enterprises), 142 enterprises have been calculated as the sample size of enterprises using Cochran's formula at 95% confidence level. Of these, 88 enterprises in Islamabad neighborhood and 54 enterprises are located in Hosseinabad neighborhood. To collect information, in addition to library studies and field observations and interviews with enterprise owners, indicators appropriate for the enterprises in the study area were determined. Based on the determined indicators, the studied enterprises questionnaires have been prepared. To analyze the data, Shannon and Saw entropy multivariate decision weighting models have been used. Also, in order to analyze the data, SPSS software was used along with one-sample t-test. Results and DiscussionIn order to assess the barriers to the development of enterprises in (Islam Abad and Hossein Abad neighborhoods), several methods are used, which are different based on the purpose of the study and the expertise level and analysis method. In order to determine the weight and importance of the selected indicators using the opinions of the respondents, the entropy coefficient was used. Finally, in order to obtain accurate final results, the final weight obtained for the indicators was multiplied by the data (items) obtained from the respondents' questionnaire. The weight assigned to each selected indicator is calculated and presented. Political obstacles (lack of a single trustee in the field of development of small and medium enterprises, problems for exporting goods inside and outside the country), weighing 0.246, have the highest amount of obstacles. Financial barriers (disproportion of capital and labor, fluctuations in raw material prices, retail sales of products, trade sanctions on Iran, high inflation in the country, financial problems of enterprises, reduced liquidity, high bank interest rates) with a weight of 0.200 has second rank and skills-training barriers (lack of labor skills, low level of education in the labor force, unwillingness to consult marketing, weakness in economic, financial and managerial knowledge); With a weight of 0.189, it has third rank. Then, indicators of legal obstacles (necessary instability in regulations, rules and policies of foreign exchange and trade, lack of timely implementation of government incentive policies such as tax exemptions and export bonuses, insufficient facilities and financial and non-financial support provided by small and medium enterprises, administrative barriers to receiving facilities, lack of specialized banks to pay facilities to small enterprises, lack of unity of procedure between banks in providing facilities to enterprises, the existence of numerous and sometimes contradictory laws in the country) with a weight of 0.188, have fourth rank and indicators of infrastructure barriers (weakness of local constructions, being in the false place, lack of suitable bandwidth for the Internet) with a weight of 0.187 have the lowest rank. Also, in describing the barriers to the development of enterprises in the studied neighborhoods based on the saw method, an Islam Abad neighborhood with a final score 0.507 has the highest and Hossein Abad with 0.490 has the lowest level of development barriers.ConclusionComparing the results of the present study with other similar studies shows that some of the results are consistent and contradictory. According to the research findings, political barriers (lack of a single trustee in the field of development of small and medium-sized enterprises, problems for exporting goods inside and outside the country), weighing 0.246, have highest number of barriers to the development of enterprises. These results are consistent with the findings of the study (Rezaei and colleague, 2015). In the study of Rezaei and colleague, among the six factors extracted, the political-infrastructural factor with a value 3.715 alone explains 17.38% of the total variance. Also, the third barrier for the development of economic enterprises was the financial barriers that have been emphasized in the research (Zargar and Beidakhti, 2011).
Rural Planning
Zainab Rahimi; Mehdi Karami Dehkordi
Abstract
Introduction
Sustainable livelihood approach is one of the new approaches in sustainable rural development that has been considered to reduce poverty and rural development. This approach focuses on the diversity and increase of various rural activities and emphasizes the diversity and increase of various ...
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Introduction
Sustainable livelihood approach is one of the new approaches in sustainable rural development that has been considered to reduce poverty and rural development. This approach focuses on the diversity and increase of various rural activities and emphasizes the diversity and increase of various rural activities. Sustaining the sustainable livelihood of the villagers in today's world is one of the priorities that should use the various assets (natural, human, financial, physical and social) of the villagers to improve and enhance their livelihood. The general purpose of this study is to evaluate the living conditions of rural communities in Darrehshahr city using SLF approach and CIPP model. Took. The total size of the statistical population was 16.140 households and the sample size was determined using Cochran's formula of 380 people.To analyze the data, descriptive and inferential statistical methods were used using SPSS software. The obtained results show that there is a significant difference between the studied villages in terms of livelihood assets. Friedman test also shows that the share of natural assets is higher in the studied villages and the share of human, social, natural, physical and financial assets is 3.39, 3.30, 3.59, 1.33, 3.39, respectively.
Data and Method
The present research is non-experimental in terms of application type, non-experimental in terms of data collection and survey type. The statistical population of the study includes 16140 rural households living in Darhshahr city, which has a population of about 58429. The sample size was obtained based on Cochran's formula of 380 households. The data collection tool in this study is a structured and researcher-made questionnaire. SPSS software was used to analyze the data. The collection tools in this research include library and field methods. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed using a panel of experts, and for the reliability of Cronbach's alpha used, its total value (0.73) was obtained. The independent variables of this research include five variables (human, physical, social, natural and financial) and the dependent variable is sustainable livelihood. The following hypotheses have been used in this study.
Results and Discussion
The results show that among 380 respondents, 60.86% were men and 90.12% were women, of which 2.14% were literate, 17.4% were middle school students, 9.33% were diploma students, and 6.6% were graduates. , 14.2% were associates and 6.6% were bachelors and above. Also, 3.70% were self-employed, 3.19% were government employees, 8.5% were retired, 1.8% were unemployed and 9.2% were students.
Conclusion
Regarding physical capital, the findings showed that the situation of marketing of agricultural products and products and the infrastructure of agricultural activities is very weak, while the main livelihood of the villages under study is provided by agriculture. .
Regarding the natural factors, the findings showed that the recent droughts have had the greatest impact on the living conditions of the studied villages, which is consistent with the results of Bazrafshan et al. 1397 and Darban Astana et al., 1397.
Regarding financial factors, the findings showed that fluctuations related to agricultural products have a great impact on people's lives. Also, the findings showed that investment to create employment by the government and the willingness of the private sector to invest in the villages studied is very low It is very high, which is consistent with the results of research by Weiss et al., 2017
. Regarding humanities, the findings showed that the level of access to educational services on livelihood and employment issues, unemployment rate at different ages and the status of courses and educational programs related to livelihood is very low. Which is in accordance with the results of Jamehpour and Ahmadi research, 2011. Also, the spirit of cooperation and cooperation and family relations among the residents of the studied villages is high in terms of livelihood activities, which is consistent with the results of Bazrafshan et al. 1397.
Regarding social factors, the findings showed that the tendency of villagers to urban life and the departure of labor and youth migration to urban areas is very high, which contradicts the results of research by Jomehpour and Ahmadi, 2011. Also, the level of use of media and social networks is very low.
Rural Planning
Mansour Ghanian; Omid M. Ghoochani; latif mohammadzadeh
Abstract
IntroductionClimate change is one of the main environmental challenges facing the world today and the results of studies and forecasts indicate that it is ever expanding. These changes, in addition to the environment, directly and indirectly affect the social, cultural and economic sectors of the countries ...
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IntroductionClimate change is one of the main environmental challenges facing the world today and the results of studies and forecasts indicate that it is ever expanding. These changes, in addition to the environment, directly and indirectly affect the social, cultural and economic sectors of the countries of the world. In recent years due to observing evidences of climate change in hydrological variables, concerns have been arisen regarding variations of renewable water resources under climate change in developing countries. Among various types of economic sectors, agriculture is one of the most sensitive economic sectors in terms of climate change phenomena such as temperature rise and evapotranspiration, decreasing precipitation and melting, reducing surface and underground water resources, and etc. Therefore, the effects of climate change on agriculture have become one of the hottest academic topics around the world. In this regards, farmers are always considered as the most vulnerable groups against global climate change, and the vulnerability of them to the region and even beyond them can be examined. Therefore, this study, with a sociological approach, attempted to identify factors affecting the intention of farmers to adapt to climate change. In this regard, due to the role of traditional beliefs in the management of agricultural affairs in rural communities of Iran, a conceptual framework was designed combining two theories PMT and cultural values.MethodologyA survey was conducted to address the main goal of the present study from July 2018 through February 2019 in Marvdasht Township. The farmers of Marvdasht Township considered as the statistical population of this study, which among them 256 farmers selected based on Cochran formula as the statistical sample using simple random sampling method. The research’s instrument was a researcher-made questionnaire which its reliability was confirmed by using Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the main scales of the questionnaire (α = 0.70 to 0.83) and also, its validity was confirmed by a panel of experts (faculty members of rural developments, agricultural extension, agro-ecology and agro-climate specialists) prior to the launch of the study. Data analysis was carried out using SPSS (V20) and AMOS (V20) software.Results and discussionThe results showed that proposed theoretical framework of this study has a good fit with data and has the predication potential of famers’ adaptation intention towards climate-change. According to the literature review in can be understand that combination of two both theories (protection motivation theory and cultural theory), is suitable for investigating the underlying factors influencing farmers’ adaptation intention towards climate change. For example, Hemayatkhah and Ghorbani (2016), explained 28 of the farmers’ adaptation intention towards climate change using the cultural values theory. Also, Azadi et al., (2014) showed that the protection motivation theory can predict 34% of the farmers' adaptation behavior in confronting climate change. Therefore, it is suggested that in the future studies, the conceptual model of this study should be used to assess farmers' adaptation intentions towards climate change. The results revealed that egalitarianism has a positive influence on farmers’ belief in climate change. Although fatalism has a negative effect on farmers’ adaptation intention towards climate change. This illustrates the contradiction between these two groups of people as well as the accountability of egalitarianism people and the lack of accountability of fatalism people to climate change. The results also, showed that individualism have a negative impact on subjective norms of farmers towards climate change. The results indicated that, adaptation intention of farmers towards climate change is affected by belief in climate change and the adaptation assessment positively, whilst maladaptation to climate change has a negative effect on farmers’ adaptation intention. Moreover, belief in climate change has a positive impact on farmers’ maladaptation to climate change. In this regard, it could be argued that, farmers who have personal experience of the negative consequences of climate change-related events, such as drought, or have seen farms that have been affected by climate change phenomena with severe product cuts, will try to prevent the occurrence of these incidents for themselves by applying adaptive practices.ConclusionThere is a consensus that awareness of farmers' intentions against climate change in order to understand the factors affecting their intention to adapt to environmental threats, such as climate change, in government policies and programs. In other words, recognizing the intentions of farmers as a management element can help planners of various executive sectors, especially the agricultural sector in a sustainable management. Iran experienced an extensive climate change and drawdown trend of the water level in recent years which poses negative impacts on the environment and agriculture. In this way, understanding the farmers’ adaptation intention to climate change can help to generate suitable policy solutions. Based on the results, belief in climate change has the most positive effect on the farmers’ adaptation intention towards climate change. In fact, information is crucial in shaping farmers’ perception of climate change risk and the effectiveness of adaptive measures. Incorrect information may lead to maladaptation which, in turn, influences the adaptation intention and behavioral response. As such, agricultural extension services are important in supporting farmers with technical knowledge of adaptive measures. Also, according to the results, it is important use of farmland visits, training courses on climate change threats, how to adapt to this challenge, and farm management. The lack of timely adaptation in agriculture may hamper prosperous farm developments by neglecting risks and opportunities emerging from climate change. It is also suggested that agricultural extension agents, using cultural values of farmers try to better understand the relationship between farmers and the environment and use it in their work plans. Because each of the groups has separate and unique needs and perhaps their educational and extensional methods are also very different.
GIS&RS
keramatollah ziari; hossein iraji
Abstract
Introduction As the center of the province of Fars, the City of Shiraz experienced an endogenic and organic growth until the 1960s and prior to the onset of modernity in Iran, which saw a good balance between the urban population growth rate and its area growth. Following a rise in the urban population ...
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Introduction As the center of the province of Fars, the City of Shiraz experienced an endogenic and organic growth until the 1960s and prior to the onset of modernity in Iran, which saw a good balance between the urban population growth rate and its area growth. Following a rise in the urban population in recent decades, the physical form of the cites also changed.Data and Method To investigate the changes and dynamism of the land cover, land use maps were developed to determine the changes over different time intervals. The maps were derived from Landsat satellite images with OLI, TM and Mss sensors in 1984 and 1994 as well as in 2014 and 2020 by using Remote Sensing techniques on the Earth Explorer Site. TerrSet software was also used to analyze the images. To analyze satellite images, it is required to use TerrSet software.Discussion and conclusionConsistent with regression model analysis, land use changes into urban territories have, over the past 40 years, involved 60% of the total area of the city of Shiraz, indicating sharp change trends in this time interval. The orientation of the changes has mainly been north to south of the city which is due to the proportionate developmental space and presence of open plains.Results Data analysis suggests that land use changes as well as their analysis in the Markov’s model are experiencing a disproportionate expansion under the effect of unsystematic and irregular urban growth. This study determines that districts 9, 10 and 6 saw an irregular (spiral) urban growth in 2018.
Urban Planning
atefeh farajollahi; mahamad reza pormahamdy; rahim heydari chianeh; Davod Mokhtari
Abstract
IntroductionIn recent years, the issue of sustainable development in urban areas has been one of the most important topics among researchers, professors and urban planning experts, and although many questions have been focused on what should be done and how to solve these challenges and how to do it. ...
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IntroductionIn recent years, the issue of sustainable development in urban areas has been one of the most important topics among researchers, professors and urban planning experts, and although many questions have been focused on what should be done and how to solve these challenges and how to do it. (Pourmohammadi, 2003: 1) But in reality, effective solutions are few and the need to renew the attitude to the city and, of course, urban planning, is more evident than ever. Cities face many challenges in the economic, social and environmental fields. At the same time, the increase in population along with the increasing proportion of urbanization has brought harmful consequences for cities. Continuation of such urban growth with social, economic, and environmental problems is critical and is a warning of urban instability, which in turn has severely affected livability in cities (Sasanpour et al., 2014: 29). In this regard, reducing social, cultural, service problems, strengthening the spirit of citizen participation in urban affairs, restoring peace, comfort and beauty to urban environments, implementing social justice effectively and restoring security in various dimensions, all in the hands of management It is an optimal city (Hosseinzadeh Dalir et al., 2012: 161). In this study, which has been conducted with the aim of studying the situation of livability in the regions of Tabriz, while comparatively comparing the situation of regions based on objective and subjective approaches, has identified the key components affecting the promotion of livability. The main question of the research is what is the situation of different areas of Tabriz in terms of livability? And what factors affect the improvement of livability in these areas?Data and MethodsDescriptive-analytical method and questionnaire tools (at two levels of citizens and experts) have been used. In this regard, one-sample t-test in SPSS software environment, Vicker's multi-attribute decision model and interaction / structural impact analysis method were used using Mick Mac software to analyze the data. The statistical population of this study was the residents of 10 districts of Tabriz, and the statistical sample was selected based on stratified sampling method and the proportion of population share of the regions using simple random sampling method.Results and DiscussionThe physical dimension, based on the opinions of experts and the sample t-test, has an average of 3.28, which is above average. The value of this dimension, according to citizens, is equal to 3.20 above average (theoretical average of 3). According to the opinions of the citizens of District 9 and according to the opinions of experts, District 1 is in the first place. The results of Vickor analysis also show the first rank of Region 2 in terms of viability. Regarding the effective factors obtained from Mick Mac software, the results show that the renovation of worn tissue and the improvement of marginal tissue are key influential factors.ConclusionIn the section of biodegradability analysis, based on objective criteria, 8 criteria were used and the areas were ranked according to their per capita related to urban uses using the Victor technique. The ranking of the regions is; Zones 2, 9, 5, 1, 6, 7, 3, 4, 9 and 10. Regarding the analysis of key factors affecting urban livability, cross-structural / structural analysis method was used. This was done in the Mic Mac software environment. The results show that in order of factors; Creating employment and sustainable income, renovating worn-out structures, improving suburban structures, providing adequate housing, developing green and open spaces, and providing infrastructure services are key factors. Considering this, it can be said that among the 10 areas of Tabriz metropolis, we are witnessing a spatial imbalance in terms of livability, and the optimal management of the mentioned cases plays an important role in eliminating this spatial imbalance. Based on this, it can be acknowledged that achieving viability requires an attitude similar to a living organism that people and place are two sides of this living organism.
Urban Planning
ebrahim zahedikelaki; Sadra Motevalli; hassan mahmoudzadeh; Gholamreza Ganbaz ghobadi
Abstract
Introduction
The trend of urban change and subsequent changes in the ecological structure of Behshahr city during the last 34 years has caused many environmental problems. So that the horizontal expansion of the city to the four directions and consequently the increase of ecological footprint ...
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Introduction
The trend of urban change and subsequent changes in the ecological structure of Behshahr city during the last 34 years has caused many environmental problems. So that the horizontal expansion of the city to the four directions and consequently the increase of ecological footprint in this city has led to many changes in use, especially from agriculture and gardens within the city limits to residential and commercial, etc., which causes The destruction of the ecological foundations of the urban environment, the reduction of the capacity to absorb pollution and the intensification of pollution, the lack of green spaces compared to the built-up urban spaces, and finally the reduction of environmental resilience in this city. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the trend of changes in the extent and structural pattern of urban land cover based on Explanation of urban ecology structure during the last 34 years using remote sensing techniques and landscape metrics.
Data and Method
The research method in the present study is analytical-descriptive. The data and information required for the research have been collected and processed through library and field studies. In order to identify and create land use maps and with the aim of examining the structural elements of Behshahr city, the images of TM and OLI sensors of Landsat 5 and 8 satellites related to June in two time periods (1986 and 2020) from the US Geological Survey ( USGS) was used. Also for combining bands, processing and classification of satellite images from ENVI 5.3 software, for measuring landscape metrics from Fragstats4.2.1 software, for preparing maps and data of other software, from Arc Gis10.7 software And Arcview3.2 and Excel software has been used to sort the data and prepare the charts.
Finally, using appropriate landscape metrics at two levels (class and landscape) including metrics, MNN, LSI, MSI, MPS, ED, LPI, NP, PLAND, CA Cohesion, changes in the ecological structure of Behshahr were evaluated.
Results and Discussion
In this study, after processing the Landsat satellite images of the studied years (1986 and 2020), land use was classified into four classes: built-up lands, barren and gardens, and green spaces and agricultural lands.
According to the results obtained from land use changes, in 1986, lands built have the highest percentage of area, ie 470 hectares (38.5%) among land uses, and respectively agricultural lands, green space and barren in the next ranks. In 2020, the built-up land has grown significantly compared to 1986 and has reached 788 hectares (65%), and other uses, agriculture, green space and wasteland are in the next categories.
Also, the analysis of Behshahr Landscape metrics during the last 34 years shows that the metric value of the number of patches (NP) has increased from 599 in 1986 to 863 in 2020. In fact, the decrease in their number indicates fragmentation and The fragmentation of large agricultural spots, green spaces and gardens in the study area is due to the increase in urban construction. This reduces their sustainability and ecological performance. The average patches size (MPS) also shows a decreasing trend and has been reduced from 1.96 in 1986 to 1.43. In general, metric changes in the average patches size indicate an increase in degradation and thus a decrease in ecological resources in the study area.
The results of the research also show the fact that the metric value of the average distance of the nearest neighbor (MNN) of Behshahr landscape has increased in the last 34 years and has increased from 79.01 meters in 1986 to 84.69 meters in 2020. This justifies the reduction of connection and continuity of land use patches, especially agricultural lands, gardens and green space.
Conclusion
In general, one of the obvious results of examining the changes in land use maps of the two periods is as follows: Land use made in this period due to increasing population and demand for land and, consequently, urban growth in recent decades, with the most Area changes have increased and increased by (68%). But other land uses have been declining, so that ecological and green lands, agricultural lands (-52%) and gardens and green spaces (-31%). ) And barren lands have also decreased by about -41%.
The analysis of land landscape metrics also clearly shows the effects of human activities and urbanization on the environment, and the results indicate that the landscape of Behshahr city has become more complex, more geometrically complex and geometrically irregular, and with decreasing continuity, It has become more fragmented. In fact, the results of Cohesion, MNN, LSI, MSI, MPS, ED, LPI, NP, PLAND, CA metric analysis show that the studied land uses, especially agricultural lands, gardens and green space in Behshahr in terms of composition and distribution. The space does not have favorable conditions and during the period under study in terms of extent, continuity and nature of the composition and distribution of ecological patches, especially agricultural patches, has undergone a process of severe destruction. So that, changes in the amount of NP (number of patches) and MPS (average patches size) have been indicators of the formation of a downward trend and ultimately the destruction of the system, indicating that reducing the average size of patches, the destruction process in The system shows and in fact a genuine integrated patch has become a number of small patches and has lost its cohesion.
Also, the results of the study of land use continuity metrics (MNN and Choesion) show that in the mosaic network of urban ecological patches, especially agricultural lands, gardens and green space, while eliminating a large part of these patches and changing its use. On the one hand, the average distance between similar patches has increased over the last 34 years, and on the other hand, they do not have the necessary area.continuity and integration to provide ecological services to improve the environmental quality of Behshahr.
Climatology
mehran fatemi
Abstract
Introduction One of the climatic factors that occur during the cold period of the year in most parts of the country is the phenomenon of cold and glacial. Glacial begins when the temperature decreases and falls to a certain critical threshold, and with the effects it has on the earth's surface, it affects ...
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Introduction One of the climatic factors that occur during the cold period of the year in most parts of the country is the phenomenon of cold and glacial. Glacial begins when the temperature decreases and falls to a certain critical threshold, and with the effects it has on the earth's surface, it affects human life as well as construction activities and the yield of horticultural crops. This complication occurs on fruit trees in winter or early spring and causes a lot of damage. The glacial phenomenon not only endangers the natural life of all living things but also plays an important and decisive role in economic, environmental, and development matters such as roads, dams, and bridges. Glacial is very important in different stages of growth of agricultural and horticultural crops. Because if happen, it leads to production constraints. Glacial means zero temperatures or less than zero. Likewise in terms of technology for agriculture, in the event of thin ice crystals formation on the surfaces with sub-zero temperatures, the temperature of the surface air layer is reached above the dew point. In terms of farming meteorology, glacial is related to the low-temperature alteration which causes damage to the tissues of the plant. Glacials can be classified based on the severity, duration, and timing of occurrence. The classification based on the severity is the power of energy distribution components, which usually are measured based on average temperature, minimum, and average of zero and sub-zero and the lowest temperature of the minimums. The beginning and end dates of the glacial period are important from an agricultural point of view. The first glacial that occurs at the beginning of the glacial age is called early autumn glacial. In the autumn, glacial earlier than normal damage to actively growing branches. The last glacial that occurs at the end of the glacial period is called the late spring glacial. Fruit trees are increasingly susceptible to glacial damage from the time flower buds open, during flowering to the stage of small green fruit. To minimize glacial damage in susceptible areas, full knowledge of the frequency, persistence, and timing of glacial events is essential. To measure the risk of glacial, the recorded data of the minimum air temperature in meteorological stations are used. From a meteorological point of view, glacial occurs when the surface temperature and vegetation on it decrease to less than zero degrees Celsius. Materials and Methods In the current study, the minimum daily temperature statistics of 10 meteorological stations during a period of 17 years (2001-2018) have been used. To analyze the frequency of glacial occurrences for each year, the time of occurrence of the first early autumn glacial and the last late spring glacial was obtained. To convert the data into processable numbers based on the Julian days, each date is assigned a number. Based on this, the September 23 (1st of Mehr) was considered No. 1 and August 23 (31st of Shahrivar) in normal crop years was considered 365, and based on this, the number of the first glacial (early autumn cold) and the last glacial (late spring cold) were identified separately based on the stations during each crop year. Days, when the temperature was less than zero degrees Celsius, were extracted as glacial day and glacial at 5 weak temperature thresholds (temperature between zero to -1.9 degrees Celsius), mild (temperature between -1.9 to -3.9 ° C), moderate (temperature -4 to -5.9 ° C), severe (temperature between -6 to -9.9 ° C) and very severe (temperature -10 ° C and Less) was studied (adapted from Qalehri, 2018: 16). Using SPSS software, the best statistical sequence was obtained to calculate the start and end dates of glacial at different probability levels. The results indicated that most of the selected statistical series have a normal distribution. ArcGIS software was used to zoning the time of onset and end of glacial and to prepare many maps of glacial occurrence. Result and discussion The spatial distribution of the beginning of the glacial in the province follows the topographic state of the region and begins earlier in the southern and southeastern parts of the province. In some parts of the southern and southeastern regions, due to the high altitude of the region and being located in the mountainous areas, early autumn glacial occurs earlier, such as Garizat station, and occurs from November 6 to 12 (Aban 15 to 21). At Bafgh station, the beginning of autumn glacial occurs from November 13 to 19 (Aban 22 to 28). At Marvast, Meybod, and Abarkooh stations, the starting date of glacial is from November 20 to 25 (Aban 29 to Azar 4). The date of occurrence of early autumn glacial in Herat and Robat stations is November 26 to December 2 (5 to 11 Azar). The beginning date of glacial in Mehriz, Yazd, and Aqda stations is from December 3 to 9 (12-18 Azar). The beginning date of glacial based on different probabilities in Garizat stations with a probability of 30%, is November 3 (12 Aban), with a probability of 50% is November 6 (15 Aban), with a probability of 70%, November 9 (18 Aban), and with a probability of 90%, November 14 (Aban 23), as the earliest start date of autumn glacial. At Yazd station, with a probability of 30%, the first glacial has occurred on November 23 (2 Azar), with a probability of 50%, December 4 (Azar 13), with a probability of 70%, December 8 (Azar 17) and with a probability of 90% on December 24[Ma1] (3 Dey). The glacial at Bafgh station will end sooner on January 8 -17 (18-27 Bahman). Glacial in central and southern areas such as Mehriz, Yazd, Aqda, and Herat will end on February 18 to February 26 (Bahman 28 to Esfand 7). At Meybod, Abarkooh, and Robat Posht Badam stations, the end date of the glacial is February 27 to March 9 (Esfand 8-18). At Marvast station, the end of the glacial occurred on March 9-19 (Esfand 18-28). In the highlands, including Garizat station, the glacial starts earlier and ends later, so the glacial season is longer in these areas and the growing season is shorter, March 20-30 (Esfand 29 to Farvardin 10). The end date of glacial at Bafgh station with a probability of 30%, occurs at January 23 (Bahman 3), with a probability of 50%, February 12 (Bahman 23), with a probability of 70%, February 25 (Esfand 6) and with a probability of 90%, March 5 (Esfand 14). At Garizat station, the last glacial occurs with a probability of 30% on March 26, (Farvardin 6), with a probability of 50%, on March 29 (Farvardin 9), with a probability of 70% on March 31 (Farvardin 11), and with a probability of 90% on April 8 (Farvardin 19). The spatial distribution of the number of glacial days on the threshold zero shows that southeast areas including Garizat station have the most frosty days (1685 days) and Bafgh (483 days), Mehriz (484 days), Robate Posht Badam (518 days), Yazd (463 days) and Aqda (362 days) have the lowest number of glacial days during the statistical period (2001-2018). Spatial distribution of glacial occurrence at temperature thresholds of (0 and -1.9) have the highest number of glacials and the central and northern regions have the lowest number of glacials. Therefore, the Garizat station (467 days) has the highest amount of glacial, and Bafgh and Aqda stations have the lowest amount of glacial at this threshold. Likewise, on the threshold (-2 to -3.9), the southeastern and northwestern regions have the highest number of glacial and the northern and central regions have the lowest number of glacial. So, Garizat, Abarkooh, and Meybod stations have the highest amount of glacial and Mehriz, Yazd, Bafgh, Robat-e Posht Badam and Aqda stations have the lowest amount of glacial at this threshold. Conclusion Studies conducted between the start and end dates of glacial and the height of selected stations showed that there is a significant relationship between altitude and the date of occurrence of early autumn glacials. As altitude increases, glacial begins sooner. This fact designates that early autumn glacials happen earlier in the mountains than in the plains. The glacial onset map shows that in the plains of the province, the time of the first glacial is about a month later than the highlands of the province. In late spring glacials, the relationship between altitude and the end of the glacial is direct and by increasing the altitude, the date of the last spring glacial is delayed. This indicates that in the plains, the glacial period begins later and ends earlier, in other words, the glacial season in these areas is shorter and the growing season is longer. Conversely, in the highlands, the length of the glacial increases, and the length of growth decreases. This is significant from an agricultural point of view. Besides, the frequency of glacial in the southern and southeastern regions is higher than in the northern and northeastern regions, which has a significant relationship with altitude. The results of the analyzes showed that the Garizat station has the most glacial at all thresholds in the studied period. The lowest amount of glacial days is related to Bafgh, Aqda, and Mehriz stations in the temperature threshold (less than -10). The spatial distribution of the occurrence of glacial at different temperature thresholds also showed that in general, the southern and southeastern regions of the province have the highest frequency of this phenomenon, and as we move to the north of the province, the frequency of glacial decreases.
All other Geographic fields of studies , Interdisciplinary
Samira Fallah Zolleh; Alireza Ildoromi; Hamid Nouri
Abstract
Introduction
In recent years, the impact of climate change and drought forecasting on water resources planning and management has received much attention. In the present study, probable climate change on Malayer basin temperature and precipitation over the period 2014-2014 was investigated and monthly, ...
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Introduction
In recent years, the impact of climate change and drought forecasting on water resources planning and management has received much attention. In the present study, probable climate change on Malayer basin temperature and precipitation over the period 2014-2014 was investigated and monthly, seasonal and annual forecasts for the near future (2030-2011) under three scenarios A2, B1 and A1B using HadCM3 general circulation model The LARS-WG model was used for performing and exponential micro-scale.
Data and Method
ARIMA multiplication time series and AIC and SBC criteria and Pert-Manto test in predicting precipitation and SPI and SDI indices have been used to predict drought for the period (1397-1418) of Merville, Pihan and Wasjeh hydrometric stations.The results show an increase in precipitation and temperature in all three monthly, seasonal and annual scales in the coming period, and Shows that the largest meteorological drought for the base period in 1998-1999 is -1/96 and In the coming year 1418-1418 there was adecrease of -2/4. Surveys show that moderate and severe droughts will increase in the coming statistical period at the Mervil, Peyhan and Vasge stations.
Results and Discussion
Drought occurrence reduces discharge and hydrological drought. The results show that due to variability of precipitation and mean air temperature, the trend of drought changes is not the same in different months. Therefore, the duration, severity and frequency of droughts vary from month to year.
Conclusion
Investigation of correlation (r) and mean error (MSE) values between observed and calculated values of discharge and precipitation at the stations under study indicate the high capability of ARIMA model in simulating monthly discharge. And it can be used in other parts of the country.
All other Geographic fields of studies , Interdisciplinary
Mohammadreza Shahbazbegian; Sayeh Habibzadeh
Abstract
IntroductionThe Maku Free Zone has a potential strategic position in the country according to its location on the Iran turkey border crossing and Azerbaijan, and its sustainable development has great importance from various economic, social, and political aspects. However, regional development policies ...
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IntroductionThe Maku Free Zone has a potential strategic position in the country according to its location on the Iran turkey border crossing and Azerbaijan, and its sustainable development has great importance from various economic, social, and political aspects. However, regional development policies are still focused on growth regardless of resource shortage, especially water resources. It needs further study toward the sustainable development paradigm and focus on limited resources, especially water resources in this region. In a region, sustainable development can be achieved by considering the economic, social, and environmental potential of that region. Individual development is not possible in any of the sectors without taking into account the overall behavior and effects of the subsystems on each other. Data and methodsThe present study is applied research, descriptive and analytical research in terms of purpose, nature, and data collection method. The system dynamics method has been used in the software and wireless environment according to the Library studies and field studies concerning the research topic. The study of the aim was to analyze the development of Maku Free region concerning three economic, social, and environmental subsystems with an emphasis on water resources. In this regard, it uses a systemic approach to analyze the interactions between variables. First, the necessary information and statistical data have been derived from observations and regional specialist interviews. Then, the system of three economic and social sectors and water resources was accepted in the form of cause-and-effect chains (equilibrium and reinforcement) separately using software and their performance with reference diagrams through dynamic knowledge. These subsystems were comprehensively drawn and interconnected in the form of a systemic mechanism governing the development indicators of Maku County. Finally, three policies were formulated from the system mechanism according to the existing potentials in the region and based on limited groundwater resources. With a systematic study, the subsystems related to the three mentioned sections. Discussion and results One of the most important limitations of Maku region in terms of sustainable development is the high stress on groundwater resources due to overexploitation of available water resources. Therefore, the present article emphasizes equilibrium rings to control the negative effects of reinforcement rings leading to increased exploitation of groundwater resources by focusing on excessive use of groundwater resources. For this purpose, equilibrium rings were drawn in such a way as to prevent the overexploitation of groundwater resources and modify effective reinforcement rings by reducing dependency on agricultural activities. Since the agricultural sector is the most important part of water consumption in that region, it will be possible to draw these circles only based on alternative livelihood policy and change livelihood from agriculture to more value-added activities with less dependency on water; Therefore, livelihood change should be done in the framework for developing and replacing High water consumption agricultural activities with non-agricultural activities based on region situation and circumstance. Conclusion The study of systemic mechanisms governing development showed that three policies based on strengthening aquaculture, investment to develop tourism, and cultivation of medicinal plants by strengthening equilibrium systemic mechanisms, can strengthen the sustainability of the Maku Free Zone. The first policy is based on strengthening the Aquaculture activity, which is currently operating with an area of 40,000 hectares and a production of 80 tons per year. The cultivation area of this region can be increased up to 70,000 hectares due to its high potential for aquaculture despite surface water in the north of the Aras River Valley and the existence of dams such as Danalo and Qighaj. In addition, there are many wetlands in the Maku Free Zone that can be used in aquaculture activities in the future by researching them and making a safe investment in this field. The second policy based on strengthening tourism activity will also lead to the control of the destructive reinforcement loop by increasing the added value of the region and reducing stress on groundwater resources. Cultivation of medicinal plants due to low water consumption and income per acreage compared to orchards is the third proposed systemic policy that can improve the systemic mechanism behavior governing Maku water resources towards optimal water management.
All other Geographic fields of studies , Interdisciplinary
Mostafa Karimi; Sousan Heidari; Morteza sharif
Abstract
IntroductionIncrease temperatures and decrease rainfall can lead to the drying up of wetlands, lakes and rivers, the formation of aerosol centers, which directly and indirectly change the structure of society and the ecological conditions of lakes around the world; As a result, it leads to changes in ...
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IntroductionIncrease temperatures and decrease rainfall can lead to the drying up of wetlands, lakes and rivers, the formation of aerosol centers, which directly and indirectly change the structure of society and the ecological conditions of lakes around the world; As a result, it leads to changes in the distribution of animal and plant species, ecological diversity, changes in the plant phonological cycle, factors, growth and organisms, and ecological metabolism. These changes also severely affect vegetation in arid and semi-arid climates. Finally, changes in surface conditions caused by human activities may also affect various hydrological processes. Thus, the twenty-first century is facing many environmental problems, one of the most important of which is the variability of environmental and climatic parameters. Lake Urmia is one of the most important water areas in Iran and one of the largest salt lakes on earth. The lake plays an important role in the climatic, environmental and economic situation and a national and international natural heritage in the northwest of Iran.variability of environmental and climatic parameters is one of the most important challenges for human specific in arid and semiarid environment such as Iran. The purpose of this study is to investigate the changes in environmental and climatic parameters in the catchment of Lake Urmia in the last two decades. The purpose of the above was to answer the question of how the changes in environmental and climatic parameters in the basin and the relationship between these changes in the current conditions of the basin Lake Urmia.Data and methodsResearch data includes six categories: 1) TOPEX and Jason 1 to 3 satellites data to study of changes in altitude level of Lake Urmia, 2) Landsat 7 satellite images of 2000 and Landsat 8 of 2019 for extract lake water area changes and 3) Precipitation data from GPM[1] satellite product (IMERG[2]) 4) Vegetation index products of Modis sensor (Mod13A3 v006) to identify vegetation changes, 5) LST Night and daytime of Modis sensor (MOD11A2 v006) and finally 6) gridded reanalysis data (ERA5) to detect of trend air temperature, were used.First, the changes in the water level of the lake were extracted using the data of TOPEX and Jason 1 to 3 satellites, and in the next step, the trend of changes in its was calculated. Landsat 7 images of 2000 and Landsat 8 of 2019 using the Normalized Differential Water Index (MNDWI) were used to achieve changes in the lake's water area. Then LST (day and night) of MOD11A2 v006 products were converted into monthly data using MATLAB software. Finally, the trend changes in precipitation data, 2 m air temperature, LST (day and night) and vegetation (NDVI) were investigated using Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975).ResultsThe highest changes in water level in the last two decades are from 2000 to 2010. The decrease in level is evident from the year 2000, from that year to 2010, the water level of the lake decreased by 4 meters and the highest slope of the decrease in it observed in the same period. The change in the area obtained from the MNDWI index is 2740 km2, which has caused the lake to decrease from 5143km2 to 2400km2 in 2019. The decrease of the lake level in its southern and eastern part has been more than the western and northern part. The trend of monthly precipitation changes shows two different temporal and spatial patterns. It is important to note that there is a monthly decreasing trend every three months in January, August and December in the central and southern parts of the basin. In contrast, in May and July, a marked increasing trend is observed in the eastern and southern half of the basin. Spatial displacement of incremental changes in air temperature indicates a clockwise movement from north to east and then south and west from May to August. The trend of day of the LST changes indicates a spatial contrast between the Lake and around it. This behavioral contradiction is more pronounced with the increase of the lake surface temperature and the decreasing trend in the southern and western regions corresponding to the agricultural areas in August, September and October. Changes in LST at the basin level from November to February, in which scattered and small incremental zones are observed, can also be due to reduced vegetation in the cold period of the year. In contrast to the daytime LST, at night what is most noticeable is large zones of temperature rise, especially from June to September throughout the basin. NDVI in the period 2019-2000 has had an increasing trend in all months, but with varying intensity and extent. Three temporal patterns are understandable in the process of basin vegetation change. Increased from January to May, then start decreasing trend from June to August and again increasing trend that continued until December. The lowest increasing trend is observed during the summer months from June to August.DiscussionLake Urmia has experienced a continuous decrease in water level since 2000, so that during the last twenty years, the water level has decreased by more than seven meters. The results of the present study also showed that there was a significant increasing trend in the NDVI index at the basin, especially with the southern of the basin. However, at the basin level, the trend of rainfall changes in this period (2000-2000) is not generally significant and also due to the occurrence of numerous droughts in the basin, which has also had an increasing trend and the expansion of irrigated lands, Demand for groundwater has increased. Therefore, this issue indicates various reasons other than changes in climatic parameters, especially precipitation in reducing the water level of Lake Urmia. In addition to the above, daytime and nighttime LST have increased during the warm period of the year as well as the air temperature on the lake. This increase increment evaporation, especially during periods when recharge is reduced due to seasonal dry. Although precipitation has increased at the end of spring, but with increasing temperature, precipitation increases with increasing evapotranspiration and water requirement of plants is neutralized. Therefore, the simultaneous change of environmental and atmospheric parameters can be considered as aggravating the conditions of hazardous events in this basin.ConclusionBased on the evaluation done in this study, it can be concluded that the basin of Lake Urmia is vulnerable. Therefore, the three main and significant effects of environmental variability in these areas are increasing ground temperature, vegetation and reducing water resources. The result of these conditions on the one hand and the increase of water needs of plants on the other hand will increase the stress on water resources, especially groundwater. Decreasing the lake surface and increasing consumption and reducing water resources can lead to the spread of bare surfaces and the occurrence of dust.
Climatology
abdolreza hosseini; sayed mohammad hosseini; Rahman Zandi; hasan hajimohammadi
Abstract
IntroductionSnow, as one of the important climatic-hydrological parameters, has a significant role in providing the world's water resources for industrial, agricultural and drinking purposes. At the same time, the dangerous consequences of heavy snowfall, avalanches, destruction of rural housing, disruption ...
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IntroductionSnow, as one of the important climatic-hydrological parameters, has a significant role in providing the world's water resources for industrial, agricultural and drinking purposes. At the same time, the dangerous consequences of heavy snowfall, avalanches, destruction of rural housing, disruption of road transport and communication and numerous other consequences that it has on the natural and human environment are significant for environmental scientists (Shakiba et al, 2015: 88). However, heavy snowfall, especially in the lowlands and lowlands of the middle latitudes, is unexpected and somewhat surprising. So that its continuation for a few days in these areas will have negative effects on practically all living standards of the residents of these areas (Hosseini, 2014: 101). In recent years, the use of satellite data in natural, hydrological and water resource management has grown significantly, and in this regard, MODIS sensor images due to acceptable spatial resolution and fast temporal retrieval power with a variety of bands. Spectral has put it in a good position. Also, due to the very high albedo of snow, it is possible to measure the level of snow cover using satellite data. MethodologyIn the present study, the environmental approach to circulation was used to investigate the relationship between circulation patterns and heavy snowfall. Thus; first, the days of heavy snowfall in the studied stations were identified and then the synoptic patterns and atmosphere of the representative days were analyzed. In this regard, after receiving snow altitude data from the Meteorological Organization, heavy and widespread rainfall events were identified in three western provinces of the country, including Hamadan, Kurdistan and Kermanshah in the form of 16 synoptic stations, during the years 2000 to 2019. In order to study and analyze the synoptic patterns of days with heavy snowfall, by referring to the website of the National Center for Environmental Forecasting / Atmospheric Sciences (NCEP / NCAR), daily data on Sea Level Pressure (SLP), High Geopotential (HGT), zonal wind (UWND) and meridianal wind (VWND), air temperature (Air) and instability index (Omega) were extracted at the intersection of 2.5 * 2.5 and the relevant maps were drawn using GRADS software. Also, the area covered by snow was obtained from MODIS satellite images. MODIS data are of level1b type, which was calculated based on the parameters in the header, radiance and reflectivity. Reflective and thermal parameters for bands 4 and 6 were also used to apply the NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index). Results and DiscussionAfter 20 years of study, 8 days were identified that heavy and heavy snow had fallen in the area. On February 4, 2011, in the middle of the atmosphere, a deep trough formed in the western Mediterranean and North Africa, with a strong positive vorticity. This situation has affected the study area.The location of this trough in the Mediterranean provides the moisture needed for snowfall from the Mediterranean Sea. ConclusionsThe results showed in the ground formed a powerful cyclone on Iraq and turbulent weather caused chaos for the region. This condition causes the air to cause accelerated the rise of the package and water vapor in the atmosphere with his quick ascent to the seed quickly convert hexagonal snow. Creates a pressure gradient that causes more than 12 HPa in the region was to create a strong front will be formed in the region. In the high latitudes of cold air and warm air in front of it is the lower latitude. Has caused more than 60 to 70 percent of the study area are covered by snow. A deep trough of cold air loss in middle levels at depths greater than 25 degrees latitude has been. With extreme vorticity and air along rapid ascent has been closed. NDSI index showed the results of actions by deploying the most weather systems has gone down snow-covered forests of western Iran.
Urban Planning
mohamadreza elyasi; seyed farzin faezi; Mortaze Pazireh
Abstract
Introduction We are today facing a growing number of vehicles, which poses an interference in the performance of urban intersections, particularly Squares. Urban road network does not make a lot of problems for traffic, but its major cause is the intersections resulting in congestion in the network due ...
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Introduction We are today facing a growing number of vehicles, which poses an interference in the performance of urban intersections, particularly Squares. Urban road network does not make a lot of problems for traffic, but its major cause is the intersections resulting in congestion in the network due to the interference in the continuous flow and its conversion into incontinuous flow. This study attempted to provide the closest simulation to reality for 13 Aban Square in Hamadan by determining drivers' behavior and applying local parameters in EMSAN software. Methodology In this study, in order to evaluate the drivers' behavior at intersections, traffic parameters were performed using field studies and the review of microscopic parameters was simulated in a realistic way. Data were collected in the field is by video recording for one hour without interruption during a peak hour of noon. One of the advantages of this method over traffic counting is the calculation of vehicle origin-destination statistics, which provides a better simulation close to the current situation. First, the required geometric data must be collected from the desired location, including the width of route entries and exits, the radius of circumscribed circle, the radius of central Square and other construction protrusions, and applied carefully close to reality in the software. The statistics of route entries were recorded by video recording without interruption at the peak hour from 12:30 to 13:30 from the high point on the northwest side of the approach on Tuesday, November 21, 2018. After determining the drivers' behavior and localization practices, the data were entered into the software and the results were compared in two scenarios. A new cycle plan was also designed and provided for this intersection with SIDRA software, which was applied simultaneously with localization. First, the effect of traffic light application was determined on the microscopic characteristics of Square traffic flow such as delay, vehicle speed, level of service, number of vehicles waiting in line, and travel time using software. The results showed the lowest value following the application of drivers' behavior and simulation for delay in the first scenario and speed in the current situation and the second scenario. Travel time also showed an increase by 54% for the current situation, by 6% for the no-light mode, and by 50% for the 80-second cycle mode. Results and Discussions Validation performed by fitting approximately 80% with the current situation calculated from the software, such as the same practice regarding the latency after determining the localized parameters, revealed the accuracy of the calculations and the correctness of the path travelled in the localization process. Travel time is one of the criteria used to assess the characteristics of traffic flow in urban road network and intersections. Vehicle travel time indicates characteristics such as delay, line length, flow rate and network level of service. It is not unreasonable to expect a change in travel time charts with increasing delay and decreasing speed, so that we observe a 54% increase for the current situation, a 6% decrease for the non-lighted mode, and a 50% increase for the 80-second cycle duration. Effectiveness and accuracy of localization process can be confirmed by analyzing the effect of localization of different software parameters on the outputs, investigating the fitness of the modeling results with reality, and by comparing the difference between the software output results in the two cases before and after localization. Delay and mean travel time parameters were selected as the most significant and common parameters in lighted intersections in line with the validation of the simulations. There was only a 5.5% difference between the current situation of 13 Aban Square and the field validation, confirming the coherence of localization in the software. Conclusion As can be seen in Tables of this study, it should be noted that the delay parameter has a direct effect on other parameters of an intersection. In this regard, validation was performed for the travel time parameter in line with the delay parameter and the test vehicle method was used. However, the tables were not presented in order to avoid prolonging the article. The results revealed that the validation performed by fitting about 80% with the current situation calculated from the software, such as the same findings regarding the delay, shows the accuracy of the calculations and the correctness of the path travelled in the localization process.
Geotourism
Ali Modabber Khaknezhad; Karim Hosseinzadeh Dalir; Bakhtyar ezatpanah
Abstract
Introduction
Nowadays, tourism is one of the most dynamic industries in the world, which has a great impact on the economic growth and dynamism of countries and has become one of the most complex human businesses in many countries. This industry is considered as a multifaceted activity of a ...
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Introduction
Nowadays, tourism is one of the most dynamic industries in the world, which has a great impact on the economic growth and dynamism of countries and has become one of the most complex human businesses in many countries. This industry is considered as a multifaceted activity of a mechanism to increase employment, earn income and attract foreign exchange; according to the latest statistics, one out of every 10 important jobs in the world has been related to the tourism industry. Therefore, different countries are looking for solutions to develop tourism; in particular, countries with weak economies in transition are more focused on developing the industry as a way to grow and develop as well as currency. On the other hand, given that the amount of value added and income from the development of tourism, has a major role in GDP and citizens to have a sustainable livelihood; therefore, nowadays, attention to the formation of tourism in its various forms has been considered by different countries. Considering the importance of tourism development in the present era and the place of historical-cultural contexts in achieving this, the purpose of this study is to identify the management drivers affecting the development of historical and cultural tourism in Tabriz metropolis. The historical context of Tabriz, despite its potential, currently does not have the desired environmental and spatial quality. Therefore, paying attention to this context in order to recreate it and also the development of tourism is one of the priorities of city officials.
Data and Method
The research method in the present study is applied in terms of purpose, survey in terms of implementation method and cross-sectional in terms of time. For this purpose, first the required indicators have been extracted in the form of documents and referring to tourism-related researches, and in order to measure the effective management impulses on tourism development, managers, officials and experts of Tabriz Historical-Cultural Region (Region 8) have been questioned. Therefore, the statistical population of the study is the managers, officials and experts of the municipality of Tabriz historical-cultural region (about 300 people) and the sample size is estimated based on the Delphi method of 100 people, which the method of accessing the sample size is based on a targeted model. Also in order to analyze the data, has been used of structural equation modeling method in Amos software.
Results and Discussion
Findings indicate that the most important management drivers affecting the development of tourism in the historical-cultural context are extra-organizational capacities, intra-organizational capacities and project criteria and definitions, for which the coefficient of the structural model has been 0.71, 0.63 and 0.56, respectively. Also, among the sub-variables, the most influential are related to the variables of forming institutional interaction with other public and private organizations in order to develop historical-cultural tourism, the ability to strengthen local mechanisms to develop historical-cultural tourism and targeted understanding of historical context and flexibility in historical texture programs for tourism development with coefficients of 0.77, 0.72 and 0.65, respectively.
Conclusion
Over the past few decades, tourism has undergone a variety of continuous changes and has become one of the largest economic sectors. One of the most important factors in the development of sustainable tourism in any region is how to manage related activities. Thus, the discussion of management is an important part of planning and as the basis of work, which is the act of directing and controlling a task or organization. Management also includes a systematic approach in which the dynamics of tourism in the context of supply and demand is considered with emphasis on economic sustainability and utility and the social consequences of tourism. On the other hand, due to the extensive changes in today's cities and the lack of coherent planning, especially in the historical-cultural contexts, it has been marginalized by these valuable contexts that play a pivotal role in tourism development. Considering the importance of tourism discussion and the important role of historical-cultural contexts in this field, the purpose of this study is to identify impacts of the management drivers on development of historical-cultural tourism in Tabriz metropolis. The results indicate that in the first place, the most effective drivers of external capacities (external capacity building), in the second place, institutional capacity drivers (internal institutional capacities), and finally, the third most effective drivers are criteria and definition of projects through factors such as emphasis on public development. And pedestrian-centered, purposeful knowledge of historical context issues with a future research approach, careful monitoring of compliance with bylaws and sections and emphasis on multidimensional goals (social, economic, physical) will promote the historical context and consequently the development of tourism.
Urban Planning
Leila Sohelivand; Farzin Haghparast; ALIREZA soltani; mahsa faramarzi
Abstract
Introduction
Due to the need to provide housing in different countries, governments have taken comprehensive measures and planning to provide housing for different groups, especially the low-income classes. But the reality is that the methods of planning and intervention in housing production, land ...
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Introduction
Due to the need to provide housing in different countries, governments have taken comprehensive measures and planning to provide housing for different groups, especially the low-income classes. But the reality is that the methods of planning and intervention in housing production, land supply, and established urban standards have been inefficient and have not benefited the lowest-income groups. On the other hand, policies that emphasize the construction of housing for the low-income classes have paid little attention to its environmental effects. It is also important to note that the challenge of providing housing for low-income urban groups in developing countries is not limited to housing alone. Lack of living space and interior spaces of the house and inefficiency of heating and cooling facilities, insecurity against natural hazards, are among the most important issues that are not considered and studied when providing housing policies for these groups. To take. On the other hand, according to experts, housing programs for low-income groups have been the only housing for swollen housing wounds among these income groups; A large number of households in the conditions of homelessness, housing shortage and poor housing, show a lack of macro vision of this sector and the ineffectiveness of policies implemented in the housing sector and solving its problem in the country. For a variety of reasons, these policies have always faced serious challenges from the public and critics, as managers and planners in the field are now convinced that many policies and Investments in the housing sector may improve temporarily in this sector, but it will not be a way to achieve safe and sustainable conditions. What is needed is a rethinking of macro-management approaches and the use of new tools in planning, tools that make sense of the third wave of management (change to adapt to the future environment). In this regard, this study intends to identify and investigate the most important factors affecting the provision of adequate housing for low-income urban groups in the city of Tabriz.
Data and Method
The present study, with a futures research approach, identifies the most important factors affecting the housing of low-income groups in the city of Tabriz and examines the extent and how these factors affect. This research is applied in terms of purpose and according to the components under study, the approach is the descriptive-analytical method. Environmental and Delphi scanning techniques have been used to identify variables and indicators. In this regard, in the first stage, to collect variables from online articles, a review of published articles on the factors affecting the provision of housing for low-income groups was used; Then, a semi-structured questionnaire was distributed between experts in the field of urban issues and they were asked to score points in the matrix of intersecting effects on variables, based on effectiveness and influence with numbers in the range 0 to 3. In this rating, "zero" means no effect, "one" means weak effect, "two" means medium effect and "three" means high effect. The scores were then entered in a cross-matrix to measure the direct and indirect impact of each factor and to obtain key drivers according to the scores of the factors. In scenario-based studies, the expertise and knowledge of experts take precedence over the overall quantity and the sample size should not be less than 25 people. In this study, in order to consciously select the participants, purposive sampling method has been used. The basis for using purposive sampling method is to select a group of experts who have an in-depth study or general understanding of the nature of the research questionnaire. Based on the above explanations, the statistical population of this study is 50 experts in the field of urban issues, including experts of Tabriz metropolitan municipality, consulting engineers and some university professors specializing in the field of study.
Results and Discussion
Based on the rank obtained from key factors, 16 factors were identified as drivers in low-income housing planning in Tabriz. These drivers are in order of importance: per capita construction credits (government development credits in the housing sector), security against earthquakes and natural disasters, housing prices, the quality of urban space, the level of security against urban crime, how to access Educational centers, access to cultural and recreational centers, access to health centers, urban green space, quality of design and construction, access to public transportation, cost of urban infrastructure, access to water, electricity, gas, telephone, sewage, residential density and Construction cost.
Conclusion
Given the obtained key drivers, it can be acknowledged that success in achieving comprehensive goals in this field depends on continuous interaction between key factors and careful planning for these drivers. In other words, sufficient attention by planners and city managers to the influential factors and drivers and considering these key factors and the relationships between them will provide the necessary conditions for providing housing for low-income groups in the city of Tabriz.
Geomorphology
Mousa Abedini; Elhameh Ebady; Ehsan Ghale
Abstract
Introduction Landslides are one of the major geological problems around the world that cause compaction of subsurface layers. The cause of this phenomenon can be attributed to human activities such as uncontrolled abstraction of groundwater and natural activities such as earthquakes. Landslides ...
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Introduction Landslides are one of the major geological problems around the world that cause compaction of subsurface layers. The cause of this phenomenon can be attributed to human activities such as uncontrolled abstraction of groundwater and natural activities such as earthquakes. Landslides are also one of the main geological hazards in the region, causing serious damage to buildings, roads, infrastructure and bridges. According to the US Geological Survey, subsidence involves the collapse or subsidence of the earth's surface, which can have a small displacement vector. Therefore, identifying and monitoring the subsidence phenomenon is one of the most important and vital issues to maintain stability in the regions. For this purpose, researchers use various methods to study and observe this phenomenon, which are divided into three categories based on the position of the tools used: Subsurface methods, Ground Based methods and Remote Sensing methods. One of the most important of these methods is remote sensing, which collects data from the air or space using satellites, airplanes, or unmanned vehicles and balloons. Radar interference or InSAR, as one of the methods of processing radar images in active remote sensing, is one of the most accurate and economical methods that allows the detection and detection of differences in altitudes created in the shortest time and for large areas. Data and Method The study area is located in western Iran and one of the parts of Kermanshah city located in Kermanshah province is located in the area between latitudes 42 degrees and 9 minutes north and longitude 36 degrees and 2 minutes east. Radar interferometry studies in this study were taken by sentinel 1 satellite imagery of the C band. In this study, data from Sentinel 1 satellite in C-band were used. Using image processing with SARSCAPE 5.2 plugin in ENVI 5.3 software platform and using interferometry method, areas exposed to subsidence and the amount of subsidence in each area were determined. In the present study, the relationship between groundwater level drop and subsidence of Mahidasht plain has been investigated. For this purpose, groundwater depth data of 31 piezometer wells in Mahidasht plain were used. In terms of time, considering the accurate and available statistics, the statistics of 1394 and 1398 were cited. The steps of the research were as follows: after preparing the statistics of piezometric wells, the data reconstruction method was used to eliminate the deficiencies in the study data. The reconstruction method used, which was used only to correct the defects in the data, is the interpolation method, which was performed by Neural Power software (based on artificial neural network). To normalize the data, logarithmic transformations were used in SPSS 16 software and GS+ software was used for geostatistical analysis. Results and Discussion Examination of subsidence status during the study years shows that from 2015 to 2020, the rate of subsidence has increased. In Figure 1, the areas marked in red have the highest subsidence, the areas marked in green and yellow have the least subsidence, and the areas marked in black have no subsidence. According to the subsidence map of the region, the maximum average subsidence rate in the study area reaches 16 cm. According to the extracted subsidence map of the study area, it is observed that the highest amount of subsidence occurred in the eastern part of Mahidasht plain, which decreased to the west of the plain, so that in the western and south western part of the plain, the lowest Subsidence is observed. Relationship between groundwater extraction and land subsidence phenomenon Considering that groundwater abstraction is one of the important causes of subsidence in Mahidasht plain, in order to explain the trend of groundwater level changes, the general trend of annual water level of all wells were examined. According to the groundwater level interpolation map, the groundwater depth in Mahidasht plain varies from a maximum of 21.62 meters in 1994 to a maximum of 24.71 meters in 1998. ConclusionLand subsidence is a pervasive phenomenon in the world, which has had a significant quantitative and qualitative manifestation in recent decades, mainly due to the improper exploitation of groundwater resources and the intensification of its decline. In the present study, the relationship between groundwater level drop and subsidence of Mahidasht plain has been investigated. Examination of statistics related to the depth of study wells as well as groundwater level zoning maps confirm the decrease of groundwater level. In fact, over-harvesting and lack of balance between feeding the aquifers and draining them has caused the water table in the region to follow a continuous downward trend, with the emptying of water in the cavities of the aquifer and the displacement of water in these cavities with Air reduces the equilibrium pressure between the layers. Due to the disturbance of the balance between the pressure and the weight of the upper layers, due to the force of the weight of the upper layers, the aqueous layers are compressed and the water table decreases and because this decrease has a direct relationship with subsidence. Therefore, in order to deal with this environmental problem, it is recommended to prevent the development of subsidence in the region or to minimize the occurrence of this phenomenon as much as possible by managing land use in the area of subsidence and also adequate supervision over the extraction of underground resources.
Rural Planning
Zahra Arabi; Rezvan Ghorbani salkhord; yosef darvishi
Abstract
IntroductionDrought is one of the environmental disasters that are very common in arid and semi-arid country regions. Rainfall defects have different effects on groundwater, soil moisture, and river flow. Meteorological drought indices are calculated directly from meteorological data such as rainfall ...
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IntroductionDrought is one of the environmental disasters that are very common in arid and semi-arid country regions. Rainfall defects have different effects on groundwater, soil moisture, and river flow. Meteorological drought indices are calculated directly from meteorological data such as rainfall and will not be useful in monitoring drought in the absence of data. Therefore, remote sensing techniques can be a useful tool in measuring drought. Drought is a known environmental disaster and has social, economic, and environmental impacts. Lack of rainfall in an area for long periods is known as drought. Drought and rainfall affect the water and agricultural resources of each region. Materials & MethodsDue to the nature of the problem and the subject under study, the present study is descriptive-analytical with emphasis on quantitative methods. In this study, satellite images of Tera Sensor Modis in 2000 and 2017 were used to verify the existence of wet and drought phenomena. In the next step, by examining the rain gauge and synoptic data of the existing stations and using the standardized precipitation index model of three months (May, June, and April), the sample was selected. Next, we compared temperature status indices (TCI) and vegetation health indices (VHI) in these three months to determine the difference between these indices over the three months. Modira Terra satellite was used to study the vegetation status in the study area. Subsequently, vegetation-free areas were isolated from vegetation areas using the conditions set for the NDVI layer, the experimental method was used to determine the threshold value of this index. For this purpose, different thresholds were tested, with the optimum value of 1 being positive. NDVI is less than 1 free of positive plants and more than free of vegetation. MODIS spectral sensor images for surface temperature variables with a spatial resolution of 1 km, including 31 bands (1080/1180 bandwidth, central bandwidth / 11.017 spatial resolution of 1000 m) and 32 bands - 770/11Central Wavelength Band 032/12 Spatial Resolution Power (1000 m) Selected for months that are almost cloudless. All images are downloaded from the SearchEarthData site and edited. Total rainfall in June, April, and May for 20 years has been provided by the Meteorological Organization of Iran. ARC GIS software and geostatistical methods were used to process Excel data. Pearson correlation coefficient was also used to estimate the correlation between the data. Results & DiscussionA standard precipitation index is a powerful tool in analyzing rainfall data. This study aimed to compare the relationship between remote sensing indices and meteorological drought indices and to determine the effectiveness of remote sensing indices in drought monitoring. The correlation between the variables with the SPI index was evaluated and calculated. The results of the indicators are different, so a criterion should be used to evaluate the performance of these indicators. SPI index on a quarterly time scale (correlation with vegetation) was selected as the preferred criterion. According to the results of correlations, the TCI index with the SPI index had a strong correlation with other indices. In the short run, this index has the highest correlation with thermal indices at the level of 1%. The correlation between meteorological drought index and plant water content and thermal indices increases with increasing time intervals. The positive correlation between vegetation indices and plant water content with meteorological drought indices shows that the trend of changes is in line. Therefore, the TCI index makes the drought more accurate and is a better method to estimate drought.ConclusionThe results showed that among the surveyed fish, the most drought trend was observed in the eastern provinces and covers more than 50% of the region. The trend of changes in this slope was statistically significant. According to the results of correlations, the TCI index had a strong correlation with the SPI index with other indices. It can also be concluded that Modis images and processed indices along with climatic indices have the potential to monitor drought. The use of maps derived from drought indices can help improve drought management programs and play a significant role in reducing the effects of drought.
Urban Planning
Hassan Mahmoudzadeh; Fateme Zeini Goldar; Zeinat Mohammadpour Sangani
Abstract
IntroductionCity is considered as a dynamic phenomenon that is transforming and changing over time. The set of human elements and artificial factors are effective in creating this dynamism and transformation (Roshani et al., 2016: 32). In fact, urban landscapes are a combination of natural and human ...
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IntroductionCity is considered as a dynamic phenomenon that is transforming and changing over time. The set of human elements and artificial factors are effective in creating this dynamism and transformation (Roshani et al., 2016: 32). In fact, urban landscapes are a combination of natural and human components. The expansion of cities has occurred with unprecedented growth throughout the world in the last few decades. The main concern of this rapid development is its profound impacts on urban ecosystems and biodiversity due to fragmentation.This issue has increased interest among ecological researchers to examine the structure of urban landscapes and environmental outcomes and, consequently, the physical development of cities (Fan et al., 2017). Understanding the landscape pattern, changes and interactions between human activities and natural phenomena is essential for land management and decision- making (Kammer et al., 2015). It should be noted that traditional methods such as mapping to examine changes in land uses are time-consuming and costly and require special skills (Nazarnejad et al., 2018: 24). In this regard, the emergence of remote sensing techniques and GIS has enabled researchers, planners and city managers to have a comprehensive view of land and land use change over time at a lower cost (Aryana et al., 2010).Data and MethodNowadays, the concept of cities is unperceivable without considering growth in various forms. In fact, urban life and its physical and natural impacts are considered as one of the important topics in planning and macro management. In the present study, Landsat satellite images with a resolution of 30 meters, TM and OLI sensors were used for the years 1984, 2000, 2018 and 2019. After pre-processing and processing, the images were classified in eCognition software using the nearest neighbor algorithm. Object-oriented classification is the newest method of classification based on segmentation.The images were classified into 6 categories (construction, gardens and green space, water, vegetation, barren and rangeland) to extract the land cover map and detect the changes in the images resulting from classification, and the generated maps entered Fragstats software to measure land use metrics. This software obtains metrics at three levels: spot, land class, and landscape (Marx, 1995: 23). One of the advantages of assessment by using landscape metrics is to help gain knowledge on the level of development or fragmentation of the study area in the shortest time possible with digital data that is comparable to replicate the study in future. Given the aim of this study, a class of metrics was analyzed.The NP metric has been increasing for all three cities, reflecting the fact that land uses have fragmented and lost their integrity over time in recent decades due to the growth of urbanization and the increase in construction. The LPI metric for the construction land use of Tabriz city had the lowest value for 1984 and has had an increasing trend in later periods, and the cities of Urmia and Maragheh, in addition to the construction land use show an increase in barren land use. The ED metric calculates spot margin density and uses it to measure the degree of connection of land uses. Due to an increase in construction, land uses of the three cities have reduced and they have faced degradation of rangeland over a 35-year period.LSI metric: This indicator represents the standardized size of total length of edge or edge density. The land uses of construction, gardens and green space are showing increasing trend for Tabriz and Maragheh cities, and land uses of vegetation, gardens and green space and construction are showing an increasing trend for Urmia city. This disorder has been more severe between 2000 and 2019. It suggests that the shape of the landscape in cities has become more complex and geometrically irregular. Then, the patterns of urban development trends were analyzed using the Landscape Index. This index is defined according to buffer. In this index, if the newly grown spot belongs to the center and around it, it will be infilling type, if the development is from the margin of empty fields, it will be edge-expansion type, and if the expansion of the area is far from the main area and in empty parts, it will be outlying type.Results and DiscussionNowadays, changing lifestyles and meeting the vital needs of human beings in different regions requires basic information that satellite images make it possible for planners and managers by collecting information from land sources in a regular and systematic framework. Obtaining quantitative data and preparing maps that are a reflection of biological and human phenomena on the surface of the earth over time will solve one of the problems of urban human beings, namely environmental problems. Good urban management requires classification maps in addition to a proper understanding of the nature of components of the landscape. Gaining knowledge on the process of change in the city and directions of its development will play an effective role in managing the current situation.Results obtained for three periods suggest that urban construction had the most changes in the landscape of Tabriz and Maragheh cities between 1984 and 2019, which has led to a reduction in rangeland. The metropolis of Urmia shows the change of agricultural lands and an increase in gardens, in addition to construction. Also, based on the landscape development index, it was found that Tabriz and Urmia develops mostly from suburbs and outskirts, indicating the construction of towns and marginalization development from the center to the outskirts. Expansion of commercial centers and reconstruction of old areas may be one of its reasons. In the Maragheh city, expansion is from the center, which includes the increase of the rural population or the integration of the villages and from distant area, which indicates development of gardens and other things. In general, several influential factors were considered in the present study. By obtaining quantitative data (according to a management principle, non-quantified data cannot be managed) and comparing them with classified maps using object-oriented classification technique, as one of the most accurate and up-to-date classifications, the ecology of cities was examined over a period of 35 years to provide basic information for planners and city managers for major cities that are increasingly growing.
Urban Planning
behzad malekpourasl; pariman boostani
Abstract
Introduction Urban areas as an important factor in enhancing energy consumption and CO2 emissions are the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions which are occurring in most cities all over the globe. (Herring, 2012), (Zubelzu & Fernandez, 2016). Cities consume 67 to 76 percent of energy and ...
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Introduction Urban areas as an important factor in enhancing energy consumption and CO2 emissions are the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions which are occurring in most cities all over the globe. (Herring, 2012), (Zubelzu & Fernandez, 2016). Cities consume 67 to 76 percent of energy and 71 to 76 percent of CO2, and this amount will increase significantly by 2050. (Van der Heijden, 2016), (Lehmann, 2014) 90 percent of urban population growth occurs in developing countries. Therefore, developing countries are more exposed to climate change. (Feliciano & Prosperi, 2011), (Colenbrander, 2015) Carbon footprint in cities depends specifically on factors such as living standards and income, socio-economic development, urban spatial structure and transportation systems, energy technology and local climate change factors. (Feliciano & Prosperi, 2011),(Huang and atel, 2016), ( Colenbrander, 2015)The collaborative process builds trust, new relationships, and interpersonal networks, and ultimately strengthens a higher degree of social, intellectual, and political capital among the actors who are being involved. The collaborative planning process creates new and more flexible institutions for the development of the low-carbon city (Agger & Löfgren, 2008). Considering the advantages of collaborative planning including promoting citizen participation, increasing transparency in the decision-making system and employing experts and specialists related to urban areas, this planning was considered by the researcher so that it could be used by the participation and cooperation of all stakeholders in the city in order to move toward integrated management.Tehran is one of the most polluted cities in the world. According to the annual reports of air quality in Tehran(Tehran Air Quality Control Company (AQCC)), it has been declared unhealthy for more than one third of the year during the last two decades. (Shahbazi and at el, 2019) In this research, we use the requirements of cooperative planning in Tehran due to achieve a low carbon city. Related to the political, financial, environmental and social situations of Tehran metropolis and its potentials to achieve a low carbon city, this city has been selected as a research case. Due to its political aspect, Tehran is the capital of Iran and all political and planning activities are carried out in it. As a result of this fact, this city always examines urban plans in the higher levels of the city, and in fact it is ruled by a top-down planning system. As a result, it has always paid less attention to participatory issues. From an environmental point of view, air pollution in Tehran, which is measured with a particle size of less than ten microns, is almost four times that of Los Angeles. It should be noted that some of these pollutions were due to tougher sanctions in 2010 due to Iran's inability to import higher quality additives used to produce car cleaning fuel. (Tahbaz, 2016) Data and Method In this research, at the first stage, after analysing the quantitative indicators of the research and evaluating them, the research uncertainties will be identified. For this purpose, Micmac software is used to identify uncertainties; on the second stage, with the help of the uncertainty-impact matrix, the critical uncertainties of the research are introduced. These critical uncertainties should be used in the process of low-carbon Tehran development. In the continuation of the research process, variables for these critical uncertainties are defined and entered in the Scenario Wizard software to obtain possible scenarios. With the help of the scenarios which will be obtained from the software, the scenario writing process begins. In order to achieve a better portray in Tehran in the long run, the DPSIR model will also be used. Results and Discussion The phenomena of global warming and climate change, on a scale beyond the city of Tehran, is in fact a matter of concern on a global scale. paying attention to these changes and controlling global temperature requires long-term and sustainable planning. As a result, segment and short-term measures cannot reduce the adverse effects of climate change alone. Since addressing climate change is a global issue, it requires holistic attitudes and cooperation with other global cities. Therefore, Tehran was chosen as the capital of Iran for this study. Because according to global statistics, Tehran is the sixth most polluted city in the world, and this highlights the importance to address the issue of low-carbon cities.ConclusionBy institutional and organizational cooperation as well as the real participation of citizens, it is possible to move towards advancing Tehran's low-carbon goals. It is hoped that by using the principles of participation and strategies to achieve a low-carbon city, Tehran could play a small role in controlling climate change and in fact reducing urban pollutants.Finally, by implementing the strategies which are mentioned in the article, we can move towards a low-carbon Tehran. In this regard, urban institutions should participate and cooperate with each other and citizens should play an active role in urban decision-making. In general, the following suggestions are made in various financial, social, environmental and physical sectors:In the financial sector, the growth of start-ups and microeconomic sectors with the support of the government and private organizationsIn the social sector, creating spaces in urban parks in order to gather people and present their opinions on urban day topics.In the environmental sector, allocating municipal budgets for the construction of solar panels in public organizations and requiring urban industries to plant various green species around factories and urban workshopsIn the physical part, the supervision of Tehran Municipality on preventing dispersal and development of urban disorderIt is hoped that by using this research, a step could be taken towards a low-carbon Tehran.
Climatology
Parichehr mesri alamdari; seyed Hassan rasouli
Abstract
Introduction
With the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in 1830 and the growing growth of human knowledge, various changes have taken place in human life and human needs for energy and consumption of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas have led to a sharp increase in materials such as ...
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Introduction
With the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in 1830 and the growing growth of human knowledge, various changes have taken place in human life and human needs for energy and consumption of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas have led to a sharp increase in materials such as Carbon dioxide has been released into the atmosphere. Increasing its population exacerbates this phenomenon. All of these changes have caused the weather to change. The phenomenon of climate change, which is mainly related to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is a clear example in this field. This phenomenon causes many current problems such as gradual warming of the climate, melting of ice, rising sea levels, torrential rains, increasing drought, acid rain and threats to human health. And wildlife species in different regions of the earth (Atabi et al., 2007: 146). The development of urbanization and migration of rural residents to cities to enjoy the benefits of civilization, especially in the second half of the twentieth century led to the overdevelopment of cities (Alijani et al., 2010: 541). The desirability and quality of urban areas make a difference in the value of land use. Knowledge of how urban temperature patterns are distributed allows planners to manage the construction of urban green space to adjust the temperature. Also, by studying the relationship between user patterns and the distribution of thermal patterns, it is possible to provide programs to change and relocate these uses to improve environmental conditions. Despite the year-on-year changes in the average temperature due to the natural variability of the climate, increasing trends in the average annual temperature are evident in most parts of Iran, including the city of Sari. These increasing trends are mainly due to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (due to the burning of fossil fuels and changes in the surface characteristics of urban areas (Alizadeh Chobari et al., 2016: 571 and 572). In this regard, the city Sari is located in a dense area of activity and residential centers and with its various capabilities has been able to enjoy a special position in the province.This city due to its strategic location and suitable climate and location Tourism and unique agricultural capabilities are facing population growth and increased migration. Considering the challenges such as the increasing growth of the urban population, the uneven expansion of cities, the destruction of the environment, etc., which has reduced the quality of life and created heterogeneous uses in different urban areas; As a result, the climatic parameters of the region are also subject to change. In this regard, the effect of these changes on the city of Sari and solutions to deal with it have been studied.
Methodology
The present research is applied-developmental for the purpose and is descriptive-analytical according to the method of work. In this study, in order to measure the spatial distribution of population in the eleven districts of Sari, data under the Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used. In order to investigate the spatial distribution of population in each area of Sari, the Shannon relative entropy model has been used and to calculate the maximum thermal island intensity, the Oke numerical-theoretical equation has been used. Sari, the capital of Mazandaran province in northern Iran, is one of the largest and most populous cities in Mazandaran province and the north of the country, which is located at 53 degrees and 37 minutes east longitude and 34 degrees and 36 minutes north latitude. In terms of natural location, this city is located in the south of the Caspian Sea and in the plains of Sari city and only its southern and southwestern parts lead to mountains and low satellite hills. The height of the city from the sea level is 18.5 meters and the difference in its area to the coast of the Caspian Sea is 24 kilometers. The general slope of the city is from south to north and is very gentle (Sari Master Plan Studies, Mazand Tarh Consulting Engineers, 2015).
Results and Discussion
In the present study, the relationship between the spatial distribution of the population and the creation of thermal islands in the city of Sari has been investigated. After examining the spatial distribution of population and the intensity of changes in thermal islands, it is concluded that there is a relative relationship between the two indicators of spatial distribution of population and the intensity of changes in thermal islands in Sari. In region 2 of region 3 of Sari city, which had the lowest equilibrium in the spatial distribution of population, the intensity of changes in thermal islands was also low, and in areas where the spatial distribution of population was semi-balanced (region one of region one, regions 1 and 2 from region 2, and region 1 from region 3 of Sari city), the intensity of thermal island changes was low. Also, in the areas where the spatial distribution of the population was balanced (areas 2, 3 and 4 of area one, areas 3 and 4 of area 2 and area one of area 4), the intensity of thermal island changes was low and moderate.
The results indicate the fact that there is a direct relationship between net residential density and the intensity of changes in thermal islands in the city of Sari. As the net residential density increases, the intensity of changes in thermal islands in Sari city increases, and as the net residential density decreases, the intensity of thermal island changes decreases. Based on the findings of the survey of Sari city areas and analysis of the spatial distribution of population and the maximum intensity of thermal island changes, it is concluded that there is a relative relationship between these two indicators in Sari city areas. In the areas that had the lowest equilibrium in the spatial distribution of the population, more intensity changes were observed in the thermal islands and in the areas where the spatial distribution of the population was semi-balanced and balanced, the intensity of changes was less in the heat islands. On the other hand, according to the results of Spearman correlation coefficient, it can be said that the most important effective factor in the maximum intensity of thermal island changes, which is inversely related to this phenomenon, is the net residential density. Areas in Sari that have the highest intensity of thermal island changes
They also had the lowest net residential density. Therefore, it is necessary to apply appropriate policies such as revising and improving management in the way of population loading in various urban development plans and planning for the management and organization of urban structures in relation to the intensity of changes in thermal islands. Can be effective. It can also provide favorable grounds for guiding the development of population policies in various urban development plans to create a balance with sustainability in the city of Sari.
Urban Planning
rasoul ghorbani; shahrivar rostaei; sonya karami
Abstract
Introduction
Recognizing and examining the housing situation in a country depends on identifying and analyzing the factors affecting housing. To assess the housing situation, housing indicators that express the quantity and quality of different dimensions of housing can be studied. Indicators are tools ...
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Introduction
Recognizing and examining the housing situation in a country depends on identifying and analyzing the factors affecting housing. To assess the housing situation, housing indicators that express the quantity and quality of different dimensions of housing can be studied. Indicators are tools to measure the housing situation and its evolution, as well as assess the success rate and implementation of housing policies. Paying attention to the quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing is one of the most important issues in housing planning. Housing, as the most basic human need, has become very important in the life of urban communities, so that it has become one of the most effective components of measuring the quality and well-being of citizens.
Futures studies are now well over 50 years old. Discussants pointed out that the term ‘futurology’ was first introduced by Ossip Flechteim in his 1966 book History and Futurology. Eleonora Masini suggested that Flechteim himself did not have a great deal of confidence in the term, nor was he sure whether the said discipline was a ‘science’ or a ‘prescientific’ branch of knowledge. But he was certain that the new field ranged from ‘the destiny of man, the future of his society to the entire range of his future cultural activities. The strongest defense of ‘futurology’ was provided by Pentti Malaska. Malaska argued, describes ‘what futures knowledge is all about – not only epistemologically, i.e. how to acquire knowledge of the future with different techniques for this or that pragmatic purpose but especially ontologically, i.e. what the knowledge of the future may mean. Dator’s First Law of Futures states, ‘The future cannot be ‘‘predicted’’ but alternative futures can be ‘‘forecasted’’. Warren Wagar in his The Next Three Futures and in tracing the history of future studies consistently uses the term ‘futurism’. Futures studies are a mosaic of approaches, objectives, and methods, and many parts of it are in different stages of evolution.
Methodology
The present research is applied in terms of its purpose and is descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature. To collect data has been used of statistical yearbooks, censuses of different periods as well as completing a questionnaire from 40 experts in the field of housing. To analyze the data and determine the strategic indicators has been used of the method of structural/cross-impact analysis approach with MICMAC software and to determine the most probable scenarios has been used of Wizard scenario software.
Results and Discussion
In the last 40 years in the metropolis of Tabriz, housing has improved in all quantitative indicators except the average number of rooms in a residential unit. Reasons for the decrease in the number of rooms in a residential unit are the change in the architectural style of houses and the transformation of households from widespread to nuclear. Information on the infrastructure of residential units also shows that the infrastructure is moving towards standardization and the number of residential units with very low and very high infrastructure has been decreasing. Regarding the quality of housing, all indicators indicate an improvement of trend in the last 40 years, and the only indicator of the housing ownership, despite the increase in the number of owner-occupied households, shows a decrease in the percentage of owners and an increase in the percentage of tenants. Also among the 16 indicators affecting the quantitative and qualitative status of housing in the metropolis of Tabriz, 5 indicators of the average infrastructure of the residential unit, housing with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years, household density in the residential unit, person density in the residential unit and the average room in the residential unit known as strategic and key variables in the future state of housing and two scenarios were identified as the most likely scenarios in the housing sector in the metropolis of Tabriz. In the first scenario, we will see a decrease in the infrastructure of housing units, a decrease in household density and individual density in a housing unit, and a decrease in the average number of rooms per housing, and an increase in units with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years. In the second scenario, we will see the stability of the infrastructure of housing units, the stability of household density and individual density in the housing unit, and the stability average of rooms in housing, and continue to increase housing with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years.
Conclusion
The results of the present study show that all quantitative indicators of the housing situation in Tabriz have been improved in the last 40 years and only a slight downward trend is observed in the average room index in each residential unit. We also see acceptable growth in housing quality indicators. Although the research results indicate an improving trend in housing quality and quantity indicators in the Tabriz metropolis, there is still a long way to reach the ideal housing conditions. Therefore, to achieve a better quantitative and qualitative status of housing in Tabriz metropolis, conduct comprehensive housing plan studies, employ housing specialists and professors to plan and policy in the field of housing, identify diverse population groups and consider all population groups, age and income and construction of housing in accordance with the needs of each group, using the experiences and studies of successful countries in the field of housing and their adaptation to demographic, cultural and economic conditions of the geographical area and more emphasis on effective housing indicators along with other indicators in housing planning and construction is suggested.
