Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Master Student, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz
2 University of Tabriz
3 Academic Sttaf
Abstract
In the present research, the evaluation of land use changes in Mahabad county in a twenty-year period from 2000 to 2020 and the prediction of its possible trends until 2040 have been discussed. In this research, the images of ETM and OLI sensors of Landsat satellite in three years of 2000, 2010 and 2020 and the supervised classification have been used to detect the changes that have occurred. In addition, in order to simulate land use changes, Markov model and cellular automata have been used. Based on our results, the highest trend of increase was related to the built-up lands and the highest trend of decrease was related to the water bodies of the region. In other words, the area of built-up lands increased from 2367.67 hectares to 71006.08 hectares. Besides, the area of water bodies has reached from 9266.63 hectares to 1164.28 hectares, respectively. In addition, based on the results of the Markov model, it is expected that the trend of land use changes will decrease the area of agricultural lands by 1473.1 hectares, orchards and forests by 810.11 hectares, pasture land by 16455.4 hectares and water bodies by 545.69 hectares. On the other hand, these changes will be accompanied by an increase in the area of barren lands by 11831.72 hectares and built-up lands by 7448.42 hectares. Therefore, the possible trend of changes indicates an increase in the level of barren lands and built-up lands and a decrease in other land uses. The results of the present research highlighted the need to pay attention to the challenge of land use change in Mahabad county and can provide a proper understanding of the dimensions, trends and patterns of land use in the region to officials, researchers and local people.
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