Investigation and modeling of land use changes in Mahabad county using Markov chain model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Master Student, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz

2 University of Tabriz

3 Academic Sttaf

10.22034/gp.2024.60347.3231

Abstract

In the present research, the evaluation of land use changes in Mahabad county in a twenty-year period from 2000 to 2020 and the prediction of its possible trends until 2040 have been discussed. In this research, the images of ETM and OLI sensors of Landsat satellite in three years of 2000, 2010 and 2020 and the supervised classification have been used to detect the changes that have occurred. In addition, in order to simulate land use changes, Markov model and cellular automata have been used. Based on our results, the highest trend of increase was related to the built-up lands and the highest trend of decrease was related to the water bodies of the region. In other words, the area of built-up lands increased from 2367.67 hectares to 71006.08 hectares. Besides, the area of water bodies has reached from 9266.63 hectares to 1164.28 hectares, respectively. In addition, based on the results of the Markov model, it is expected that the trend of land use changes will decrease the area of agricultural lands by 1473.1 hectares, orchards and forests by 810.11 hectares, pasture land by 16455.4 hectares and water bodies by 545.69 hectares. On the other hand, these changes will be accompanied by an increase in the area of barren lands by 11831.72 hectares and built-up lands by 7448.42 hectares. Therefore, the possible trend of changes indicates an increase in the level of barren lands and built-up lands and a decrease in other land uses. The results of the present research highlighted the need to pay attention to the challenge of land use change in Mahabad county and can provide a proper understanding of the dimensions, trends and patterns of land use in the region to officials, researchers and local people.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Full Text

ارزیابی تغییرات کاربری سطح زمین برای دستیابی به اطلاعات مستمر و دقیق در ارتباط با پویایی مناطق مختلف در یک دوره زمانی خاص برای هر نوع برنامه‌ریزی توسعه بسیار مهم است. بر همین اساس، در تحقیق حاضر به مطالعه و ارزیابی روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی شهرستان مهاباد در یک بازه زمانی بیست ساله از 2000 تا 2020 و پیش‌بینی روندهای احتمالی آن تا سال 2040 پرداخته شده است. در تحقیق حاضر، از تصاویر سنجنده‌های ETM و OLI ماهواره لندست در سه تاریخ 2000، 2010 و 2020 و تکنیک طبقه‌بندی نظارت‌شده برای تشخیص تغییرات رخ‌داده بهره گرفته شده است. هم‌چنین، به‌منظور مدل‌سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی از مدل زنجیره مارکوف و سلول‌های خودکار استفاده شده است. مطابق نتایج، اراضی ساخته شده بیشترین افزایش مساحت و پهنه‌های آبی بیشترین کاهش مساحت را نشان داده‌اند به‌نحوی که مساحت اراضی ساخته شده از 67/2367 هکتار به 08/71006 هکتار و مساحت پهنه‌های آبی از 63/9266 هکتار به 28/1164 هکتار رسیده است. علاوه بر این، نتایج مدل مارکوف چنین نشان می‌دهد که روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی منطقه موجب افزایش سطح اراضی بایر و اراضی ساخته شده و کاهش سطح دیگر اراضی شده و چنین انتظار می‌رود که مساحت اراضی زراعی به میزان 1/1473 هکتار، باغات و جنگل‌ها به میزان 11/810 هکتار، اراضی مرتعی به میزان 4/16455 هکتار و پهنه‌های آبی به میزان 69/545 با کاهش و در مقابل، مساحت اراضی بایر به میزان  72/11831 هکتار و اراضی ساخته شده به میزان 42/7448 هکتار افزایش خواهد یافت. به‌طور کلی، پیش‌بینی‌ها روند فزاینده گسترش اراضی ساخته شده و مسکونی و نیز کاهش روزافزون گستره پهنه‌های آبی منطقه را برجسته نموده است که این روند می‌تواند پیامدها و تبعات بسیاری بر توسعه پایدار شهرستان مهاباد به دنبال داشته باشد. بنابراین، نتایج تحقیق حاضر ضرورت توجه به مبحث تغییر کاربری اراضی در محدوده شهرستان مهاباد را برجسته نموده و می‌تواند شناخت مناسبی از ابعاد منفی، روندها و الگوهای کاربری زمین در منطقه به مسئولان، محققان و مردم محلی ارائه دهد.   

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