An analysis of the level of vulnerability of urban areas against the natural hazards of "earthquake" with an emphasis on the crisis management approach (case study: Tabriz metropolis)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.

2 Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.

10.22034/gp.2024.59712.3218

Abstract

Earthquake is one of the most dangerous, destructive and unpredictable natural hazards. Therefore, identify the vulnerable areas of cities is necessary in order to increase the capacity to deal with earthquake risks and crisis management of this risk. In this regard, the present study was written with the aim of investigating the vulnerable levels of Tabriz metropolis against earthquakes and providing crisis management solutions (before the crisis) to reduce the effects of earthquakes. The research method in the current study is mixed (combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches) with a practical purpose and analytical-exploratory nature, in order to analyze information; FAHP method in ArcGIS and PROMETHEE method were used. In addition, the statistical population of the research includes managers, city officials, and academic elites. The sample size of managers and officials was determined using Cohen's method at the 95% confidence level, 90 people, and the method of accessing them is based on the snowball method. The size of the sample of academic elites is also determined based on the targeted Delphi sampling method of 14 people. The findings of the research show that the peripheral and central areas of the city have the highest vulnerability potential. Meanwhile, regions 10 and 1 with net flow of -0.454 and -0.527 are considered among the areas with high vulnerability to earthquakes. Among the factors affecting the vulnerability of these areas, we can mention the proximity to the fault, wear and tear of the tissues, distance from the aid centers, high density and the lack of elasticity of the roads. For this purpose, a systemic and integrated approach is needed in order to be able to recover and empower the community, and in this regard, it is necessary to pay attention to the pre-crisis stage in the dimensions of building retrofitting, improving access and

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Full Text

زلزله یکی از خطرناک‌ترین، مخرب‌ترین و غیرقابل پیشبینی‌ترین مخاطرات طبیعی به‌شمار می‌آید. از این‌رو، شناسایی مناطق آسیب‌پذیر شهرها به‌منظور افزایش ظرفیت مقابله با خطرات زلزله و مدیریت بحران این مخاطره ضروری است. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی سطوح آسیب‌پذیر کلان‌شهر تبریز در برابر زلزله و ارائه‌ی راهکارهای مدیریت بحران (قبل از بحران) برای کاهش اثرات زلزله نگارش شده است. روش تحقیق در مطالعه‌ی حاضر آمیخته (ترکیبی از رویکردهای کیفی و کمی) با هدف کاربردی و ماهیت تحلیلی-اکتشافی می‌باشد که به‌منظور تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات و تهیه‌ی نقشه‌های رقومی از روش FAHP و نرم‌افزار ArcGIS و به‌منظور بررسی آسیب‌پذیری مناطق 10گانه‌ی شهر از روش PROMETHEE استفاده شده است. همچنین جامعه‌ی آماری تحقیق  شامل مدیران و مسئولان شهری و نخبگان دانشگاهی می‌باشد. حجم نمونه‌ی مدیران و مسئولان با استفاده از روش کوهن در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد، 90 نفر تعیین گردیده که نحوه‌ی دسترسی به آنها بر مبنای روش گلوله برفی می‌باشد. حجم نمونه‌ی نخبگان دانشگاهی نیز بر مبنای روش نمونه‌گیری دلفی هدفمند 14 نفر تعیین شده است. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که مناطق حاشیه‌ای و مرکزی شهر بیشترین پتانسیل آسیب‌پذیری را دارا می‌باشند. در این بین مناطق 10 و 1 با کسب جریان خالص 454/0- و 527/0-، جزو مناطق با آسیب‌پذیری خیلی‌زیاد در برابر زلزله محسوب می‌شوند. از عوامل مؤثر بر آسیب‌پذیری این مناطق می‌توان به نزدیکی به گسل، فرسودگی بافت‌ها، دوری از مراکز امدادونجات، تراکم زیاد و همچنین عدم کشش‌پذیری معابر اشاره کرد. بدین منظور نیاز به رویکرد سیستمی و یکپارچه به‌منظور بازگشت‌پذیری و توانمندسازی اجتماع لازم بوده و در این راستا توجه به مرحله‌ی قبل از بحران در ابعاد مقاوم‌سازی ابنیه، ارتقاء دسترسی‌ها و تهیه‌ی طرح‌های موضعی به تفکیک محلات با تأکید بر محلات آسیب‌پذیر ضروری می‌باشد.

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