Comparative Analysis of Building Energy Consumption in Various Cities in Iran under the Influence of Climate Change

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 University of Tabriz

2 The University of Tabriz

3 Academic member at the University of Tabriz

4 CLIMATOLOGY DEPT,UNIVERSITY OF TABRIZ IRAN

10.22034/gp.2024.61175.3250

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of climate change on energy consumption in residential buildings across various Iranian cities over the next 70 years.
To achieve this, climatic data for Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Mashhad, and Kermanshah were generated using Meteonorm 8 software based on existing ten-year climatic data. Following the identification of prevalent residential building types in Iran, a representative sample was selected, and energy simulations were conducted using Design Builder 7.0.0.096 software for the years 2030, 2060, and 2090 in the aforementioned cities.
The results indicated a projected increase in cooling energy demand across all cities in the coming years. Tehran exhibited the most significant changes in annual heating energy, with a projected decrease of 37% in 2060 and 66.64% in 2090 compared to 2030. Tabriz experienced the largest annual increase in cooling energy, with a rise of 37.53% in the first three decades and 75.43% in the subsequent three decades. Overall, projected annual cooling energy changes ranged from 21.36% to 37.53% by 2060 and 44.14% to 75.43% by 2090 across these cities.

Tabriz had the highest annual energy consumption, while Kermanshah had the lowest. Additionally, Tabriz exhibited the highest heating energy consumption, whereas Tehran had the highest cooling energy demand annually. Regarding carbon dioxide emissions, Tehran recorded the highest levels during 2030, 2060, and 2090, with Isfahan showing the most substantial increase in emissions over the seventy-year period. Statistical analyses revealed a significant relationship between temperature changes and time across all cities. However, no significant relationship was found between time and energy consumption or carbon dioxide emissions in these cities. In conclusion, this study highlights the anticipated changes in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in residential buildings across Iranian cities due to climate change.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Full Text

تغییرات اقلیمی چالش­های مهمی برای مصرف انرژی در ساختمان­های مسکونی در سراسر جهان ایجاد می­کنند. هدف این مقاله بررسی تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر مصرف انرژی ساختمان­های مسکونی طی هفتاد سال آینده در شهرهای مختلف ایران می­باشد.

در این راستا، داده­های اقلیمی شهرهای تهران، تبریز، اصفهان، مشهد و کرمانشاه با استفاده از نرم ­افزار Meteonorm 8 برای هفتاد سال آینده  بر اساس داده­های اقلیمی ده ساله موجود تولید شد. پس از شناسایی تیپ غالب ساختمان­های مسکونی در ایران، یک نمونه انتخاب و شبیه­ سازی­های انرژی با استفاده از نرم­افزارDesign Builder 7.0.0.096 برای پنج شهر مذکور در سال­های 2030، 2060 و 2090 انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که طی سال­های آینده، انرژی سرمایشی موردنیاز ساختمان در تمامی شهرها افزایش خواهدیافت. از میان پنج شهر مطالعه­شده، بیشترین تغییرات انرژی گرمایشی سالانه در شهر تهران مشاهده گردید. در این شهر مقدار انرژی گرمایشی در سال 2060 و 2090 نسبت به سال 2030 به ترتیب به میزان 37 درصد و 64/66 درصد کاهش خواهدیافت. بیشترین افزایش انرژی سرمایشی سالانه در شهر تبریز مشاهده گردید؛ به­طوریکه در طی سه دهه اول، انرژی سرمایشی سالانه به میزان 53/37 درصد و در سه دهه دوم به میزان 43/75 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. در مجموع مقدار تغییرات انرژی سرمایشی سالانه در این پنج شهر تا سال 2060 در بازه 53/37- 36/21 درصد و تا سال 2090 در بازه 43/75- 14/44 درصد خواهد بود.

بیشترین انرژی مصرفی سالانه در شهر تبریز، کمترین آن در شهر کرمانشاه، بالاترین مقادیر انرژی گرمایشی مصرفی متعلق به شهر تبریز و بالاترین انرژی سرمایشی سالانه مربوط به شهر تهران می­باشد. همچنین بالاترین مقادیر گاز دی­اکسیدکربن منتشر شده در طی سال­های 2030، 2060 و 2090 مربوط به شهر تهران و بیشترین افزایش انتشار این گاز در طی هفتاد سال آینده مربوط به شهر اصفهان می­باشد.

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