Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 University of Tabriz
2 Academic Member/ University of Tabriz
Abstract
Evaluating and forecasting the changes in habitat quality (HQ) caused by land use/land cover (LULC) variations during urbanization is crucial for establishing a comprehensive ecological planning system and tackling the obstacles to global sustainable development. Over the last several decades, the biodiversity and environmental quality of the northern provinces have seen significant transformations as a result of population growth, urban development, climate change, and the rise in tourist activities. In this research, the LULC maps of Amol City were created for the years 2000 and 2020 using remote sensing data. Additionally, using the CA-Markov model, a simulation was conducted for the year 2035, considering two scenarios: Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Ecological Protection (EP). To assess the spatiotemporal changes occurring at HQ, we integrated the InVEST-HQ model with the CA-Markov model. The findings indicate a significant decline in overall HQ in the city of Amol between 2000 and 2020, mostly due to urbanization and agricultural expansion. Between 2020 and 2035, according to the BAU scenario, the landscape pattern and HQ will continue to deteriorate, following the previous trend of decline. The EP scenario, on the other hand, will be critical in stabilizing and supporting the area's HQ. This emphasizes the significance of preserving ecological spaces like forests and grasslands. The study's maps and findings may assist local managers and related organizations in implementing more efficient plans and solutions for the preservation of these ecosystems.
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