Evaluating and modeling of spatiotemporal land use/land cover change impact on habitat quality (Case study: Amol City)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 University of Tabriz

2 Academic Member/ University of Tabriz

10.22034/gp.2024.61560.3259

Abstract

Evaluating and forecasting the changes in habitat quality (HQ) caused by land use/land cover (LULC) variations during urbanization is crucial for establishing a comprehensive ecological planning system and tackling the obstacles to global sustainable development. Over the last several decades, the biodiversity and environmental quality of the northern provinces have seen significant transformations as a result of population growth, urban development, climate change, and the rise in tourist activities. In this research, the LULC maps of Amol City were created for the years 2000 and 2020 using remote sensing data. Additionally, using the CA-Markov model, a simulation was conducted for the year 2035, considering two scenarios: Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Ecological Protection (EP). To assess the spatiotemporal changes occurring at HQ, we integrated the InVEST-HQ model with the CA-Markov model. The findings indicate a significant decline in overall HQ in the city of Amol between 2000 and 2020, mostly due to urbanization and agricultural expansion. Between 2020 and 2035, according to the BAU scenario, the landscape pattern and HQ will continue to deteriorate, following the previous trend of decline. The EP scenario, on the other hand, will be critical in stabilizing and supporting the area's HQ. This emphasizes the significance of preserving ecological spaces like forests and grasslands. The study's maps and findings may assist local managers and related organizations in implementing more efficient plans and solutions for the preservation of these ecosystems.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Full Text

ارزیابی و پیش‌بینی تکامل کیفیت زیستگاه بر اساس تغییرات کاربری و پوشش اراضی تحت فرآیند شهرنشینی برای برنامه‌ریزی یک سیستم جامع اکولوژیکی و پرداختن به چالش‌های توسعه پایدار مهم است. در دهه­های گذشته، تنوع زیستی و کیفیت زیستگاه استان­های شمالی به دلیل رشد جمعیت، گسترش زمین‌های ساخته شده، تغییر اقلیم و افزایش فعالیت‌های گردشگری دستخوش تغییرات اساسی شده است. در این پژوهش، نقشه‌های کاربری و پوشش اراضی شهر آمل برای سال‌های 2000 و 2020 با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره­ای لندست تهیه شد. علاوه بر این، با استفاده از مدل CA-Markov، یک شبیه‌سازی برای سال 2035 تحت دو سناریو پایه (BAU) و حافظت اکولوژیکی (EP) جهت پیش­بینی و ارزیابی کیفیت و تنوع زیستی منطقه مورد مطالعه در آینده صورت گرفت. برای ارزیابی تغییرات مکانی-زمانی رخ داده در کیفیت زیستگاه، مدل InVEST را با مدل CA-Markov یکپارچه شد. نتایج نشان می­دهد که کیفیت زیستگاه در محدوده­ی شهر آمل به طور قابل توجه­ای در طول دوره 2020-2000 کاهش یافته است که عمدتاً متأثر از گسترش شهرنشینی و توسعه کشاورزی است. در طول دوره 2035-2020 بر اساس سناریو BAU الگوی منظر و کیفیت زیستگاه همچنان روند کاهشی شدید قبلی را حفظ می­کند، در حالی که سناریو EP نقش کلیدی در تثبیت و حمایت از کیفیت و شاخص زیستگاه منطقه خواهد داشت، که اهمیت حفاظت از فضاهای اکولوژیکی مانند پوشش جنگلی و علفزار را برجسته می­کند. این تحقیق فراتر از ارائه شواهد مبنی بر اینکه گسترش شهری یک عامل کلیدی در تغییرات فوق‌الذکر است، اهمیت سنجش از دور را در مدل‌سازی اکولوژیکی به‌ویژه در مناطقی همچون ایران که اطلاعات و جمع آوری داده­ها محدود است را نشان می‌دهد. نتایج این تحقیق با ادغام تصاویر سنجش از دور با تکنیک‌های جدید در پایش تغییرات کاربری و پوشش اراضی اهمیت زیادی برای مدیران محلی و سازمان‌های مربوطه در تعیین راهکارهای موثرتری برای حافظت از زیستگاه‌ها و دستیابی به اهداف توسعه پایدار دارد.

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