Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Post-doctoral researcher of Climatology at University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
2 Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
3 Post-doctoral researcher of Climatology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
Abstract
In this research, the water balance components of the Aras basin area were simulated in the SWAT model for a period of 28 years (1987-2014). For this purpose, the efficiency and capability of the SWAT model by SWAT CUP using the SUFI2 algorithm and based on the observed discharge data in the selected hydrometric station of Aras basin (Bdoy) with 70% of the data (1987-2006) and 30% of the rest (2007-2014) was validated. Based on the raster data input to the model, this basin was divided into 68 subbasins with 1264 hydrological response units (HRUs) and calculations were performed on their level. SWAT model calibration was done by using 14 important parameters that were selected from several parameters based on the comparison of sensitivity analysis results. In the sensitivity analysis stage of the model, parameters related to monthly temperature, air temperature, and soil evaporation factor from.bsn,.wgn, and.hru files were identified as the most effective parameters in simulating the flow discharge of the selected hydrometric station of Aras Basin. By running 300 times of calibration, finally, the best round of simulation based on the target criteria was identified and the output data was evaluated. The efficiency and accuracy of the model in the calibration period (1987-2006) based on the evaluation criteria of NS, P-Factor, R-Factor, and R2 were calculated as 0.64, 0.71, 0.27, and 0.79 respectively, which show the satisfactory performance of the model. In the water balance simulation, it is Aras Basin. The values of these criteria in the validation period were calculated as 0.7, 0.78, 0.3, and 0.68 respectively.
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