Investigation of the Characteristics of the Cold Season Cyclogenesis in Different Phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Mediterranean Region.

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. student of Climatology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.

2 Professor of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

3 Assistant professor of Water Engineering, Shahr-e Kord University, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Shahr-e Kord, Iran.

10.22034/gp.2024.63576.3305

Abstract

To study the cyclogenesis within the Mediterranean region in different phases of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the cold season (November, December, January, and February) between 1989 and 2020, MJO index and mean sea level pressure data from the European Centre for Medium-Term Atmospheric Prediction, ERA5 section were utilized. For visualizing the frequency, depth, and tracking characteristics of cyclogenesis, the University of Melbourne method was used. The results showed that the strongest cyclones in the region formed in phases 8, 6, and 7, respectively, with a pressure less than 994 hPa. In terms of the frequency of cyclogenesis and the core of cyclones in the region, the highest and the lowest amount of cyclogenesis were related to phase 7 and 1, respectively. The results showed that phases 6 and 7 have the strongest central pressures, whereas phases 1, 3, and 5 have the weakest central pressures of the MJO phases. Phase 2 has the lowest value of central pressure and the highest average pressure is related to phase 5. The tracking of cyclones that formed within the Mediterranean region showed that most of the paths that ended in the western regions of Iran were in phases 2 and 8, whereas in other phases, these tracks had a southwest to northwest direction. These situations were the case during phases 3, 4, 6 and 7, which caused most of the cyclones formed in the cold season of the year to affect most of the north-western regions of Iran.

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Full Text

در این مطالعه به‌منظور بررسی وضعیت چرخندزایی در فازهای مختلف مادن-جولیان در منطقه مدیترانه در دوره سرد سال از داده‌های شاخص مادن-جولیان (MJO) و داده‌های فشار تراز دریا مربوط به مرکز پیش‌بینی میان‌مدت جو اروپا بخش ERA5 بین سال‌های 1989 تا 2020 در دوره سرد سال استفاده شده است. ویژگی‌های چرخندزایی در سه بخش فراوانی، عمق و ردیابی چرخندها از الگوریتم تشخیص و مسیریابی چرخند دانشگاه ملبورن در چرخه­های کامل رخداد MJO در دوره مورد مطالعه به دست آمده و تحلیل شدند. نتایج نشان داد قوی‌ترین چرخند‌های منطقه به ترتیب در فازهای 8، 6 و 7 با فشاری کمتر از 994 هکتوپاسکال تشکیل شده‌اند. از نظر فراوانی چرخند‌ها در منطقه بیشترین و کمترین مقدار چرخندزایی به ترتیب مربوط به فاز 7 و فاز 1 رخداد MJO می‌باشد. نتایج حاصل از عمق فشار مرکزی چرخند‌ها نشان داد دو فاز 6 و 7 دارای قوی‌ترین و فازهای 1، 3 و 5 دارای ضعیف‌ترین چرخند‌ها در طی فازهای مادن-جولیان می‌باشند. فاز 2 کمترین مقدار فشار مرکزی را در هسته‌های چرخندی به خود اختصاص داده و بیشترین میانگین فشار نیز در چرخند‌های تولید شده در منطقه مربوط به فاز 5 است. مسیریابی چرخند‌های تشکیل شده در منطقه مدیترانه نشان داد که عمده مسیرهای ختم شده به مناطق غربی ایران در دو فاز 2 و 8 بوده و در سایر فازها مسیری جنوب غرب به شمال شرق به خود گرفته که این وضعیت در فازهای 3، 4، 6 و 7 سبب شده تا عمده چرخند‌های تشکیل شده در دوره سرد سال بیشتر مناطق شمال غرب ایران را متأثر سازد.

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