Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Assistant Professor of Climatology, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
2 Associate professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture & Natural Resources, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran
Abstract
The aim of the present study was to estimate Iran's climate change based on the CMIP6 report with the approach of satellite data using climatic elements (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation) until the year 2100.The tools used in this research included innovative algorithm methods, coding and NASA data. In order to evaluate and predict the climate elements, the moderate scenario (SSP2_4.5) and the very pessimistic scenario (SSP5_8.5) of the Canadian CanESM5 model based on greenhouse gas emissions, which were common socio-economic paths (SSPs), were used. For better analyze, investigate and compare Iran's future climate changes, the studied period of 80 years was divided into the two periods the near future (2021-2060) and the distant future (2061-2100). The results showed that in the first 40-year period (2021-2060), based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the change of climatic elements was reported as minimum temperature of 1.91 °C, maximum temperature of 1.41 °C, and maximum amount of precipitation of 15.22 mm for the coming years. Also, for the second 40-year period (2061-2100), based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the process of changing climate elements with minimum temperature of 1.71 °C, maximum temperature of 1.17 °C and maximum amount of precipitation of 22.25 mm for the coming years were predicted. According to the findings obtained from CMIP6 and using SSP2_4.5 and SSP5_8.5 scenarios in forecasting climatic elements, the results showed that the amount of minimum and maximum temperature climatic elements was associated with an increasing scale and this increase in SSP5_8.5 scenario was greater than in the SSP2_4.5 scenario. Also, the forecast amount of precipitation based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario in the near future period (2021-2060) will be less than the far future period (2061-2100) and the amount of precipitation in the SSP5-8.5 scenario will decrease compared to the SSP2-4.5 scenario.
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