A Study of Climate Change in Iran Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Climatology, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

2 Associate professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture & Natural Resources, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran

10.22034/gp.2024.63432.3304

Abstract

The aim of the present study is to estimate climate change in Iran based on the CMIP6 report, using a satellite data approach and climatic variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation) up to the year 2100. The tools employed in this study include innovative algorithmic methods, coding techniques, and NASA datasets. To assess and predict the aforementioned climatic variables, the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5) and the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) of the Canadian CanESM5 model, which is based on greenhouse gas emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), were used. Additionally, for a better analysis, evaluation, and comparison of future climate changes in Iran, the 80-year study period was divided into two periods: the near future (2021–2060) and the far future (2061–2100). The results showed that for the first 40-year period (2021–2060), based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the changes in climatic variables, minimum temperature of 1.91 °C, maximum temperature of 1.41 °C, and maximum precipitation of 15.22 mm, were predicted. Moreover, for the second 40-year period (2061–2100), based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the changes in climatic variables, minimum temperature of 1.71 °C, maximum temperature of 1.17 °C, and maximum precipitation of 22.25 mm, were predicted. Based on the findings obtained from CMIP6 and using the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in predicting climatic variables, the results indicated that the minimum and maximum temperatures exhibited an increasing trend, and this increase will be greater in the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Additionally, the results showed that the amount of precipitation based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario in the near future period will be lower than in the far future period, and the amount of precipitation in the SSP5-8.5 scenario will have a decreasing trend compared to the SSP2-4.5 scenario.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Full Text

هدف پژوهش حاضر برآورد تغییر اقلیم ایران براساس گزارش CMIP6 با رویکرد داده‌های ماهواره‌ای با استفاده از عناصر اقلیمی (کمینه دما، بیشینه دما و بارش) تا سال 2100 بود. ابزارهای مورد استفاده در این پژوهش شامل روش‌های نوآورانه الگوریتم، کدنویسی و داده‌های ناسا بود. به منظور ارزیابی و پیش‌بینی عناصر اقلیمی مذکور از دو سناریوی حدوسط (SSP2_4.5) و سناریوی خیلی بدبینانه (SSP5_8.5) مدل CanESM5 کانادا مبتنی بر انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای که به عنوان مسیرهای اجتماعی - اقتصادی مشترک (SSPs) بود، استفاده شد. برای تحلیل، بررسی و مقایسه بهتر تغییرات اقلیمی آینده ایران، بازه زمانی مورد مطالعه 80 ساله، به دو دوره آینده نزدیک (2060- 2021) و آینده دور (2100- 2061) تقسیم شد. نتایج نشان داد که در دوره 40 ساله اول (2060-2021) براساس سناریوی SSP2_4.5 تغییر روند عناصر اقلیمی به صورت کمینه دمای 91/1 سانتی‌گراد، بیشینه دمای 41/1 سانتی‌گراد و مقدار بیشینه بارش 22/15 میلی‌متر برای سال‌های آتی گزارش شد.  هم‌چنین برای دوره 40 ساله دوم (2100- 2061) براساس سناریوی SSP2_4.5 تغییر روند عناصر اقلیمی با کمینه دمای 71/1 سانتی‌گراد، بیشینه دمای 17/1 سانتی‌گراد و مقدار بیشینه بارش 25/22 میلی‌متر برای سال‌های آینده پیش‌بینی شدند. با توجه به یافته‌های به دست آمده از CMIP6 و به کمک سناریوی‌های SSP2_4.5 و SSP5_8.5 در پیش‌بینی عناصر اقلیمی، نتایج نشان دادند که مقدار عناصر اقلیمی کمینه و بیشینه دما، با مقیاس افزایشی همراه بود و این افزایش در سناریوی SSP5_8.5 نسبت به سناریوی SSP2_4.5 بیش‌تر بود، هم‌چنین پیش‌بینی مقدار پارامتر اقلیمی بارش براساس سناریوی SSP2_4.5 در دوره آینده نزدیک (2060- 2021)  نسبت به دوره آینده دور (2100- 2061) کم‌تر خواهد بود و مقدار بارش در سناریوی SSP5_8.5 به نسبت سناریوی SSP2_4.5 روند کاهشی خواهد داشت.

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