Analysis of the Evolution and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the City and Urbanization in Iran (1956-2016)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 , Department of Human Geograohy and planning , faculty of geography, university of Tehran, Iran

2 Doctorate Candidate of Spatial Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.22034/gp.2025.62849.3288

Abstract

Objective: This study conducts a quantitative spatial analysis of Iran's urban reconstruction from 1956 to 2016 using historical census data to examine the evolution of urban centers and demographic changes in a complex socio-economic and political landscape. Standard deviation ellipses and spatial statistics techniques help examine patterns of urbanization, centralization, and transformation of urban forms, emphasizing the regular progress of the east towards Tehran as an urban axis.

Methods: The methodology integrates geographic data sets and census statistics by applying hotspot analysis and the global Moran's I statistic to identify trends in urban clustering and spatial correlation. Furthermore, the challenges caused by rapid urban growth, such as development gaps and sustainability of urban and rural areas, are examined.

Results: The analysis findings not only indicate critical periods of urban reconstruction influenced significantly by the Islamic Revolution after 1976 and the Iran-Iraq War but also underscore the impact of socio-political events on Iran's urban development. The research highlights the urgent need to implement sustainable urban planning procedures and equitable regional development policies to address the complexities posed by urbanization.

Conclusions: This study, through analyzing six decades of urban transformation in Iran, found that centralized government policies have exacerbated population concentration and the uneven distribution of resources, leading to spatial inequalities and environmental challenges. The findings indicate a shift in urban development patterns from dispersion to concentration, especially in Tehran. It is suggested that strengthening infrastructure in smaller cities and implementing decentralization policies can pave the way for sustainable and balanced urban development in Iran. Continuing the current trajectory may intensify spatial inequalities and pressure on resources.

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Journal of Geography and Planning

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 31 May 2025

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