Modeling the changes in the net irrigation requiirement of potato plant in the climate change conditions in some regions of Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

2 Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran

10.22034/gp.2025.62828.3287

Abstract

In this study, CanESM2 general circulation model and RCP4.5, RCP2.6, and RCP8.5 scenarios were used to simulate potato water requirement in three periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The results showed the greatest increase in reference evapotranspiration in Hamadan and Shiraz station by 0.29 mm per day in the period of 2071-2100 and RCP8.5 scenario and the greatest decrease in Isfahan station by 0.83 mm per day that will occur in the period 2011-2040 and RCP4.5 scenario. The results showed the greatest decrease in actual evapotranspiration at the Sanandaj station in the period of 2011-2040 and in the RCP8.5 scenario by -206.7 mm and the greatest increase in the actual evapotranspiration at the Tabriz station and in the period of 2071-2100 in The RCP8.5 scenario that will occur at the rate of +121.48 mm. The simulation results of effective precipitation showed that all stations except Sanandaj will face a decrease in effective precipitation. The highest decrease in effective precipitation was observed in the third period (2071-2100), So that the percentage of effective precipitation will fluctuate between 2.4% (Hamadan) and 54.38% (Shahrekord). The effective precipitation in Sanandaj station will increase by nearly 40%. The simulation results of the net irrigation requirement showed that the largest increase is related to the middle stage of potato growth. The highest increase in net irrigation requirement was observed in Tabriz station in RCP4.5 scenario in the third period by 377.28 mm and the lowest increase in Jiroft station in RCP8.5 scenario in the third period by 65.44 mm. According to the obtained results, it can be concluded that the tropical regions of Iran will experience the greatest increase in net irrigation needs under the influence of climate change.

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Journal of Geography and Planning

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 27 June 2025

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