Identification of Influential Drivers and Scenario Planning for Women's Empowerment in Rural and Nomadic Cooperatives and Microfinance Funds in East Azerbaijan Province

This study, adopting a futures-oriented approach, seeks to identify the influential drivers and develop scenarios for women's empowerment within rural and nomadic cooperatives and microfinance funds in East Azerbaijan Province (horizon 2033 [corresponding to the Persian calendar year 1412]). Employing a pragmatic objective, a descriptive-analytical nature, a futures and scenario-based approach, a mixed-methods design, and an exploratory (instrument development) framework, the research's philosophical paradigm emphasizes the coherence of ontology and epistemology within a mixed-methods framework. The data analysis methodology is based on a) bibliometric analysis using VOS viewer, b) structural analysis of key drivers using MICMAC software, and c) the development of consistent scenarios employing Scenario Wizard. The sample comprises active female members of rural cooperatives and microfinance institutions (n=132, through convenience and accessible sampling) and relevant experts and academics (expert panel: n=30). The bibliometric findings indicate that in recent years, salient and emergent keywords such as "rural resilience," "entrepreneurship," "food insecurity," "social capital," and "rural transformation" have established a significant interrelation with the terms "women's capacity" and "rural women's empowerment." The results of the futures analysis reveal that, among nine principal drivers, the variable "changing nature of business considering technological advancements and sustainability and rural transformation initiatives" holds the highest rank in both direct and indirect influence based on the potential impact-dependency matrix. The "optimal economic profit status of new projects resulting from scientific feasibility studies at the commencement of a profession" was identified as the most consistent scenario. Nevertheless, the support for the assumptions underlying the descriptors "changing nature of business considering technological advancements and sustainability and rural transformation initiatives" and "microfinance by women and microfinance institutions as a guarantee for vulnerable and marginalized groups" is notably weak, and unforeseen interferences within these descriptors may potentially destabilize the scenario.