Future Scenario Design and Strategic Pathways for Urban Quality of Life Enhancement in Iranian Metropolises: The Case of Tabriz

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Architecture and Urban planning, Ta.C ،Islamic Azad University ،Tabriz,. Iran

10.22034/gp.2026.70925.3501

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate and identify the critical drivers influencing the quality of life in the metropolis of Tabriz. Understanding these factors can assist in recognizing problematic urban zones, uncovering causes of citizen dissatisfaction, prioritizing residents’ needs, analyzing the impact of socio-demographic variables on quality of life, and monitoring the effectiveness of related policies and strategies.

Methods:

The research is applied in nature and follows a descriptive-analytical approach. The study was conducted in three main phases: (1) identification of critical drivers through theoretical literature review and the Delphi method; (2) development and assessment of probable and desirable scenarios using structural analysis (cross-impact analysis) via MicMac software; and (3) formulation of optimal strategies based on the selected scenario using SWOT analysis. In the first phase, 55 relevant variables were initially identified. In the second phase, critical drivers were extracted using MicMac software, and scenarios were developed accordingly. Subsequently, the most probable and desirable scenarios were selected through expert input via the Delphi panel and Scenario Wizard software.

Results:

The results of the study indicate that among the 55 variables initially identified, 18 variables were found to play the most significant roles as critical driving forces influencing the quality of life in the metropolis of Tabriz. Among the 269 developed scenarios, five were selected as the most plausible and robust, with the first scenario — exhibiting a relative desirability level of 55 percent identified as the optimal scenario for strategic formulation. Considering that most of the key driving forces in the scenario combinations were in static or critical conditions, the first scenario, with its 55 percent relative desirability, was adopted as the strategic baseline. Accordingly, based on this scenario, the contingent (ST) strategy was determined as the most effective and prioritized strategic approach for enhancing the quality of life in Tabriz.

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Main Subjects

Journal of Geography and Planning

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 08 June 2026

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