Scenario-Based Assessment of Future Urban Growth in Alton Kopri, Iraq: An Integrated Cellular Automata and Logistic Regression Approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz

2 Department of ,Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz

3 Department of Surveying Engineering, Technical Engineering College of Kirkuk, Northern Technical University, Kirkuk

10.22034/gp.2026.71446.3513

Abstract

The paper is a simulation of the spatiotemporal post-conflict urban growth of a strategic transit hub, Alton Kopri, in the northern region of Iraq, using an integrated Cellular Automata and Logistic regression model (CA-LR). Urbanization with high rates of urban growth after geopolitical stabilization in 2017 has increased pressure on local agricultural lands and riparian ecosystems. We therefore counted a massive increase in the urban footprint, which grew by 353% overall between 2003 and 2024 using multi-temporal Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery, with an urban footprint presence growing from 8.78 to 39.79 km2. The Logistic Regression model found the Distance to Roads (β = -3.84) and Elevation (β=-6.87) as the main spatial factors, which supports the topographically limited, transportation-based growth trend. The simulation model had excellent validation (Kappa = 0.83; overall LULC accuracy of above 96%). By 2030, three scenarios were projected that included Business as Usual (BAU), River Protection, and Rapid Economic Recovery. Predictions in BAU setting include doubling urban space, which is characterized by ribbon sprawl along the Kirkuk-Erbil highway. It is interesting to note that the River Protection scenario, although successful in preserving the Little Zab ecosystem, led to the creation of a paradoxically greater total urban area (68.282 km2) by moving development into less dense peripheral agricultural areas. These results offer vital decision support indicators to local planners that the densification policy should accompany the policy of conservation of the environment in order to reduce unwanted urban sprawl.

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Journal of Geography and Planning

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 08 June 2026

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