Strategic Scenario Analysis of Water Resources Management in Response to the Water Crisis Based on Spatial Planning (Case Study: East Azerbaijan Province)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 tabriz

2 2. PhD Student in Land-Use Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

10.22034/gp.2026.71497.3516

Abstract

This research adopted an integrated futures-oriented methodology. Key variables affecting the future of water resources—including hydrological indicators, climate change, land-use patterns, socio-economic activities, and water governance mechanisms—were first identified. Expert judgments were then collected and refined through the Delphi method to achieve consensus and finalize the variables. Subsequently, causal–influential relationships among the selected variables were analyzed using structural analysis in MICMAC software to determine their levels of influence and dependence and to identify key drivers and critical uncertainties. Based on these results, the identified key and uncertain variables were entered into Scenario Wizard software, and a cross-impact consistency analysis was conducted to develop internally consistent future.The findings indicate that the realization of rational and coherent scenarios—based on controlled urban development, sustainable population management, groundwater resource restoration, enhanced institutional coordination, and improved policy transparency—can facilitate a transition from the current critical water situation toward relative sustainability. These results provide a futures-based, spatially oriented decision-support framework for informed policymaking in regional water resources management.

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Journal of Geography and Planning

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 27 June 2026

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