Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Ph.D. Student of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
2
Professor of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
10.22034/gp.2026.70883.3498
Abstract
Objective: Climate change and its consequences on the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are among the most important contemporary environmental challenges.
Methods: In this study, daily maximum temperature data for the Tabriz station for the period of 2000 to 2024 were received from the Iran Meteorological Organization, and the extreme temperature threshold was determined using the 95th percentile. To identify the synoptic patterns affecting extreme days, sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height data were extracted from the NOAA database and classified using the Ward hierarchical clustering method and Euclidean distance. Three main patterns were identified and examined by analyzing geopotential height, sea level pressure, omega, relative humidity, and temperature maps at 500 and 850 hPa levels. For future assessment, potential heatwaves for the 2025 to 2050 period were estimated using the Delta statistical downscaling method, based on the output of the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
Results: The establishment of thermal lows over the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, and Pakistan, accompanied by the strengthening of the Azores subtropical ridge at the 500 hPa level, by creating subsidence and transferring hot desert air, has been the main factor for heatwaves in Tabriz. The results of the scenarios indicate the intensification of thermal conditions in the region in the future; in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, an increasing trend of days with temperatures above 36°C was observed with a slope of about 0.37 days per year, while in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, more severe events and longer heatwave periods are predicted.
Conclusion: The results show that extreme heat events are mainly concentrated in July and August, and the probability of occurrence and intensity of heatwaves in Tabriz will increase in the coming decades.
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