Futures studies of the Process of Urban Density Changes (Case Study: Region 2 of Tabriz Municipality)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz , Tabriz, Iran

2 Master of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz , Tabriz, Iran

Abstract

Today,with the ever-increasing advancement in society,it is becoming a major issue for the society of transformation that has always been and continue.The desire for progress,not be possible without this transformation.The future of human beings is a vague and unknown future,and we must always try to know it with the help of future science.in recent decades, due to changes in events in various social, economic ,environmental and urban spheres, discussions about Urban density and Density.human look to the future also differ.This research, is based on a Futures studies approach, that with the using of descriptive-analytic method focus on the issues of urban congestion and future changes.and for data collection, using library-field-based approach and a new planning perspective (Futures studies) also In order to obtain information and collect relevant expert opinions, use of environmental scanning methods and to identify the proponents , the method of analyzing the interactions / structural effects and MICMAC software and for compiling the of the desired scenarios using the SCENARIOWIZARD software To the most important drivers in it The impact of these propellers on the situation has come to light, and, finally, the development of favorable scenarios in the future state of urban density in Region 2 of Tabriz Municipality will be achieved. At first, 60 effective factors identified in the condensation changes inTabriz city were investigated using a analysis MICMAC software of the 13 impeller agents, then by determining 47 possible probabilities for these13 factors and introducing them into the software the SCENARIOWIZARD, the number of strong scenarios4,and and the number of poor scenarios270 and the number of high-compatibility scenarios11.the analyzes from the scenarios show that the future status of the condensation changes in Tabriz city with the desired and better trend However,we should not forget about the occurrence of critical situations of the future situation.

Highlights

Today, with the ever-increasing advancement in society, it is becoming a major issue for the society of transformation that has always been and will continue. As we know, The desire for progress, will not be possible without this transformation. The future of human beings is a vague and unknown future, and we must always try to know it with the help of future science. In this regard, in recent decades, due to changes in events in various social, economic, environmental and urban spheres, discussions about Urban density and Density Construction , human look to the future also differ and new topics such as the future Research and Future Studies. This research, is based on a Futures studies approach, that with the using of descriptive-analytic method focus on the issues of urban congestion and future changes.and for data collection, using library-field-based approach and a new planning perspective (Futures studies) also In order to obtain information and collect relevant expert opinions, use of environmental scanning methods and to identify the proponents and key factors, the method of analyzing the interactions / structural effects and MICMAC software and for compiling the possible scenarios of the desired scenarios using the scenario method in the SCENARIOWIZARD software To the most important drivers and factors in it The impact of these propellers on the situation has come to light, and, finally, the development of favorable and effective scenarios in the future state of urban density in Region 2 of Tabriz Municipality  will be achieved. At first, 60 effective factors identified in the condensation changes inTabriz city were investigated using a analysis MICMAC software of the 13 impeller agents, then by determining 47 possible probabilities for these 13 factors and introducing them into the software the SCENARIOWIZARD, the number of strong scenarios 4, and and the number of poor scenarios 270 and the number of high-compatibility scenarios 11. In total, the analyzes from the scenarios show that the future status of the condensation changes in Tabriz city with the desired and better trend However, we should not forget about the occurrence of critical situations and the deterioration of the future situation

Keywords

Main Subjects

Full Text

امروزه با پیشرفت روزافزونی که در جامعه وجود دارد، یکی از مسائل مهم جامعه تغییر و تحول می­باشد که همواره بوده و ادامه دارد. تمایل به پیشرفت بدون تغییر و تحول امکان­پذیر نیست. آینده پیش ­روی، آینده­ای مبهم و نامعلوم است و باید برای شناخت آن به کمک علم آینده­پژوهی همواره تلاش کنیم. در­ دهه­­های اخیر به دلیل تحولات و دگرگونی­های روی‌داده در عرصه‌های مختلف اجتماعی، اقتصادی، زیست­محیطی در شهرها نگاه انسان به آینده متفاوت شده است. این تحقیق با رویکرد آینده­پژوهی به موضوع تراکم و تغییرات آتی تراکم شهری می­پردازد که با استفاده از روش توصیفی- تحلیلی می‌باشد و برای جمع­آوری اطلاعات از روش کتابخانه­ای- میدانی و دیدگاه نوین برنامه‌ریزی (آینده­پژوهی) همچنین برای به­دست آوردن اطلاعات و جمع‌آوری نظرات کارشناسان از روش پویش محیطی و برای شناسایی پیشران‌ها، از روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل/ ساختاری و نرم‌افزار میک­مک و برای تدوین سناریوهای مطلوب از نرم­افزار سناریوویزارد استفاده گردید تا مهم­ترین پیشران­ها و میزان تأثیرگذاری این پیشران­ها در وضعیت به­وجود آمده و درنهایت تدوین سناریوهای مطلوب در وضعیت آینده تراکم شهری در منطقه ۲ شهرداری تبریز به دست آید.که به صورت خلاصه نتایج به­دست آمده چنین می­باشد: از 60 عامل موثر شناسایی شده در تغییرات تراکمی شهر تبریز بااستفاده از نر­م­افزار میک­مک 13 عامل پیشران به­دست آمد،سپس با تعیین47 وضعیت­های احتمالی برای این13 عامل و وارد کردن آن­ها در نرم­افزار سناریوویزارد،تعداد سناریوهای قوی 4 و تعداد سناریوهای ضعیف 270 و تعداد سناریوهای با سازگاری بالا11 به­دست آمد که تحلیل­های به دست آمده از سناریوها نشان می­دهد که وضعیت آینده تغییرات تراکمی شهر تبریز با روند مطلوب در پیش خواهد بود هرچند نباید از وقوع شرایط بحرانی آینده غافل باشیم.

 

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