Modeling the suitability of Caracal habitat (Caracal caracal, Schreber, 1776) using MaxEnt model in the future climate of Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Master of Environmental Sciences and Engineering - Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Environment, Faculty of natural resources and environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

Abstract

Today, climate change and habitat loss are the biggest threats to wildlife. Therefore, accurate information on ecology and habitat requirements conserve species from these changes and identifying the most important factors to attract species and the development of habitat suitability maps can be considered a species protection process. After leopards and cheetahs, Caracal is the third biggest member of the cat family (Felidae) in Iran that has a key role in controlling of rodent populations and its habitat is mostly in arid areas. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to consider the effects of climate change on Caracal habitats and the distribution of the species under two climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the period of 2061 to 2080 in Iran by using the maximum entropy method. In this study, four groups of environmental variables are used: climat, topography, land cover, and land use. The results showed that distance from the conservation network, distance from sand dunes, and distance from dense forest areas had the greatest impact on the selection of suitable habitat for the Caracal at the present time and for the future time, the variables of mean temperature of warmest quarter and elevation had the highest importance on the distribution of Caracal. In addition, the study of Caracal's habitat suitability maps revealed that these species currently occupy only 13.2% of Iran, which have only 48.2% overlap with the current conservation network. While, in the future, the desired habitat rate of the species under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 will be reached 30.9 and 27.4, respectively, and the amount of overlap with the current protected network will be reduced to about 66%, and the amount of overlap will have arrived at 17.8%.

Highlights

Today, climate change and habitat loss are the biggest threats to wildlife. Therefore, accurate information on ecology and habitat requirements conserve species from these changes and identifying the most important factors to attract species and the development of habitat suitability maps can be considered a species protection process. After leopards and cheetahs, Caracal is the third biggest member of the cat family (Felidae) in Iran that has a key role in controlling of rodent populations and its habitat is mostly in arid areas. Accordingly, in this research by using the maximum entropy method, to investigate the effects of climate change on the degree of desirability of caracal habitats and its effect on the distribution of this species in the present time and under two climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the period of time 2061 to 2080 was paid in Iran. In this study, four groups of environmental variables are used: climate, topography, land cover, and land use. The results showed that in the section on the importance of variables in the selection of habitat by species, the variables of distance from the conservation network, distance from sand dunes, and distance from dense forest areas had the greatest impact on the selection of suitable habitat for the Caracal at the present time and for the future time, the variables of mean temperature of warmest quarter and elevation had the highest importance on the distribution of Caracal. In addition, the results of the survey of the level of suitability of caracal habitats showed that 13.2% of Iran's habitats have sufficient suitability for the species, which overlaps with the current protection network of 48.2%, while the level of desirable habitat for the species in the future Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, it will reach 30.9 and 27.4, respectively, and its overlap with the current protection network will decrease to about 66% and will reach 17.8% overlap.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Journal of Geography and Planning
Volume 28, Issue 87
March 2024
Pages 370-348

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