Impact of Climate Change on Olive Growing Conditions (Case study:Bushehr Province)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Physical Geography, University of Isfahan

2 Department of Physical Geography,University of Isfahan

3 Physical Geography,Geography sciences and Planning,university of Isfahan

Abstract

Reduction in productivity of horticultural and agricultural products, increase in pests, reduction in quality of agricultural products, and threat to food security are the consequences of climate change. The impact of climate change on agriculture leads to an increase in risk and risk-taking in the field of agricultural activities. The results of the observational data review confirm the occurrence of climate change. The annual temperature anomaly of Bushehr province indicated an increase in the frequency of years with temperatures above the average from 1996 to 2021. According to the Pettitt's test, this increase is about 1.2 c˙. In addition, the significant increase in temperature at the 95% confidence level and Z values ≥ 2(in Mann-Kendall test) confirmed the occurrence of climate change in Bushehr province. The estimated data of the model for the future period confirm the continuation of the increasing trend of olive temperature thresholds for the period (2014-2040). The findings of the research indicated that with the increase in temperature for at least the following 20 years, the olive tree's cooling needs will not be met and the flowering season will occur in March instead of April. In the future, more areas will have an annual temperature of more than 26 °C. Therefore, in the future, the olive growing period will increase from 90 days to 150 days. With the increase in the number of days with temperatures above 40°C, the fruit burns more and the quality of olives decreases. Therefore, in addition to Asalouye and Dashtestan counties (1994-2019), Kangan, Jam, Deir and Dashti counties, the northern foothills of the province, and parts of Dilam (2017-2040) are added to the unsuitable olive areas. The favorable areas for olive cultivation will be moved to the west of the province.

Highlights

Climate change has caused a transfer in the zone of agricultural products. Food security and economic development in different zoon are threatened due to the transfer in the zone of agricultural products. In Iran, the production of edible oil is one of the challenges of food security. The olive tree is one of the species. This plant species was selected as a species adapted to the climatic conditions of Bushehr province since the 1990s. With the increase in temperature from the second half of the 1990s onwards, the amount of production and the phenological conditions of the olive tree faced a crisis. The findings indicated that the anomaly and Pettitt Test of the average annual temperature from 1996 to 2021 is more than 1.2°C compared to the period of 1951-1995. The downscaling data (CMPI5) showed the continuation of the trend of increasing temperature in the period of 1997-2040, according to the agreement of the future temperature conditions with the phenological conditions of olives, it was determined that the temperature increase until June led to a decrease in production efficiency and displacement of the plant, stopping the growth of the plant from June to August. (Observations) will be given to May by September (Future). Also, due to the increase of days with temperatures above 40°C, the amount of fruit burn increases. In the past, the unsuitable area for olive cultivation included Asaluyeh and a part of Dashestan. In the future, it will expand very unsuitable olive areas. These areas are: Kangan, Jam, Deir and Dashti (East of Bushehr province) and the foothills of the North province. These findings confirm the hypothesis of the transfer of olive cultivation zone in Bushehr province

Keywords

Main Subjects

Full Text

کاهش بازدهی تولیدات باغی و زراعی، افزایش آفات و کاهش کیفیت محصولات کشاورزی و تهدید امنیت غذایی از پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم هستند. اثر گذاری تغییر اقلیم بر کشاورزی منجر به افزایش ریسک و ریسک پذیری در حوزه فعالیت های کشاورزی می شود. نتایج بررسی داده های مشاهداتی، رخداد تغییر اقلیم در استان بوشهر را تایید می نماید. آنومالی دمای سالانه استان بوشهر بیانگر افزایش فراوانی سالهای با دمای بیش از میانگین از 1996 تا 2021 است. براساس آزمونPettitts این افزایش حدودc˙ 2/1 می باشد. علاوه برآن روند افزایش معنی دار دما در سطح اطمینان 95% و مقادیر 2≥ Z رخداد تغییر اقلیم در استان بوشهر را تایید کرد. داده های برآوردی دوره آینده تداوم روند افزایشی آستانه های دمای زیتون برای دوره (2040-2021) را تایید می کند. یافته های تحقیق نشان داد با افزایش دمای حداقل در 20 سال آینده نیاز سرمایی درخت زیتون تامین نشده و فصل گلدهی بجای فروردین در اسفند رخ می دهد. همچنین پهنه های وسیع تری از استان بوشهر میانگین دمایی بیش از 26 درجه را تجربه خواهد کرد. لذا درآینده دوره توقف رشد زیتون از 90 روز به 150 روز  می رسد. همچنین با افزایش فراوانی روزهای با دمای بیش از c˙ 40 سوختگی میوه بیشتر و­­ کیفیت زیتون کمتر می شود. بنابراین مناطق نامناسب زیتون علاوه بر شهرستان عسلویه و دشتستان شهرستان­های کنگان، جم، دیر و دشتی ، کوهپایه های شمال استان و بخش های از دیلم را نیز شامل می شود و قلمروهای مساعد کشت زیتون به سمت غرب استان جابجا خواهد شد. 

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