The reflection of the water crisis on the hydropolitical scenarios of the Zayandeh Rood watershed

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Political Geography, Khwarazmi University, Tehran. Iran.

Abstract

Security, stability, development and health are on the agenda of all political systems, which have found a close, complementary and increasing relationship with water resources. Therefore, water supply is a special function of the government. Over the past century, the access of political-spatial units and communities to limited sources of fresh water has been involved in many fundamental bottlenecks. In recent decades, Zayandeh Rood watershed has been involved in a series of problems with origins inside and outside the basin, which has resulted in the drying up of most of it, and has affected the security and development of the resident communities in the same proportion. The current article, which is useful, has explained the reflection of the water crisis on the hydropolitical scenarios of the Zayandeh Rood catchment area. The methodology governing descriptive-analytical research. The data required for the research has been collected by library and field method (interview-questionnaire) and analyzed using Micmac, Scenario Wizard and Shannon's entropy model software. The results of the research showed that out of 31 possible situations connected with seven scenarios with strong and likely compatibility, the situations that describe the hydropolitical scenarios of the Zayandeh Rood watershed as critical, which include the possible possible situations. . Therefore, the water crisis had a critical effect on the hydropolitical situation of the area upstream of the Zayandeh Rood catchment area, and the optimal management of water resources at the national level and in accordance with it at the level of the Zayandeh Rood catchment area became the most appropriate solution to prevent the occurrence of a critical situation in the Zayandeh Rood catchment area.

Highlights

The catchment area of Zayandeh Rood has found a worrying situation due to human activities and climate change. In such a way that the reflection of its environmental changes with the view of its extent and depth, the future full of concerns is open to the people and agents of this basin. On the basis of such characteristics and identifiers, it is inevitable to develop future hydropolitical scenarios of the Zaind Roud watershed. For this purpose, first, through library studies and interviews with research experts, the variables affecting the water crisis in the Zayandeh Rood catchment area were identified, and by using Micmac software, nine key variables (drivers) affecting the water crisis in the Zayandeh Rood catchment area were identified. . The way the variables are distributed in the scatter plane shows the instability of the system. With the perspective of the future research approach in this research, different states (uncertainty) from three to five assumptions and a total of 29 possible states were designed for the key drivers. The results of the research showed that the probability of a critical situation is higher than other possible events. In such a way that 53.3% of the situations governing the scenario page are in a critical state. The important issue in formulating future water crisis scenarios in the Zayandeh River catchment area is that the people involved in the field (influencers) can provide a suitable solution for the most likely possible scenario. Therefore, by looking at the hydropolitical situation of the Zayandeh Rood catchment area, the most suitable solution from the expert's point of view is the optimal management of water resources at the national level and correspondingly at the level of the Zayandeh Rood catchment area, which should be implemented in order to prevent the current critical situation from occurring. present in this basin, should be in the focus of attention of landowners and brokers on a national and local scale. There is a need to remind that the findings of the upcoming research can be used for awareness and future planning by the organizations and brokers involved

Keywords

Main Subjects

Full Text

امنیت، ثبات، توسعه و رفاه در دستور کار همه نظام‌های سیاسی است که با منابع آب در دسترس، پیوندی مستقیم، هم‎افزا و فزاینده‎ای یافته‎اند. از این‌رو، تامین آب کارویژه حاکمیتی است. طی یک سده گذشته، دسترسی واحدهای سیاسی- فضایی و جوامع، به منابع محدود آب شیرین درگیر تنگناهای بنیادی فراوانی شده است. حوضه آبریز زاینده رود طی دهه‌های اخیر درگیر یک رشته مسائل با خاستگاه درون و برون حوضه‎ای شده است که به خشکیدن بخش اعظم آن انجامیده و به همان نسبت نیز امنیت و توسعه جوامع ساکن را متاثر کرده است. مقاله حاضر که ماهیتی کاربردی دارد به تبیین اثرات بحران آب بر تدوین سناریوهای هیدروپلیتیک محورِ فرارویِ حوضه آبریز زاینده رود پرداخته است. روش حاکم بر پژوهش توصیفی-تحلیلی است. داده‌های مورد نیاز پژوهش با روش کتابخانه­ای و میدانی( مصاحبه- پرسشنامه) گرد­آوری و با بهره­گیری از نرم‌افزار­­های Micmac،Scenario Wizard  و مدل­ آنتروپی شانون بررسی شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که از 31 وضعیت‌ احتمالی پیونددار با هفت سناریو با سازگاری قوی و محتمل، وضعیت­هایی که سناریوهای هیدروپلیتیک محور فراروی حوضه آبریز زاینده رود را بحرانی بیان می­کنند، بیشترین وضعیت­های احتمالی ممکن را در بر می­گیرند. بنابراین، تاثیر بحران آب بر وضعیت هیدروپلیتیک محور فراروی حوضه آبریز زاینده رود بحرانی نمود یافت و راهکار مدیریت بهینه منابع آب در سطح ملی و متناسب با آن در سطح حوضه آبریز زاینده رود، مناسب‌ترین راهکار برای جلوگیری از رخداد وضعیت بحرانی حوضه آبریز زاینده رود شناخته شد.

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