Investigating the role of resilience on tourism during the crisis of epidemics (case study: Shiraz city)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Geography Group- Yazd University

Abstract

Tourism becomes the largest and most diverse industry in the world, which, as the main source of income and work, plays an important role in the economic growth of the countries of the world. Accidents and crises play the role of inhibiting the development of the industry. Epidemics are distinguished from other crises by the fact that they usually leave the local government. Resilience strategy for quick recovery of destinations affected by the crisis has been introduced. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a research with the aim of investigating the role of resilience in the epidemic crisis in tourist cities. The present research method is analytical-descriptive in nature and it is a survey type by completing a questionnaire. At first, the path analysis model was used to determine the factors on the tourism resilience of the studied city (Shiraz) during the epidemic crisis. Therefore, according to the number of research criteria, the multiple regression test was implemented, which was directly considered first. The combination of resilience is determined as an independent variable on Shiraz as dependent changes. It is considered indirect in the next steps. In the stages of direct research, all research indicators have a significant effect on the dependent variable and there is a significant linear relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. The most direct effect is related to the social-cultural index and the most indirect effect is related to the economic index. In total, the social-cultural index has the highest correlation coefficient among the resilience indices, which indicates the most influential index on the epidemic crisis in Shiraz tourism. The economic index is on the second level. Finally, infrastructure and institutional-organizational indicators are placed in the next ranks with small distances.

Highlights

According to the respondents, the most important aspects during the epidemic crisis are economic, infrastructure, socio-cultural and finally institutional-management aspects. In the economic dimension, the indicator of the amount of income from the tourism sector has the greatest effect on the resilience of the city of Shiraz during the crisis, and the least is the indicator of the dependence of the host city on the tourism economy. According to the respondents, in the socio-cultural dimension during the epidemic crisis in Shiraz city, the use of advertising and media in order to attract tourists, in the infrastructure dimension, the indicator "the presence of necessary medical equipment in the host city" in the institutional-management dimension, the training of capable managers during the epidemic crisis can have the most positive effect on resilience.

In measuring the direct effects of socio-cultural, economic, infrastructure, and finally institutional-management criteria, respectively, they have the largest contribution in predicting the dependent variable. The correlation between resilience indicators as an independent variable on the dependent variable (tourism) is 0.890, which is a strong correlation. There is a significant linear relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable at the 95% level.

In order to obtain the influencing factors on the resilience of Shiraz tourism against the epidemic crisis, the path analysis method has been used. The results indicate the absence of multi-linearity between the independent variables, and therefore, the direct effects obtained for each independent variable are reliable. In general, in the direct and indirect effects of the correlation coefficient of the resilience indicators, the socio-cultural index has the highest correlation coefficient among the resilience indicators, which indicates the most influential index on the epidemic crisis in Shiraz tourism.

 

Conclusion

Contrary to the opinion of many researchers who pay special attention to economic indicators, in this research it is clear that socio-cultural indicators are more important than economic indicators in resilience against the epidemic crisis. The indicators of socio-cultural dimension during the epidemic crisis should be specially considered. But this issue is not the reason for the unimportance and low importance of other dimensions. Governments should pay attention to all this when a crisis occurs. Even the institutional-management dimension, which has the least impact on the epidemic crisis among the resilience indicators, should also be taken into consideration

Keywords

Main Subjects

Full Text

امروزه گردشگری بزرگترین و متنوع‌ترین صنعت دنیا محسوب می‌شود که به مثابه منبع اصلی درآمد و اشتغال، نقش مهمی در رشد اقتصادی کشورها دارد. سوانح و بحران‌ها نقش بازدارندگی توسعه گردشگری را بازی می‌کنند. در این بین اپیدمی‌ها به این خاطر که معمولاً فراتر از مقیاس محلی، کشورها را متأثر می‌کنند از سایر بحران‌ها متمایز می‌باشد. استراتژی تاب‌آوری جهت بازیابی سریع مقاصد تحت تأثیر بحران معرفی شده است. بنابراین ضرورت انجام پژوهشی با هدف بررسی نقش تاب‌آوری در بحران اپیدمی‌ در شهرهای گردشگری ایجاب می‌نماید. روش تحقیق حاضر از نظر ماهیت تحلیلی-توصیفی می‌باشد و از نوع پیمایشی از طریق تکمیل پرسشنامه انجام شده است. در ابتدا برای مشخص کردن عوامل مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری گردشگری شهر مورد مطالعه (شیراز) در زمان بحران اپیدمی، از مدل تحلیل مسیر استفاده شد. از همین رو و با توجه به تعداد معیارهای تحقیق، آزمون رگرسیون چندگانه اجرا شد که ابتدا اثرات مستقیم مدنظر قرار گرفته شد. اثرات ابعاد تاب‌آوری(اقتصادی، اجتماعی-فرهنگی، زیرساختی و نهادی-مدیریتی) بعنوان متغیر مستقل بر گردشگری شیراز بعنوان متغیر وابسته محاسبه گردید. در مراحل بعدی اثرات غیرمستقیم در نظر گرفته شد. در مرحله اثرات مستقیم معلوم شد که معیارهای تحقیق 71% از واریانس بحران اپیدمی را تبیین می‌کنند و اینکه تمام شاخص‌های تحقیق بر متغیر وابسته تأثیر معناداری دارند و بین متغیرهای مستقل و متغیر وابسته رابطه خطی معناداری در سطح 95 درصد وجود دارد. در این خصوص بیشترین تأثیر مستقیم مربوط به شاخص اجتماعی-فرهنگی و بیشترین تأثیر غیرمستقیم متعلق به شاخص اقتصادی است. در مجموع شاخص فرهنگی- اجتماعی بیشترین ضریب همبستگی را در بین شاخص‌های‌تاب‌آوری داراست که نشانگر تأثیرگذارترین شاخص بر بحران اپیدمی در گردشگری شهر شیراز است. شاخص اقتصادی در درجه ‌دوم قرار دارد. در نهایت شاخص‌های زیرساخت و نهادی- سازمانی با فاصله‌های کم در رتبه‌های ‌بعدی قرار می‌گیرند.

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