Prediction of Gully Erosion and identifying factors affecting it using the Maximum Entropy Model and BCC-CSM2-MR climate change models for the years 2020-2040 (case study: Alamarvdasht watershed)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 University of Isfahan

2 بلوار شفق-کوی گلستان-کوچه شماره 8 (شهید مرادی)- ابندای کوچه-پلاک 103-طبقه همکف-ذاکری نژاد

Abstract

Gully erosion is one of the most dangerous types of water erosion that destroys land and disrupts the balance of biological resources and the environment. In this study, the effective factors in gully erosion, prediction and zoning of gully erosion were investigated using the maximum entropy model in Alamarvdasht watershed in Fars province. First, the location of the ditches was prepared through field surveys, aerial photographs and using Google Earth software images, and then the digital layer of the ditches was prepared in point form in the GIS software environment, and in the next step, the basin's physiographic indicators was prepared from in ARC GIS software. In this research, a soil texture map was prepared in GIS software with field operations in the study area and soil sampling and testing, and a land use map and vegetation density was prepared using Landsat satellite images, and then each of the indicators was The ditches were added in the GIS environment. To implement the maximum entropy model, 70% of the data were used for model training and 30% for model testing. In this study, the effect of each other indicators was determined using the Jack Knife test, and finally the most effective indicators were introduced. In order to validate the model, the direction of zoning of gully erosion in the studied area was evaluated using curve (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC). The results of this research showed that climate index, slope, geology, land use, direction of slope and height are the most influential indicators in creating ditch erosion and the AUC=0.997 is at an excellent level.

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فرسایش خندقی یکی از مخاطره آمیز ترین انواع فرسایش آبی است که موجب تخریب اراضی و برهم خوردن تعادل منابع زیستی و محیط زیست می شود. تغییرات اقلیمی بر ویژگی‌های حوضه‌های آبخیز تاثیراتی به جا می‌گذارد که به نوبه خود به تغییر در فرسایش و رسوب حوضه منجر می‌شود. هدف این مطالعه تعیین عوامل موثر در فرسایش خندقی، پیش بینی و پهنه بندی فرسایش خندقی با استفاده از مدل حداکثر آنتروپی می‌باشد. همچنین با تاکید بر نقش عامل فرسایندگی باران، با استفاده از داده‌های خروجی مدل BCC-CSM2-MR، گزارش ششم، سناریو 126 به برآورد و پیش‌یابی تغییرات فرسایش خاک در حوضه آبخیز علامرودشت پرداخته شد. و در ادامه مدل حداکثر آنتروپی محاسبه و مدل برای سال‌های 2020 تا 2040 به منظور نیل به اهداف ارائه شده اجرا شد. ابتدا موقعیت خندق ها از طریق بررسی های میدانی، عکس های هوایی و با استفاده از تصاویر نرم افزار گوگل ارث تهیه گردید و سپس در محیط نرم افزار GIS لایه رقومی خندق ها نیز به صورت نقطه ای تهیه گردید، در مرحله بعدی شاخص های فیزیوگرافی حوضه در نرم افزار ARC GIS تهیه شد. در این تحقیق با عملیات میدانی در منطقه مورد مطالعه و نمونه برداری از خاک و انجام آزمایش، نقشه بافت خاک در نرم افزار GIS و در ادامه نقشه کاربری اراضی و تراکم پوشش گیاهی با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره لندست تهیه گردید و سپس هریک از شاخص ها در محیط GIS اضافه گردید. در این مطالعه با استفاده از آزمون جک نایف میزان تأثیر هر یک از شاخص‌ها بر دیگر شاخص‌ها مشخص شده که در نهایت تأثیرگذارترین شاخص‌ها معرفی شد. جهت اعتبار سنجی مدل پهنه بندی فرسایش خندقی منطقه مورد مطالعه از منحنی (ROC)  و مساحت زیر منحنی  (AUC)استفاده شد. همچنین برای برآورد اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر فرسایش منطقه ابتدا یک نقشه ماهانه با استفاده از مدل حداکثر آنتروپی و سپس یک نقشه متوسط ماهانه تهیه گردید که در این نقشه AUC=0.833 و همچنین چهار نقشه برای چهار فصل سال تهیه گردید نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که در فصل پاییز فرسایش بسیار شدیدتر از فصل های دیگر است که با توجه به اینکه در منطقه مورد مطالعه در فصل پاییز و در ماه‌های آذر و دی بارندگی بسیار شدید و به صورت سیلابی رخ می‌دهد نتایج مدل با اطلاعات منطقه همخوانی دارد و این نشان‌دهنده دقت بالای مدل حداکثر آنتروپی است. همچنین شاخص‌های اقلیم، شیب، زمین شناسی، کاربری اراضی، جهت شیب و ارتفاع تأثیرگذارترین شاخص‌ها در ایجاد فرسایش خندقی است و میزان AUC=0.997  برای آموزش و اجرای مدل در سطح عالی است

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