Assessing the level of vulnerability of urban areas against earthquake crisis using weighted overlay technique and RADIUS model (case study: Ardabil city)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Astara Branch, Islamic Azad University, Astara, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Astara Branch, Islamic Azad University, Asrata, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Natural Geography, Islamic Azad University, Astara Branch, Astara, Iran

4 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Astara Branch, Islamic Azad University, Astara, Iran

Abstract

Earthquake is considered as one of the most catastrophic and destructive types of natural hazards that cause extensive damage to property and assets, especially in urban areas, and cause many human casualties by destroying buildings and urban infrastructure. Therefore, the first and most basic step in crisis management in order to reduce the effects of an earthquake is to identify vulnerable levels against this crisis. In this regard, the present research was written with the aim of evaluating the level of vulnerability of Ardabil city against the earthquake crisis. The research method in the present study is mixed (quantitative and qualitative) with practical purpose and analytical and exploratory nature. The statistical population of the research also included managers and elites of Ardabil city, and the sample size was determined through the Delphi method of 20 experts. Also, in line with information analysis, have been used AHP technique in Expert Choice software, Weighted Overlay method in GIS software, and RADIUS damage estimation model. The findings of the research show that by examining 15 criteria, the criteria of distance from the fault, proximity to hazardous uses and access to service centers have the most importance (influence) to assess vulnerability to earthquakes. Also, according to the evaluation of the examined criteria and its integration in the fuzzy overlay method, it was found that about 13% of the tissue of Ardabil city is in the zone of very high vulnerability and about 18% is in the zone of high vulnerability. On the other hand, the results of the RADIUS model show that 13853 buildings are subject to destruction, 36% of them are in region 1 and 29% of them are in region 4. Also, the number of injured in the possible earthquake is estimated to be 67117 and the number of dead is 3113.

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زلزله به‌عنوان یکی از فاجعه‌بارترین و مخرب‌ترین انواع مخاطرات طبیعی محسوب می‌گردد که با خرابی ساختمان‌ها و زیرساخت‌های شهری، خسارت‌های گسترده‌ای را به اموال و دارایی‌ها به‌ویژه در نواحی شهری وارد کرده و تلفات انسانی بسیاری را موجب می‌گردد. بنابراین اولین و اساسی‌ترین مرحله در راستای برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت بحران به‌منظور کاهش اثرات زلزله، شناسایی سطوح آسیب‌پذیر در برابر این بحران می‌باشد. در این راستا، تحقیق حاضر با هدف ارزیابی سطح آسیب‌پذیری شهر اردبیل در برابر بحران زلزله نگارش شده است. روش تحقیق در مطالعه‌ی حاضر آمیخته (کمی و کیفی) با هدف کاربردی و ماهیت تحلیلی و اکتشافی می‌باشد. جامعه‌ی آماری تحقیق نیز شامل مدیران و نخبگان شهر اردبیل بوده که حجم نمونه از طریق روش دلفی خبرگان 20 تعیین گردیده است. همچنین در راستای تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات از تکنیک AHP در نرم‌افزار Expert Choice، روش Weighted Overlay در نرم‌افزار GIS و همچنین مدل تخمین خسارت RADIUS استفاده شده است. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که با بررسی 15 معیار، معیارهای فاصله از گسل، همجواری با کاربریهای خطرزا و دسترسی به مراکز ،خدمات‌رسان بیشترین اهمیت (تأثیر) را جهت ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری در برابر زلزله داشته‌اند. همچنین با توجه به ارزش‌گذاری معیارهای مورد بررسی و تلفیق آن در روش همپوشانی فازی مشخص گردید که حدود 13 درصد از بافت شهر اردبیل در پهنه‌ی آسیب‌پذیری خیلی‌زیاد و حدود 18 درصد در پهنه‌ی آسیب‌پذیری زیاد قرار دارند. از طرفی نتایج مدل RADIUS نشان می‌دهد که تعداد 13853 ساختمان در معرض تخریب قرار دارند که 36 درصد آنها در منطقه 1 و 29 درصد آنها در منطقه 4 می‌باشند. همچنین تعداد مجروحان در زلزله‌ی احتمالی 67117 و تعداد کشته‌شدگان 3113 برآورد شده است.          

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