Analyzing the Changes in Precipitation in Northwest Iran during the Coming Decades Based on the GCM Models

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Postdoctoral Researcher of Climatology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

2 Faculty of Social Science, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

Abstract

The current research was carried out to analyze the changes in precipitation in northwest Iran during the coming decades based on GCM models. For this purpose, first, the precipitation of 1985-2014 was trended based on the Mann-Kendall test. Then, the daily precipitation data for each of the studied stations was simulated in SDSM6.1 software for 1985-2014. Then, under the scenarios (SSP2-4.5) and (SSP5-8.5) of CanEsm5 and MPI-ESMI-2HR models, the precipitation of 2015-2043 was predicted. To evaluate the performance of CMIP6 models and compare the basic and predicted values, MSE, RMSE, and MAE statistical measures were used. According to the results of the Man-Kendal test, the precipitation of the base period in the stations of Tabriz, Ardabil, Urmia, Takab, and Maragheh has a decreasing trend and in the stations of Meshginshahr, Sardasht, Mako, Khalkhal, Sarab, Jolfa, and Parsabad it has an increasing trend. Among the 12 investigated stations, only the Maragheh station had a significant decreasing trend. In other stations, precipitation trends were not significant. According to the predictions made based on the mentioned models, under the medium scenario (SSP 2-4.5), the precipitation will decrease in late winter and early spring. In other months, especially summer and autumn months, the percentage of precipitation will be higher. Based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the highest percentage of precipitation decrease in the MPI model was predicted by 33% in Jolfa, Sardasht, and Maragheh stations, and in the CanESM5 model, about 33-35% in Jolfa, Takab, and Urmia stations. According to the results, although both models predicted precipitation with a relatively high error, the MPI model had a lower error and more accuracy in predicting precipitation than the CanESM5 model.

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Full Text

پژوهش حاضر با هدف واکاوی تغییرات بارش شمال غرب ایران طی دهه­های آتی بر اساس مدل­های GCM صورت گرفته است. بدین منظور، ابتدا بارش سال­های 2014-1985 بر اساس آزمون من- کندال روندیابی گردید. سپس داده­های روزانه بارش برای هر یک از ایستگاه­های مورد مطالعه در نرم‌افزار SDSM6.1 برای 2014-1985 شبیه‌سازی ‌شد. آنگاه تحت سناریوهای (SSP2-4.5) و (8.5-SSP5) مدل­های CanEsm5 و MPI-ESMI-2HR، بارش سال‌های 2043-2015 پیش­بینی شد. جهت ارزیابی عملکرد مدل­های CMIP6 و مقایسه­ مقادیر پایه و پیش‌بینی‌شده، از سنجه­های­ آماری MSE،RMSE  و MAE استفاده شد. بر اساس نتایج آزمون من- کندال، بارش دوره پایه در ایستگاه­های تبریز، اردبیل، ارومیه، تکاب و مراغه دارای روند کاهشی و در ایستگاه­های مشگین­شهر، سردشت، ماکو، خلخال، سراب، جلفا و پارس‌آباد دارای روند افزایشی بود. از بین 12 ایستگاه مورد بررسی، فقط بارش ایستگاه مراغه روند کاهشی معنادار داشت. در سایر ایستگاه­ها روندهای بارش معنی­دار نبود. بر اساس پیش­بینی­های انجام شده بر اساس مدل­های مذکور، تحت سناریوی متوسط (SSP 2-4.5)، در اواخر زمستان و اوایل بهار، بارش کاهش  خواهد یافت. در سایر ماه­ها به‌ویژه ماه­های تابستان و پاییز، درصد کاهش بارش بیشتر خواهد بود. بر اساس سناریوی 8.5-SSP5، بیشترین درصد کاهش بارش در مدل MPI به میزان 33%  در ایستگاه­های جلفا، سردشت، مراغه و در مدل CanESM5 حدود 33 الی 35 درصد در ایستگاه­های جلفا، تکاب و ارومیه پیش­بینی گردید. طبق نتایج حاصل، اگرچه هر دو مدل، بارش را با خطای نسبتاً بالایی پیش­بینی نمودند، لیکن مدل MPI نسبت به مدل CanESM5 خطای کمتر و دقت بیشتری در پیش‌بینی بارش داشت

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