Analyzing the natural and human causes of the Mashhad flood and ways to prevent

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Associate Professor, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

10.22034/gp.2024.63109.3296

Abstract

The city of Mashhad, with a population of more than 3 million people, ranks as Iran's second-largest city. To enhance its resilience against environmental hazards, the adoption of new technologies is increasingly essential. On May 26, 1403, during a 48-minute rain due to the formation of a cumulonimbus cloud and the strengthening of its ascending conditions by a Trough on top of it, a flood occurred in the city of Mashhad led to heavy financial and human losses in different areas. This study aims to explore both natural and human factors contributing to the flood through a holistic approach. To analyze the synoptic meteorological causes, data from the ERA-5 and its maps were utilized in GrADS. Additionally, Landsat satellite imagery and digital elevation data were employed to identify waterways and canals. Google Earth and GEE software were also used to assess changes in the landscape. The results showed that in terms of intensity and duration of rainfall, the rainfall was unprecedented rainfall, and according to the threshold of 95% percentile, it is considered as extreme rainfall category (above 95% percentile). The results of this study clearly show that human encroachments, especially in urban construction and the expansion of urban roads and highways perpendicular to the seasonal and dry rivers of the city, have strongly affected the water flow pattern and increased the risk of floods. The neglect of urban geomorphology, including the destruction of natural water pathways, the construction of barriers against water flows ways like those in the Seyyedi region, and the expansion of roads perpendicular to these waterways, was intensified flooding issues in various areas in Mashhad city.

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شهر مشهد با جمعیتی بیش از 3 میلیون نفر دومین کلان شهر ایران محسوب می‌شود و جهت افزایش تاب‌آوری آن نسبت به مخاطرات محیطی نیاز به فن‌آوری‌های جدید بیشتر احساس می‌شود. در روز 26 اردیبهشت 1403 طی بارش 48 دقیقه‌ای در اثر تشکیل یک ابر کومولونیمبوس و تقویت شرایط صعودی آن توسط ناوه‌ای بر گستره‌ی آن، در شهر مشهد سیل جاری شد و منجر به خسارت مالی و جانی سنگین در مناطق مختلف گردید. این مطالعه سعی دارد با رعایت اصل کل‌نگر دلایل طبیعی و انسانی آن را تشریح نماید. در این راستا جهت بررسی دلایل هواشناسی سینوپتیک از داده‌های شبکه  ERA-5 و ترسیم نقشه‌های آن در گردس (GRADS) استفاده شد. علاوه بر آن از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای لندست (LANDSAT) و داده‌های ارتفاع رقومی منطقه جهت استخراج آبراهه‌ها و مسیل بهره گرفته شد. همزمان از نرم‌افزار گوگل ارث و همچنین  GEEجهت ارزیابی تغییرات نیز استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد بارش مدنظر از لحاظ شدت و مدت بارندگی جزو بارش‌های بی‌سابقه بوده، ولی به لحاظ میزان بارندگی در دستۀ بارندگی‌های فرین (بالاتر از صدک 95 درصد) محسوب می‌شود. نتایج این مطالعه به وضوح نمایانگر آن است که دخل و تصرف‌های انسانی، به ویژه در ساخت و سازهای شهری و گسترش جاده‌ها و اتوبان‌های شهری عمود بر بستر رودخانه‌های فصلی و خشک شهر، به شدت بر روی الگوی جریان آب تأثیر گذاشته و موجب افزایش خطر سیلاب‌های شهری شده است. بی‌توجهی به ژئومورفولوژی شهر از جمله تخریب مسیل‌ها، ایجاد موانع در برابر جریان‌های آب (مانند منطقه سیدی) و گسترش جاده‌های عمود بر این آبراهه‌ها، منجر به تشدید حوادث سیلاب‌ در مناطق مختلف شهر مشهد شد.

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