Vulnerability zoning of Ardabil city against earthquake risk

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate professor of Geomorghology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil

2 Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili

Abstract

The danger of earthquakes causes irreparable damage to societies. Therefore, it is effective to prepare to deal with it by identifying vulnerable points. Ardabil City is not exempt from this rule due to the existence of many faults, seismic points, and non-compliance with standards. Based on this, the current research seeks to measure and evaluate the vulnerability of Ardabil City against the risk of earthquakes. For this purpose, first by examining research sources related to the subject, some of the most important factors affecting the occurrence of this phenomenon were prepared as independent variables. Valuation and standardization of the layers were done by using the fuzzy membership function and weighting of the criteria, using the CRITIC method. Finally, modeling was done using the MARCOS multi-criteria decision-making method. The results of the study showed, respectively; The factors of distance from the fault, land use, and distance from the earthquake center have the greatest influence on the occurrence of earthquakes in the region with the weight coefficient of 0.110, 0.104, and 0.102. In addition, according to the results of the research, 16.67% of the entire city of Ardabil has a high vulnerability potential and 30.27% has a relatively high vulnerability probability. Also, based on the results of the research, Ardabil city is at an average level in terms of the level of vulnerability to earthquake risk, the cities of Hir and Arallo are in the high vulnerability category and Somarin city is in the relatively high vulnerability zone. In addition, according to the findings of the research, 22.86 and 30.86 percent of the settlements and villages of Ardabil, respectively; In the area with high and relatively high vulnerability, 13.14% in the area with moderate vulnerability, and respectively; 22.28 and 10.86% are located in the area with relatively low and low earthquake vulnerability.

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Full Text

خطر زلزله همواره بر جوامع بشری سایه افکنده و خسارات جبران­ناپذیری به این جوامع وارد می­کند. بنابراین آمادگی برای مقابله با این بحران با شناسایی نقاط آسیب­پذیر و رفع آن­ها در کاهش خسارات ناشی از زلزله مؤثر است. در این میان شهرستان اردبیل با توجه به وجود گسل­های متعدد، نقاط لرزه­خیز، عدم رعایت استاندارد­ها و غیره، از این قاعده مستثنی نمی­باشد. بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر به دنبال سنجش و ارزیابی آسیب­پذیری شهرستان اردبیل در برابر خطر زلزله، می­باشد. بدین منظور ابتدا با بررسی منابع پژوهشی مرتبط با موضوع، برخی از مهمترین عوامل مؤثر بر وقوع این پدیده، به عنوان متغیر­های مستقل تهیه شد. ارزش­گذاری و استاندارد­سازی لایه­ها، با استفاده از تابع عضویت فازی و وزن­دهی معیار­ها، با بهره­گیری از روش کرتیک انجام گردید. در نهایت مدل­سازی با استفاده از روش­تصمیم­گیری چند معیارۀ مارکوس صورت گرفت. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد، به ترتیب؛ عوامل فاصله از گسل، کاربری اراضی و فاصله از کانون زلزله، با ضریب وزنی 110/0، 104/0 و 102/0، بیشترین تأثیر­گذاری را در رخداد زمین­لرزه منطقه دارند. به علاوه با توجه به نتایج حاصل از پژوهش، 67/16 درصد، از کل شهرستان اردبیل، دارای پتانسیل آسیب­پذیری زیاد و 27/30 درصد، دارای احتمال آسیب­پذیری نسبتاً زیاد است. همچنین بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، شهر اردبیل از نظر میزان آسیب­پذیری در برابر خطر زلزله، در سطح متوسط می­باشد و شهرهای هیر و آراللو در طبقه آسیب­پذیری زیاد و شهر ثمرین در پهنۀ آسیب­پذیری نسبتاً زیاد قرار دارند. به علاوه، طبق یافته­های پژوهش، 86/ 22 و 86/30 درصد از آبادی­ها و روستا­های شهرستان اردبیل، به ترتیب؛ در پهنه با آسیب­پذیری زیاد و نسبتاً زیاد، 14/13 درصد در پهنه با آسیب­پذیری متوسط و به ترتیب؛ 28/22 و 86/10 درصد در پهنه با آسیب­پذیری نسبتاً کم و کم، زلزله قرار دارند.

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