Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Assistant Professor of Climatology, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
2
Associate professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture & Natural Resources, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran
10.22034/gp.2024.63432.3304
Abstract
The aim of the present study is to estimate climate change in Iran based on the CMIP6 report, using a satellite data approach and climatic variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation) up to the year 2100. The tools employed in this study include innovative algorithmic methods, coding techniques, and NASA datasets. To assess and predict the aforementioned climatic variables, the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5) and the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) of the Canadian CanESM5 model, which is based on greenhouse gas emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), were used. Additionally, for a better analysis, evaluation, and comparison of future climate changes in Iran, the 80-year study period was divided into two periods: the near future (2021–2060) and the far future (2061–2100). The results showed that for the first 40-year period (2021–2060), based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the changes in climatic variables, minimum temperature of 1.91 °C, maximum temperature of 1.41 °C, and maximum precipitation of 15.22 mm, were predicted. Moreover, for the second 40-year period (2061–2100), based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the changes in climatic variables, minimum temperature of 1.71 °C, maximum temperature of 1.17 °C, and maximum precipitation of 22.25 mm, were predicted. Based on the findings obtained from CMIP6 and using the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in predicting climatic variables, the results indicated that the minimum and maximum temperatures exhibited an increasing trend, and this increase will be greater in the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Additionally, the results showed that the amount of precipitation based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario in the near future period will be lower than in the far future period, and the amount of precipitation in the SSP5-8.5 scenario will have a decreasing trend compared to the SSP2-4.5 scenario.
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