Analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of wind gusts occurring in the western and northwestern regions of Iran and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

Naseri, Alireza; Keikhosravi, Ghasem; Mohamadi, Zinab

doi:10.22034/gp.2025.65401.3357

Analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of wind gusts occurring in the western and northwestern regions of Iran and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ Shahid Beheshti University

² University of Shahid Beheshti

10.22034/gp.2025.65401.3357

Abstract

In this study, to analyze gusty winds, after collecting gusty wind events from meteorological stations, the Mann-Kendall method and P Value statistic were used to determine the seasonal trend. to investigate the impact of meteorological elements such as pressure, temperature, and teleconnection patterns, regression approaches based on machine learning algorithms in the R programming environment. In terms of spatial distribution, the northeastern parts of the region (Tabriz, Ardabil, and Qazvin provinces) are more prone to gusty winds than other parts of the region. In terms of temporal distribution, most gusty winds occur in spring and winter. In examining the influence of each of the predictor components (pressure and temperature) on the response variable (wind gust) based on the output of the MLR and RW model results, it was determined that in 67 percent of the meteorological stations, the air pressure is introduced as the most important influencing factor in the occurrence of gusty winds. In examining the seasonal trend of gusty winds, the occurrence of gusty winds increases in 78 and 72 percent of stations in winter and spring, respectively. In the summer, the prevailing trend in most of the region is upward, and in the fall, stations in the southern, western, and northwestern parts of the region generally have increased occurrences. In examining the teleconnection patterns, in winter, the East Atlantic-West Russian (EA/WR) pattern and the Polar-Eurasian (POL) pattern, in spring, the West Pacific (WP) and East Atlantic (EA) patterns, in summer the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and in autumn the two Scandinavian patterns (SCA) and the Tropical-Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern are considered to be the most important predictor variables affecting gusty wind events.

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