Land use Planning
Bahman Veisi Nabikandi; Abolfazl Ghanbari
Abstract
Evaluating and forecasting the changes in habitat quality (HQ) caused by land use/land cover (LULC) variations during urbanization is crucial for establishing a comprehensive ecological planning system and tackling the obstacles to global sustainable development. Over the last several decades, the biodiversity ...
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Evaluating and forecasting the changes in habitat quality (HQ) caused by land use/land cover (LULC) variations during urbanization is crucial for establishing a comprehensive ecological planning system and tackling the obstacles to global sustainable development. Over the last several decades, the biodiversity and environmental quality of the northern provinces have seen significant transformations as a result of population growth, urban development, climate change, and the rise in tourist activities. In this research, the LULC maps of Amol City were created for the years 2000 and 2020 using remote sensing data. Additionally, using the CA-Markov model, a simulation was conducted for the year 2035, considering two scenarios: Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Ecological Protection (EP). To assess the spatiotemporal changes occurring at HQ, we integrated the InVEST-HQ model with the CA-Markov model. The findings indicate a significant decline in overall HQ in the city of Amol between 2000 and 2020, mostly due to urbanization and agricultural expansion. Between 2020 and 2035, according to the BAU scenario, the landscape pattern and HQ will continue to deteriorate, following the previous trend of decline. The EP scenario, on the other hand, will be critical in stabilizing and supporting the area's HQ. This emphasizes the significance of preserving ecological spaces like forests and grasslands. The study's maps and findings may assist local managers and related organizations in implementing more efficient plans and solutions for the preservation of these ecosystems.
Geotourism
Abolfazl Ghanbari; Taha Imanzadeh; khatereh Abdi
Abstract
Tourism in the New World has been considered by decision makers as an important industry in the economic development of countries. In order to achieve this and its expansion, the issue of security is undoubtedly one of the important parameters that researchers have paid special attention to; Therefore, ...
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Tourism in the New World has been considered by decision makers as an important industry in the economic development of countries. In order to achieve this and its expansion, the issue of security is undoubtedly one of the important parameters that researchers have paid special attention to; Therefore, in the present study, the role of security in the development of foreign tourism will be investigated. The results of research studies indicate that different types of security, including financial, social security, etc., as well as how to present the image of Iran and advertising, affect the development of foreign tourism in Iran. For this reason, recognizing the role of security in the experience of tourism and marketing of government officials in order to create more security and promote it, is very important. In this study, to investigate the role of security in the development of foreign tourism, a researcher-made questionnaire with 25 indicators and a Likert scale was prepared and distributed among foreign tourists in the city of Tabriz. 70 questionnaires were completed in three weeks, of which 65 were suitable for use; The reliability and validity of the questionnaires were calculated using Cronbach's alpha coefficient and analyzed by structural equation modeling with least squares approach (PLS-SEM). The model variables of the role of security in the development of foreign tourism were extracted from the summary of previous studies. The results show that the factor of political security with a path coefficient of 0.327 has the greatest impact on the factors of development of foreign tourism.
Urban Planning
Abolfazl Ghanbari; Mir Hossein Pourbagher
Abstract
In this study, using images of Landsat-8, Landsat-7 and Sentinel-2 satellites in the coding environment of Google Earth Engine, their uses and changes during the two periods before and after urbanization (from 2000 to 2008 and from 2008 to 2019) will be categorized and then the next five-year development ...
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In this study, using images of Landsat-8, Landsat-7 and Sentinel-2 satellites in the coding environment of Google Earth Engine, their uses and changes during the two periods before and after urbanization (from 2000 to 2008 and from 2008 to 2019) will be categorized and then the next five-year development forecast of Sahand city (until 2025) will be made. Perceptron multilayer artificial neural network (MLP) method has been used as a method for predicting spatial multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). The independent variables used in the present study in predicting the physical development of the city are land price, type of use, slope, slope direction, altitude, distance from urban areas, distance from waterway network, distance from fault, distance from network Passages (main and secondary). The results of classification of satellite images showed that the physical development of Sahand new city has been done in order to turn barren lands into urban land. In addition, physical development was built to turn cheaper land into areas. The built lands have been greatly developed and from 64,155 square meters in 2000 to 682,192 square meters in 2019. Among the image classification methods for land use extraction, the SVM method was the best method and also the Sentinel-2 satellite images had the highest accuracy. The multilayer perceptron artificial neural network was used to predict the future physical development of the new city of Sahand, which according to studies, the development is predicted in directions that are based on the cheapness of the land and the limitations. Geomorphological is like slope and altitude.
All other Geographic fields of studies , Interdisciplinary
Abolfazl Ghanbari; Abolgasem Taghizad Fanid; Mohammad Abar
Abstract
Introduction: The purpose of the spatial planning is to achieve the most desirable distribution of population, by the best form of distribution of economic and social activities across land, which has not yet been seriously addressed, or at least showed its manifestations, and ...
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Introduction: The purpose of the spatial planning is to achieve the most desirable distribution of population, by the best form of distribution of economic and social activities across land, which has not yet been seriously addressed, or at least showed its manifestations, and in this time spatial planning as a necessity has been paid. The planning plans of East Azerbaijan province are no exception to this rule and at present in the field of preparing the planning plan of the province, there are many issues, the most obvious of which is the lack of practical participation of involved institutions and effective elements in governing the province. Citizens in different stages of preparing the provincial planning plan, not paying attention to the institutional aspects of land management and provincial planning management, the existence of legal ambiguities and significant institutional vacuum in the field of provincial planning management and not knowing the basis of the provincial planning plan and legal authorities Preparation, approval, monitoring, feedback and review, etc. Therefore, recognizing the obstacles and problems of land management plans implemented in particular and the country's development plans in general, is very important in development plans; Because recognizing the problems of the previous plans helps to some extent to avoid those obstacles and problems in writing and implementing the next landscaping plans, and in this way, to achieve the desired future or the balanced development. Therefore, due to the importance of conducting planning studies in East Azerbaijan, in this study, the effective factors in the implementation and causes, factors and obstacles of research plans in East Azerbaijan province have been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze and evaluate these challenges and obstacles to the implementation of development programs in the realization of land management and tries to answer the following questions; 1) What are the reasons for the non-realization of land management plans in East Azerbaijan? And 2) What are the effective factors in the implementation of the land management plan in East Azerbaijan province?Data and Method The present research was applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of nature and descriptive-analytical method, and documentary and field studies were used to collect data and information. The statistical population of this study includes 197 scientific elites (university professors and doctoral students, masters in urban, rural, regional planning and urban planning), experts and specialists in urban management in East Azerbaijan province. To analyze the data using quantitative methods such as; Structural equations were used in PLS software, regression and path-analysis. Results and Discussion The results of research on the reasons for non-implementation of land management plan in the province using structural equation testing in PLS software show; The variable "administrative" with a square value (0.452) is higher than the standard value (0.33) and is therefore described as "average" threshold; The variable "space organization" with a square value (0.4) is greater than the standard value (0.33) and is therefore described as "average" threshold; The variable "economic" with the square value (0.346) is higher than the standard value (0.33) and is therefore described as "average" threshold; The variable "development plans" with a square value (0.740) is greater than the standard value (0.67) and is therefore described as "significant" on the threshold. The results of the study of path coefficients (beta) showed that the administrative and managerial, economic, political and security factors and the space organization have "moderate" values and the "development plans" factor has "strong" values to determine power. Model predictions about endogenous latent variables in the context of land management plans in East Azerbaijan province. Therefore, due to the high values of all values for the variable "Development Plans", it is concluded that the variable "Development Plans" has the greatest impact on the non-implementation of land management plan in the province of East Azerbaijan. For example, land use planning with an all-inclusive approach and rational use of resources and talents in different regions of the country tries to deal with the phenomenon of regional imbalance and provide appropriate solutions for achieving balanced and sustainable development at the land level. However, the lack of proper and complete implementation of development programs in East Azerbaijan province has become the most important obstacle to achieving land management goals. Also, the results in the field of effective factors in the implementation of land management plan in East Azerbaijan province showed that the status of indicators of geographical conditions with a value of T about 9.65 and with a significant level of 0.000, implementation planning with a value of 1.77 and with Significance level of 0.007, institutional with a value of T57.57 and managerial and institutional with a value of T60.60 and significant level of 0.000 in a favorable situation compared to other effective areas in the implementation of land management plan in the study area (province) East Azerbaijan). Also, the results of the route analysis test showed that the most general effect in the field of land management plan is related to socio-cultural conditions with a total effect (0.305) and an institutional index with an overall effect of 0.206. Also, the lowest overall effect is related to the management and legal index with a rate of 0.054. The general effects indicate that in East Azarbaijan province, areas such as imbalance in the population scale of the cities of the province, lack of necessary policies on how to distribute the population in the province, intense concentration of population and activities in the central part of the province. ; Provincial view of organizing hierarchies of urban settlements instead of macro-regional view of territorial areas; Existence of specialized and educated manpower without jobs in the province; High unemployment of young people and university graduates, unfavorable organization of the housing system in the province; Lack of attention to social and human capital in the province; Weakness of participatory foundations and civic institutions in the field of social activities and in the institutional field, restriction of people's participation in formulating policies and programs; The traditional nature of the planning system in accepting the planning approach, the lack of successful implementation and the lack of efficient upstream documents, the weak belief of those in charge of the effectiveness of the planning approach in achieving integrated and sustainable development, limited flexibility in planning strategies; Lack of appropriate rules and regulations and systematic and institutional thinking for land management; Lack of clear and responsible legal institutions for land management, etc. are the areas and factors that have a significant impact on the implementation of land management plans in East Azerbaijan province and sometimes prevent the proper and complete implementation of such plans and plans. To be. In this regard, it can be said that the results of this research with the results of research of Bouzarjmehri et al. In (1397), technical and colleagues in (1397), Jafarian et al. (1397), Tavakoli et al. (1396), Taqvaei and Et al. (2010), Akbari et al. (2015), Sarvar and Khaleiji (2014), Saniei (2011), Sharifzadegan (2010), Latifi (2009), Razavi (2010), Salehi and Pour Asghar (2009) Of Tennessee Valley Civil Organization Studies; The findings of studies by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), etc. are in line and most of these studies with obstacles, causes and strategies for advancing land management plans spatially in various fields.Conclusion The results showed that the administrative and administrative, economic, political and security factors and the spatial organization have "moderate" values and the factor of "programs of development" have strong "values" to determine the model predictions about endogenous latent variables in spatial planning schemes in east Azerbaijan province. Therefore, considering the high values of all values, it is said that the "development plans" index has the greatest impact on the non - realization of spatial planning schemes in east Azerbaijan province. Also, according to the path analysis test, the most general effect on the implementation of spatial planning scheme for socio - cultural conditions with total effect size (0/305) and the institutional index is 0/206. Also, the lowest overall effect is related to the management and legal index with 0/054.
Land use Planning
Fariba Karami; Abolfazl Ghanbari; davod hasandost Farhani
Abstract
Introduction Passive defense refers to the set of actions that does not require application of war wares and with using it, we can prevent vital installations damage, sensitive military and nonmilitary centers, and human loses and to decrease the extent of damage or to minimize them. Literally, the ...
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Introduction Passive defense refers to the set of actions that does not require application of war wares and with using it, we can prevent vital installations damage, sensitive military and nonmilitary centers, and human loses and to decrease the extent of damage or to minimize them. Literally, the word defense is a combination of two terms in Persian language: “pad” and “afand”. In Persian literature, “pad” is a prefix meaning ant, counter, rear, and pursuit. “Afand” means war, fght, batle, and hostlityPassive defense is one of the basic measures in crisis management. It is possible that the passive defense decreases the losses as far as possible. In general It can be mentioned that passive defense includes a collection of unarmed actions which causes increasing of suppression, decreasing of vulnerability, continuity of vital activities , promotion of national stability and facility of crisis management against the threats and the enemy`s military actions. Passive defense, in addition to reducing damage from human-made hazards, is also used to reduce risks to natural hazards. Therefore, passive defense is not about war and peace but a preparation to deal with various natural disaster and abnormal events. Passive defense plans are developed before crisis, at the tme of peace, and include design for all steps of crisis management. Basic defnitons of passive defense may unwitngly focus one’s atenton on politcal and military defense issues, rather than events and crises caused by natural forces; however, the truth is that, in additon to reducing damage caused by human-made threats, passive defense measures in residential areas are also useful in reducing risks in face of natural hazard. An important issue in passive defense is selection of place. Site selection can be viewed as a Multiple Criteria Decision-Making or Multiple Attributes Decision-Making (MCDM/MADM) problems. The MCDM or MADM is the approach dealing with the ranking and selection of one or more sites from the alternatives. MCDM methods have been developed to assist decision makers in either ranking a known set of alternatives for a problem or making a choice among this set while considering the conflicting criteria. In recent years with the development of passive defense in the world, extensive studies were carried out in this area. In Iran, because of strategic and political importance of the Middle East region and due to its natural location and the confrontation with various types of natural disasters in Iran, studies on passive defense are necessary.The purpose of this research is to locate sites suitable for establishing sensitive and vital centers in Bojnourd Township. North Khorasan Province is one of the border provinces of Iran. Bojnourd township is a provincial capital because of the establishment of management and command centers, bordered by Turkmenistan and located on the international route of sensitive arteries and basic ways of the country. On the other hand, Bojnurd is geologically located in Kopet Dagh Zone. In this zone there are active and important faults. Methods In order to carry out the study, an applied research method and a ombinaton of documentary, descriptve, analytcal and case study methods were used.In this study, the research method is descriptive-analytic, and a FANP compilation model was used. Data was collected based on library studies and documentation reviews and the distribution of the questionnaire among experts .In this research, The natural and human criteria of the research, including the sub criteria of slope, direction of slope, elevation, vegetation, protected areas, lithology, distance from the fault, distance from the river, distance from industry, distance from the border, distance from the city, distance from the village, distance from the high power lines and distance from the roads were chosen. The questionnaire data was processed using the Super Decision software, based on the ANP model. Then, the coefficient of significance of each factor was multiplied by Arc GIS software with the desired layer. Ultimately, the fuzzy layers were fuzzy and maps were fused in the software. Results and Discussion The results of this study showed that the most suitable zones are the middle belt, east and south east of Bojnourd township. Unsuitable areas for the establishment of critical sites are located in the north, southwest and around the city of Bojnourd, with passive defense approach. Conclusion Based on the results of this zoning, Bojnourd city management centers such as the governor's office, the Radio and Television Organization, military centers, the main water pumping station, high voltage power plant and support centers such as wheat silos, industrial towns, etc. are not located in a suitable place.
Urban Planning
Abolfazl Ghanbari
Abstract
Introduction Explaining resilience to threats is an understanding of how social, economic, institutional, political and executive capacities are significant in improving the resilience and identifying different dimensions of resilience in human societies. On the one hand, the ...
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Introduction Explaining resilience to threats is an understanding of how social, economic, institutional, political and executive capacities are significant in improving the resilience and identifying different dimensions of resilience in human societies. On the one hand, the type of attitude to the topic of resilience and its way of analysis, plays a key role in determining how well the current situation is and its causes, and on the other hand, it can play a fundamental role in the implementation of risk reduction policies and measures." The relationship between vulnerability and resilience becomes necessary when the issue under consideration is considered from the perspective of environmental risk studies. Therefore, the main question for many researchers in this field is whether resilience is opposed to vulnerability. Or is resilience a factor in vulnerability? And does vulnerability in a simple definition refer to the ability to lose or not? (Cutter, 1996)." Vulnerability and resilience concepts provide valuable conceptual frameworks and models for understanding how communities and human systems cope with environmental and social change (Adger, 2006). In the present study, considering the importance of analyzing the relationship between vulnerability and resilience among global research and the level of research conducted in the country, we try to examine the situation of these two concepts by applying a quantitative approach in the eastern shore of Lake Urmia. In this study, the eastern region of t Lake Urmia, including 8 counties: Azarshahr, Osko, Bonab, Tabriz, Shabestar, Ajabshir, Maragheh and Malekan, were selected as a study area.The study area is one of the most important and sensitive areas in East Azarbaijan province, which has been the focus of population and various economic activities. In addition, the eastern shore of Lake Urmia has been affected by ecological changes in recent years. Given that the main purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive and integrated approach to determining the state of vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards and disasters, therefore, in the first step, the study area from the perspective of environmental threats and disasters. Naturally, the resilience capacity of the region has been examined in the form of political divisions of the village and at the level of rural settlements. Therefore, the fundamental question of the present study can be posed in such a way that what is the relationship between environmental vulnerability and the resilience capacity of the region within the eastern shores of Lake Urmia? Methodology The research methodology is descriptive-analytic and its purpose due to application in to the local planning and rural development system is applied. By doing literature review, an innovative approach was introduced by combining quantitative methods of index basis and GIS in explaining the relationship between environmental vulnerability and regional resilience. Accordingly, two innovative index including Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) and Regional Resilience Index (RRI) were implemented. For the vulnerability assessment 8 criteria and for the resilience assessment 19 criteria were chosen. Discussion and results In research aimed at analyzing resilience, the most important issue to consider is vulnerability analysis and recognizing the threats ahead in order to identify resilience capacity and capabilities. As stated in the sections of the first article, the approach of resilience in the field of management and planning, and especially in crisis management, is in the stages of its evolution and evolution. From this point of view, in terms of concept, operation and application, it has problems and weaknesses that have been explained in the theoretical foundations section. According to the findings of the study (Cutter, 1996), reproduction due to environmental hazards, as well as hazards, hazards and disasters in nature have a spatial and geographical nature in nature, so its study from this perspective will be useful and beneficial. Many studies such as Cutter et al., 2008; Cutter, Burton, & Emrich, 2010; Rose, 2007) have tried to provide quantitative analytical models and operational frameworks for improving and enhancing the resilience of communities using appropriate indicators. The most important distinguishing feature of previous studies in the field of regional resilience assessment with the present study can be considered in the lack of consideration of spatial-spatial dimensions and the multi-spectral criteria used. In the present study, by emphasizing the spatial dimensions and combining the quantitative approach of decision-making approach, an attempt was made to examine the relationship between the two concepts of environmental vulnerability and regional resilience. In the present study, according to this principle in planning and management for crisis occurrence, first the type of threats and environmental hazards in the study area were described Then, using 8 selected criteria, the vulnerability situation was analyzed due to environmental hazards. The results of this part of the study indicate that 27% of the study area is located on the highly vulnerable class. Where the whole area of Azarshahr and Ajabshir is covered and many areas of Osko, Shabestar and Tabriz are also in the process of being damaged. Recognizing the vulnerability of the study area, it should be acknowledged that the southern and southeastern regions are in good condition and are in low-vulnerability classes. However, in the process of resilience measurement, which initially included three indicators of social resilience, access to communication infrastructure and resilience of building strength, and finally, by merging the three mentioned layers, the overall regional resilience index was obtained. The results of this process show that 43% of the total area of the region is in the desired state of resilience and 27% have less resilience to environmental hazards in the study area. The eastern shore of Lake Urmia is one of the equipped axes and development of large population centers in the province of East Azerbaijan and is also a bridge between other regions in the northwest of the country. Therefore, its vulnerability disrupts other regional functions as well. Therefore, the essence of the findings of this study is that this range is exposed to damage caused by environmental hazards. So that the drying of Lake Urmia affects the functions of human settlements in this region and if this trend continues, it will have irreparable effects on the environmental and human structures of this region. In addition, with the possibility of an earthquake in this area, one of the vulnerable areas of Tabriz metropolis and the surrounding rural settlements will be. Therefore, in order to prepare in advance, the resilience of local communities at the level of rural settlements is felt more than ever. Also, the study area, especially in the marginal areas of Lake Urmia in the cities of Azarshahr and Ajabshir against the dangers of floods is seriously vulnerable. Conclusion The results showed that 62% of the study area was in high vulnerability, with its spatial distribution pattern mainly in the center of the region and within the administrative limits of counties like: Azarshahr, Ajabshir and Osko. In contrast, 43% of the area has a high capacity of resiliency and 27% of the total area is in a low resilient situation. In addition, a total of 168 rural areas have been recognized in identified areas with a low resilience capacity.
Urban Planning
Zahra Torkhamanei; MohammadHasan Yazdani; Abolfaz Ganbarei
Volume 23, Issue 70 , March 2020, , Pages 207-266
Abstract
The aim of this research is to investigate the spatial structure of Tabriz Metropolis based on functional nuclei. The research method is descriptive-analytic research of causal-correlation type. Data collection was done in a library method. Data includes urban activities that are extracted ...
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The aim of this research is to investigate the spatial structure of Tabriz Metropolis based on functional nuclei. The research method is descriptive-analytic research of causal-correlation type. Data collection was done in a library method. Data includes urban activities that are extracted from the census. The number of activity indicators is 25, which is classified in five main industrial, commercial, administrative, financial, service and recreational categories. And these are considered as metropolis functional nuclei. To analyze the distribution of functional nuclei from the kernel density estimation method, for analyzing spatial patterns from the mean center and the elliptic of the standard deviation, spatial correlation modeling of geographical weight regression and least squares regression have been used. The results of the research show that the spatial patterns of the functional nuclei are single-core. Tabriz is still far away from the formation of a multi-core metropolis and core subsidiary have not yet succeeded in attracting their activities and population. Spatial correlation results also show that there is a positive relationship between functional nuclei and population distribution and strengthening functional nuclei will focus the population, especially in the city center.
Urban Planning
Abolfazl Ganbaei
Volume 23, Issue 68 , September 2019, , Pages 219-244
Abstract
One of the major issues of population in the world is generally the problem of the aging population and the consequences of it. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate the city of Tabriz based on favorable city indicators of the elderly (such as housing, social participation, respect and social ...
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One of the major issues of population in the world is generally the problem of the aging population and the consequences of it. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate the city of Tabriz based on favorable city indicators of the elderly (such as housing, social participation, respect and social support and health services). The methodology of this research is descriptive-analytical of the applied type and the method of collecting data and documentary and survey data. A questionnaire was used to collect data. The statistical population includes all 60 years old and older elderly people based on the general population census and housing in 1390 in the regions 1 and 10 of Tabriz Municipality. Using the Cochran formula, the sample size for area 1, 138 and for area 10, 138 it is achieved. Then, using the available sampling method, distributed among the regions 1 and 10 of Tabriz Municipality. Statistical analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) have been used in data analysis. The results of the study indicate that the average housing situation, the rate of social participation, social support and health services among the elderly were moderate to low And the average respect index among the elderly is moderate and the level of each of the desirable city indicators of the elderly, except for the housing index, does not differ significantly in terms of housing type and residence area of respondents. Also, the effect of social support and health services on respect is equal to (0.44), the effectiveness of civic participation on respect is equal to (0.23) and the effectiveness of social participation on respect is equal to (0.17). Regarding the coefficient of explanation, we conclude that three variables (housing, social support and health services and social participation) explain a total of 0.82 of the variance of the variable of respect, and another 18.1% is related to factors other than existing variables.
Urban Planning
Abolfazl Ganbari
Volume 22, Issue 65 , November 2018, , Pages 243-265
Abstract
"Today, one of the most important destinations that are considered in tourism is the towns and villages which are a form of development of tourism in the various dimensions of nature tourism, cultural tourism and special tourism in these areas, and these destinations, unlike ...
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"Today, one of the most important destinations that are considered in tourism is the towns and villages which are a form of development of tourism in the various dimensions of nature tourism, cultural tourism and special tourism in these areas, and these destinations, unlike other natural tourism destinations Of the human population and this fact doubles the importance of the capacity of the tourism board (Hall et al., 1998: 327).”Therefore, it should be noted that in these areas, if tourism does not move in line with sustainable development goals and programs, a form of tourism development will occur in these areas, which will lead to destruction of the natural and human environments of these cities and decrease the capacity of the ward these points (Garrigo et al., 2004: 21). Nowadays, due to the complexity of the nature of cities and the vast economic, social and political networks that govern it, urban tourism faces major challenges (Haiydari Chianeh, 2008). Hence, the carrying capacity of the board for the whole environment, whether natural or abnormal, is to a certain degree of loading or level of use. Passing through this level and threshold will lead to destruction and damage in different scales and will reduce the level of satisfaction of the visitors (Makhdoum, 1998; Makhdoum, 1373, Hovinen, 1982; Chamberlain, 1997; Clark, 1997; Buckley, 1999). The nature of the region and the quality of the environment play a very important role in promoting the tourism product, and most tourism destinations have realized that competition in sustainable tourism is unimportant (Garrigo, 2004). Butler In 1993 defined sustainable tourism as a type of tourism that could continue in an environment indefinitely which can continue in an environment of unlimited duration and do not harm the environment in a humane and natural way and to the extent that it does not harm the development of other activities and social processes. The determine the carrying capacity for all recreational resources (both human and natural) not only upholding their potential, especially in natural areas, but also an important factor in providing a recreational experience for visitors is acceptable. "The determination of the capacity of the battle requires the analysis of each area and activity intended to identify and determine the levels of use that are available to the host society and recreational areas and visitors to a relatively good and enforceable level. Generally, the capacity of the board is determined by a variety of recreational activities, ecological characteristics and socio-economic impacts (Nohorli and Rezaei, 2002: 103). The estimated carrying capacity dynamic process and using feedback to deliver integrated strain in the ecosystem works (Worboys et al., 2005). With an overview of the study area, the Kalibar seen, given the growing trend towards receive tourists, acceptance and tourists, regardless of the carrying capacity of the area and the minimum measures to control tourists to the area thought not. If the necessary measures are not taken into account, considering the different socioeconomic and ecological conditions of the area and the determination of the resources available for optimal utilization, one should expect the destruction of this area as soon as possible.
