Rural Planning
somayeh azizi; farhad azizpour; Vahid Riahi; Seyed Amirhossein Garakani; Sajad Amiri
Abstract
Objective: Rural settlements located around cities are continuously changing and transforming from inside and outside under the influence of numerous factors (structures) and forces (mechanisms). In the traditional planning of spaces. especially villages, the future constructive forces are mainly considered ...
Read More
Objective: Rural settlements located around cities are continuously changing and transforming from inside and outside under the influence of numerous factors (structures) and forces (mechanisms). In the traditional planning of spaces. especially villages, the future constructive forces are mainly considered the past constructive forces, and future changes and events are not considered much. However, the driving forces that create the future are sometimes accompanied by uncertainty and can affect the future of the phenomenon under investigation. The current research, with a foresight approach, has set its goal to know the future of the rural settlements of Shahriar Area.
Methods: The study is based on the purpose, applied and analytical-exploratory in nature. The research methodology is of a mixed type (with qualitative-quantitative design). In the qualitative part, semi-structured observation and interview were used to identify factors and driving forces and uncertainties, and in the quantitative part, Delphi questionnaire was used to prioritize and score the driving forces.
Results: Based on the findings, the low institutional capacity, power rent in the policy and planning system, the development of industrial economy, the growth of land speculation, the demographic backwardness of the metropolis of Tehran and the spatial proximity to the metropolis among 18 factors were identified as the main drivers affecting the future of the villages around the cities. According to 12 possible modes of propulsion, three scenarios of stable spatial development, fragile spatial development and unstable spatial development were presented as possible scenarios.
Conclusions: Each of these three scenarios is believable and each has the potential to be realized; But which one happens depends on today's schedule.In the field of domestic and foreign literature, few studies have been conducted on scenario planning, especially in the area of villages around metropolises, with a foresight approach. In addition to the few available resources,
Rural Planning
Aghil Khaleghi; Mohammadreza Pourmohammadi
Abstract
Local planning of rural settlements is an inevitable issue and requires foresight and the development of appropriate development policies in this area. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature and data collection is descriptive-analytical and based on the nature of data ...
Read More
Local planning of rural settlements is an inevitable issue and requires foresight and the development of appropriate development policies in this area. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature and data collection is descriptive-analytical and based on the nature of data is mixed and in terms of time is futuristic. The sample size of the present study consists of 30 panels of respondents. MICMAC method has been used for futurism and processing of interaction matrices. Local development plans, include "rural guide plans, rural areas reorganization plan, scattered village integration plan, improvement plan, reorganization plan and protection of valuable villages, development plan and Rural development is a plan for the sustainable development of rural systems and a program for the economic development and job creation of rural areas. Due to the importance of local development projects in the geographical space of rural settlements in East Azerbaijan province have been more or less effective, which include the scope of research. 22 influential variables and finally 7 key drivers: "Creating a single and clear management system for the villages, Local potential in planning, sectoral and local plans, stakeholder participation, resource self-sufficiency in a system, the role of middle cities in local rural development and finally the appropriate implementation model" in local planning of rural settlements were identified. "Creating a single and clear management system for the villages" is in the first place of direct and indirect impact and is of great importance.
Urban Planning
amir pourdadash; akbar Asghari Zamani; Iraj Teymuri
Abstract
Considering the challenges ahead in the way and type of management of free zones, including non-democratic management structure, unstable income, achieve a bright future for the Aras Free Zone, it is necessary to identify and outline the key drivers. The current research, with the perspective of future ...
Read More
Considering the challenges ahead in the way and type of management of free zones, including non-democratic management structure, unstable income, achieve a bright future for the Aras Free Zone, it is necessary to identify and outline the key drivers. The current research, with the perspective of future research, tries to identify the vital factors affecting the state of good governance in Aras Free Zone and investigate the effect of these factors on each other. This research, in terms of practical purpose and from library methods, survey, its nature is based on new methods in future research with an analytical and exploratory approach, using quantitative and qualitative models and analysis methods and structural cross-effects, such as Micmac and Delphi method. has benefited Based on this, during numerous discussion sessions and opinion gathering of experts and expert group of Aras Free Zone, 15 people as a statistical sample of the target population, 60 items or variables were identified in the form of 8 main indicators of good urban governance. Then, the above variables were weighted in the form of a 60x60 matrix of cross-effects by the elite group and defined in the Mic Mac software. What can be understood from the state of the dispersion map of the variables is the instability of the system. Therefore, according to the ranking of the direct and indirect effects of the variables and their scoring, the number of 21 variables that had more weight in both cases were identified as the main drivers of good urban governance in the free zone. Among the variables, citizens' and officials' trust in each other has the highest score and the most vital factor affecting good urban governance in Aras Free Zone, and administrators' adherence to the law, strategic vision, and social justice are ranked in the next ranks.
Urban Planning
Hadi Hakimi; hadi naghibi; akbar Asghari Zamani; feridoun babaii aghdm
Abstract
Today, the speed of urban development has exceeded the capacity and ability of governments to expand infrastructure and provide services and create employment, as a result, the phenomenon of informal settlement has spread rapidly and irregularly. Statistics show that a population of metropolises and ...
Read More
Today, the speed of urban development has exceeded the capacity and ability of governments to expand infrastructure and provide services and create employment, as a result, the phenomenon of informal settlement has spread rapidly and irregularly. Statistics show that a population of metropolises and even many medium-sized cities have settled in disorderly habitats and on the outskirts of cities, which constitute the poorest groups of the urban population, this shows the necessity of efforts to create better conditions in these settlements. . Today, one of the new ways to analyze the current and upcoming challenges is to use the foresight approach and look at the present from the future. Due to the rapid growth of the population and migration during the past decades, the city of Khoy has not been able to provide suitable conditions for the settlement of a part of the population. For this reason, the population that moved to the city of Khoy was forced to live on the outskirts of the city and created a phenomenon called informal settlements. This research was written with the aim of identifying the influencing factors on the expansion of informal settlements in Khoy city. For this purpose, the Delphi method was used to identify the influential factors, and the result was the identification of 72 factors in 6 different areas, then the mutual effects analysis method was used to extract the key influential factors, and as a result, out of the total of 72 factors, 26 Factors were identified as key factors.
Urban Planning
Hassan Mahmoudzadeh; Abolfazl Naeemi Peyvasti; Hasan Masoudi
Abstract
Introduction At present, the growth of the urban population of the world is faster than the world's largest, with more than half of the population living in urban areas. This fact has created many environmental and socio-economic problems on a large scale, especially in developing countries. Therefore, ...
Read More
Introduction At present, the growth of the urban population of the world is faster than the world's largest, with more than half of the population living in urban areas. This fact has created many environmental and socio-economic problems on a large scale, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the high urbanization rate and the lack of urban infrastructure on the one hand, and the reduction of land with environmentally valuable land in the cities, on the other hand, reveals the need for a review of the process of change and the prediction of the expansion of cities in the coming years. Foresight science is an interdisciplinary knowledge that, in addition to analysing the trends of the past, has been able to discover, invent, and evaluate possible, probable and desirable future, and transformed the dispersed and inconsistent literature on planning for the future into scientifically codified with solid principles. In this regard, environmental futures research is a process of systematic and accountable effort to address the long-term future with the aim of identifying strategic research areas and the emergence of inclusive environmental technologies, which, while embracing the economic and social benefits of citizens, also minimize the potential for potential losses. Urban environment and provide favourable environmental scenarios, taking into account sustainable development patterns. This research has been designed with the aim of identifying the development indicators of the city of Sardrood including social, economic and environmental dimensions and defining the directions of the city development. During this process, the environmental consequences of its development will be explored with the future-oriented and futuristic approach in the event of its accession to the metropolis of Tabriz. Methods and material This research is based on the objective, applied and descriptive-analytical method. Initially, the required data and indices were prepared using library questionnaires and social, economic and environmental indicators. Then, in the MICMAC software designed for structural analysis, the impact of the indicators produced on each other and on the growth and development of the city was studied. Then, with the Scenario wizard software, the scenarios needed for key factors and driving force behind the development of the city were presented. Results and Discussion The initial variables affecting the future of the system were collected and analyzed using the Delphi technique, and finally, 59 variables were extracted in different dimensions. In order to analyze the effective variables, the structural analysis method was used using MICMAC software and the experts. The distribution of variables indicates that the system is unstable. The direct and indirect effects of variables on each other and on the future of the system were examined by experts and finally, 13 effective factors were obtained from a total of 59 primary factors. In this study, "the type of attitude in the annexation of the city of Sardrood to the metropolis of Tabriz" was identified as the most influential factor. In the final part of the study, a scenario was performed and for each of the key factors, the probable situations were identified. A total of 53 statuses were compiled and to examine the effect of each of the probable situations on other situations, the questionnaires were provided to the experts and entered into the scenario software for analysis of the results. Finally, there were three strong, more likely to occur scenarios, 9,999 poor scenarios, and 13 reasonable and believable scenarios by considering incredible scenarios, there are 169 statuses for them, of which only 24 are highly desirable and 44 are in a desirable process and the rest of the state is static, undesirable, or critical, which does not represent a desirable future for the future of the system. Conclusion This research was carried out with the aim of evaluating the environmental consequences of the development of the city of Sardasht and its annexation to Tabriz's capital city. In the first step, by using the questionnaire tool, 59 factors were identified and evaluated by the experts on the future of the system in various dimensions and entered into the software to determine the key factors. Since the system software was identified as unstable, variables were classified into five general categories, which eventually identified 13 indicators out of 59 indicators as the main factors. In the following, 53 potential scenarios were designed for key factors that indicate the future of key factors. Then, to assess the impact and scenarios of these situations, they were compared through a questionnaire and their results were analyzed using the Wizard scenario software. The software provided 9,999 weak, 13 credible scenarios, and three strong scenarios. For credible scenarios, the status of the future of the ruling system is 169, of which 68 are favorable and 101 are unfavorable. Consequently, even in the case of favorable scenarios, the optimal future for the system is not expected.
Urban Planning
Mohammad Reza Pourmohammadi; Freydon Babai Aghdam; Kiomars Naimi
Abstract
Introduction Almost half of the world's population lives in cities. According to the report (UN-HABITAT) Urban areas in the next 30 years, They will be the most important centers of world population growth and with this increase in population, Planners and governments of developing countries They face ...
Read More
Introduction Almost half of the world's population lives in cities. According to the report (UN-HABITAT) Urban areas in the next 30 years, They will be the most important centers of world population growth and with this increase in population, Planners and governments of developing countries They face the challenge of high poverty growth rates. However, The manifestation of poverty that was once more characteristic of rural areas, Today it has become more and more urban. One of the main consequences of increasing poverty in cities and urbanization of poverty, housing shortage and the increasing formation of lower urban settlements, The population of these settlements for 2020 is estimated at 889 million people Lower urban settlements or what is commonly called "informal housing". It is one of the problems facing today's cities, especially at the local level. After years of remediation trials, it is still the lower urban settlements They are a fundamental challenge for cities. In dealing with the phenomenon of spontaneous and inferior urban settlements Various approaches and programs have been used That experience has shown That physical dominance approach and without addressing the needs, wants and priorities of the local community and weak participation of local communities and the absence of stakeholders in the planning and implementation process, Many things have become inefficient.in this study using the intellectual base of foresight, In order to explain the plan The new approach foresight in this area, To discuss and review identify key factors, The amount and How Effectiveness And explain These conditions possible And finally formulate possible scenarios and identify optimal scenarios affecting the future status of urban slums in Sanandaj. Methodology This research is fundamental-applied in terms of purpose and it is descriptive-analytical in nature based on new methods of futures research. Library-field method, questionnaire and environmental scanning technique were used to collect information.The questionnaires were completed through a group of experts and experts in the field of housing planning and development. In order to conduct research, various futures research techniques are used, including environmental scanning, interaction / structural impact analysis and scenario writing. Has provided a comprehensive combination in presenting a new method of urban studies foresight. Also from specialized futures research software such as MICMAC and SCENARIOWIZARD For the first time in urban studies with emphasis on planning studies of lower urban settlements, has been used in this study. Which is one of the key features of this research. Results and discussion Finally results reveal that, 54 operating in 6 areas by environmental scanning, affecting the future status Urban Slums and inner city and eventually identified 54 of these after the review and how these factors impact on each other and on the future status Residences No. 12, which had the key to the future status of Urban Slums and inner city plays were selected by defining the conditions of each factor in the future progress of these residents may be the number 45 has been designed. By 45 × 45 matrix based on scripting and using the knowledge of experts in the relevant fields to assess the efficacy of each of the states on the occurrence or non-occurrence of other states, using the software SCENARIOWIZARD, 3 strong scenarios, 14 High compatible scenarios(unbelievable) and 250 weak scenarios were detected that this study to analyzes 14 High compatible scenarios. The collection After the conclusion of three scenarios were presented. Conclusion The first scenario as the most likely scenario is not of High desirability The further continuation of the status quo With slow growth And interstitial Is. The second scenario as the most favorable scenario Which reflects better conditions And optimistic with the gradual growth Is to improve And The third likely scenario is more indicative of interstitial and static situations and crisis. Finally for Recreation of Sustainability Should be targeting And formulate effective policies Trying that favorable conditions in the scenarios will be realized in the future And the adverse and critical situations to be taken. Hence a number of general strategies are presented: - Focus on key drivers affecting the future status of Sanandaj lower urban settlements and efforts to better manage them - Having a strong program-oriented macro-country management and also having a dynamic economy in the country - Implementing policies in rural areas and small towns to control migration to the city of Sanandaj and create population stability in the province - Efforts to control land and housing prices as well as formulate policies to provide efficient housing - Strict supervision of land around the city and management during construction on the outskirts of the city - Efforts to increase the influence of local institutions and increase institutional trust - Efforts to improve the environmental status of these settlements by the city administration - Efforts to raise the level of literacy of the people and encourage the formation of new reference groups
