Climatology
Paria Saadatjoo; Ali Alizadeh; Saeed jahanbakhsh; Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust; Behrooz Sari Sarraf
Abstract
This article investigates the impact of climate change on energy consumption in residential buildings across various Iranian cities over the next 70 years.
To achieve this, climatic data for Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Mashhad, and Kermanshah were generated using Meteonorm 8 software based on existing ten-year ...
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This article investigates the impact of climate change on energy consumption in residential buildings across various Iranian cities over the next 70 years.
To achieve this, climatic data for Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Mashhad, and Kermanshah were generated using Meteonorm 8 software based on existing ten-year climatic data. Following the identification of prevalent residential building types in Iran, a representative sample was selected, and energy simulations were conducted using Design Builder 7.0.0.096 software for the years 2030, 2060, and 2090 in the aforementioned cities.
The results indicated a projected increase in cooling energy demand across all cities in the coming years. Tehran exhibited the most significant changes in annual heating energy, with a projected decrease of 37% in 2060 and 66.64% in 2090 compared to 2030. Tabriz experienced the largest annual increase in cooling energy, with a rise of 37.53% in the first three decades and 75.43% in the subsequent three decades. Overall, projected annual cooling energy changes ranged from 21.36% to 37.53% by 2060 and 44.14% to 75.43% by 2090 across these cities.
Tabriz had the highest annual energy consumption, while Kermanshah had the lowest. Additionally, Tabriz exhibited the highest heating energy consumption, whereas Tehran had the highest cooling energy demand annually. Regarding carbon dioxide emissions, Tehran recorded the highest levels during 2030, 2060, and 2090, with Isfahan showing the most substantial increase in emissions over the seventy-year period. Statistical analyses revealed a significant relationship between temperature changes and time across all cities. However, no significant relationship was found between time and energy consumption or carbon dioxide emissions in these cities. In conclusion, this study highlights the anticipated changes in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in residential buildings across Iranian cities due to climate change.
Climatology
Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust; Mustafa Tahani Yazdali; farahnaz khoramabadi; Aazam Samadi; Farideh Ansari Maleki; Mohammad Hossein Pourghorban
Abstract
Problems caused by climate change are one of the most important environmental crises and threats of human society, especially in urban environments. In the city of Tabriz and in recent years, due to the growth of the population, a lot of migration from other cities, traffic, the development of industries ...
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Problems caused by climate change are one of the most important environmental crises and threats of human society, especially in urban environments. In the city of Tabriz and in recent years, due to the growth of the population, a lot of migration from other cities, traffic, the development of industries and production centers have caused an increase in the production and distribution of pollutants. Based on this, in this research, attention has been paid to the evaluation of the quality of dust occurrence in the years 2019 and 2018. The concentration of dust particles in different areas of the studied places varies depending on the geographical location, topographical, climatic conditions and also their origin, both internal and external. Based on the results obtained from the analysis of laboratory results and field studies, in the Tabriz region and during the research period, the concentration of lead metal in dust is moderate for adults and severe for children, and the risk of mercury metal for both the elderly and children. It has been intense. The adverse effects of cadmium metal have been very severe in children and adults. On the other hand, the high air temperature in the city center and the formation of thermal islands in it causes local winds from the suburbs to the city center. With the transfer of pollution from the suburbs to the city center by these winds, the pollution situation in the city center also increases.
Climatology
Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust; saeed jahanbakhshasl; zahra abbasighasrik; fatemeh abbasighasrik
Abstract
Today, long-term forecasting of climate variables has received much attention in order to be aware of the extent of change and, consequently, to take the necessary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. In this study, minimum temperatures in Kurdistan province were predicted using ...
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Today, long-term forecasting of climate variables has received much attention in order to be aware of the extent of change and, consequently, to take the necessary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. In this study, minimum temperatures in Kurdistan province were predicted using LARS-WG6 downscaling for the next three 20-year periods (2040-2021, 2060-2041, 2080-2061). For this purpose, the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and three scenarios of RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 were used. To generate the time series of future periods, daily data for the statistical period 1989-2019 were used and the trend of its changes was analyzed using Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that LARS-WG6 software simulates the minimum values of the minimum temperature well with low error indicators. Also, based on the results of the HadGM2-ES global model output in the study area, the minimum temperature in the future period will be higher than the base period in all scenarios and periods. The intensity of this increase under the RCP8.5 scenario is related to the last period of the century (2080-2061) and its lesser extent is related to the period (2060-2041) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Examination of seasonal averages also shows that spring has a lower temperature increase and autumn has a higher temperature increase. The trend of changes shows that the trend is positive and negative in both directions, so that in most stations and scenarios in different forecast periods, spring will have the most positive trend and autumn will have the most negative trend. Therefore, it can be concluded that the temperature will increase in future periods and the effect of cold waves will decrease.
Yousef Zarei; Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust; Majid Rezaeebanafshe; Hashem Rostamzadeh
Abstract
Climate change is one of the main problems on Earth today, so predicting these changes in the future and their impacts on water resources, the natural environment, agriculture, and environmental, economic and social impacts is of particular importance. Therefore, in the present study, the effects of ...
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Climate change is one of the main problems on Earth today, so predicting these changes in the future and their impacts on water resources, the natural environment, agriculture, and environmental, economic and social impacts is of particular importance. Therefore, in the present study, the effects of global climate change on different climatic regions of the country were studied in 12 climatic regions. In this study, NCEP data and climatic elements of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature were used for statistical downscaling with SDSM model. And using the CanEMS2 model output under RCP scenarios for the three statistical periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099 annual climate change data were obtained. Correlation coefficient, determination coefficient and error indexes of RMSE, MSE and MAD were used to evaluate the performance of the model. However, the results showed that the accuracy of the model was different at different stations. In this way, each model performs better than rainfall in simulating minimum and maximum temperatures. The annual long-run results also show that precipitation will decrease in all climates studied in the coming decades, with the largest decrease occurring in semi-warm (35%) and very humid and temperate (32%) desert areas. But minimum and maximum temperature variations will be different in different climatic regions so that under RCP scenarios during all statistical periods at Sabzevar and Tabas stations minimum temperature changes will decrease but in other climatic regions the trend of minimum and maximum temperatures will be incremental. The highest minimum and maximum temperature increases based on RCP scenarios under RCP8.5 scenario during the period 2071-2099 in the cold mountain climatic region will be 3.03, 4.27 ° C, respectively.
Land use Planning
Rahimeh Rostami; Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust; Maedeh Bakuoyi
Abstract
IntroductionDrying up of Urmia Lake has great influence on the surrounding environment. The salinity of the soil on the edge of the lake, the increase of salt particles and the reduction of the usual agriculture in this area are among the effects of this drought. With proper planning and extensive studies, ...
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IntroductionDrying up of Urmia Lake has great influence on the surrounding environment. The salinity of the soil on the edge of the lake, the increase of salt particles and the reduction of the usual agriculture in this area are among the effects of this drought. With proper planning and extensive studies, it is possible to turn the created deficiencies into opportunities and take maximum advantage of them. One of the parameters that can be checked using satellite data is soil salinity. Soil salinity is the accumulation of dissolved salts in the form of electrical conductivity, and it can be measured. In this study, the changes in land use and vegetation from 2000 to 2016 have been investigated using Landsat 5 and 8 images. The analysis of the images has been done using object-oriented methods, and the soil salinity has been calculated using salinity indices and during the studied years. Soil salinity index as well as other indices such as plant indices has been used in the classification and examination of changes. Land use changes were obtained by object-oriented method in Ecognation software and calculations related to the amount of changes is done using Arc map and Idrisi software. The study was carried out on 4 periods of 2000, 2006, 2010 and 2016. The images related to each year are first classified into 9 classes of water, salt marsh, new salt, pastures and weak pastures, city, agriculture, barren land and garden by object-oriented method. After classification, the amount of changes during these years has been obtained.Data and methodsMost of the study area is located in pass 168 and row 34, and only parts of the lake in the northwestern part of the study area are outside this image, so to get the desired result, we have to mosaic the images of passes 168 and 169 with rows 33 and 34. Processing is divided into three stages: pre-processing, processing and post-processing.Segmentation is the first step in processing images in object-oriented methods. Segmentation is the integration of objects from small to large based on the parameters of color, shape, density, smoothness and scale. In this study for processing have used from ecognation Software. The method used to classify images is the thresholding method. In order to improve the classification method, salinity indices and vegetation indices have used in this study.ConclusionThe amount of water in the lake has decreased drastically between 2000 and 2016, and it has decreased from 54.39% range to 29.26%. By examining the changes, it can be seen that other land uses have been reduced, and salt marshes have been added. The comparison of land uses from 2000 to 2016 shows that the amount of salt marshes has increased from 12.37% in 2000 to 13.84% in 2006, 24.7% in 2010 and 33.25% in 2016. Studies show that the intensity of changes in the amount of water and salinity between the years 2006 to 2010 and 2010 to 2016 is much more intense than the period 2000 to 2006. It seems that before 2006, unprincipled exploitation of lake water and underground water was less than after 2006, or the environment had the ability to recover the amount of water harvested. As it can be seen from the map of 2000, the amount of new or wet salt around the lake is very small, which has increased with the decrease of the lake's water. The survey of gardens in the studied area shows that the area occupied by gardens has increased from 2000 to 2010, but the results of changes in use from 2010 to 2016 show that the area of gardens has almost halved (1099 pixels from the image in 2010 And 667 pixels in 2016) that one of the factors of this reduction can be soil salinity.Another thing that can be seen by studying the maps is the distribution of new salt in the areas far away from the lake, which at first was only attached to the water at the edge, but over time, when the amount of this type of salt increased, due to the occurrence of salt storms, it was spread to further areas. If measures are not taken to control this amount of salt and soil salinity that has occurred after that and will increase over time, we will witness more severe problems in the region.
Climatology
Mohammad Hossein Aalinejad; Saeed jahanbakhsh; Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust
Abstract
Introduction
Determining the temporal change of snowmelt or agriculture water equivalent of snow, predicting flood, and managing the reservoirs of a region is of utmost importance. Some major parts of the western sections of the country are located in the mountainous region and most of the precipitations ...
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Introduction
Determining the temporal change of snowmelt or agriculture water equivalent of snow, predicting flood, and managing the reservoirs of a region is of utmost importance. Some major parts of the western sections of the country are located in the mountainous region and most of the precipitations of this region occur in the form of snow in winter. The runoff resulting from snowmelt has an important role in feeding the rivers of this region and it has a significant share in developing agriculture and the economy.
Scientific studies have shown that climate change phenomena have significant effects on precipitations, evaporation, perspiration, runoff, and finally water supply. As the demand increases, climate changes, greatness, frequency, and the damage resulting from extreme weather events, as well as the costs of having access to water increase, as well. Therefore, evaluating the runoff resulting from snowmelt and the effect of climate change seems necessary for managing water resources.
Methodology
Gamasiab basin is located in the northeast part of the Karkheh basin originating from the springs in the vicinity of Nahavand. Its basin has an area almost equal to 11040 square kilometers that have been located in the east part having 47 degrees and 7 minutes to 49 degrees and 10 minutes geographical longitude and from the north part, it has 33 degrees and 48 minutes to 34 degrees and 54 minutes geographical latitude. This basin has an altitude between 1275 to 3680 meters.
In this study, snow-related data required for simulation were derived from the daily images of the MODIS sensor. To this end, first, the snow-covered area of the Gamasiab basin was measured during the 2016-2017 water years using the process of satellite images obtained from the MODIS sensor in the google earth engine system. All geometric justifications and calibration processes of images were applied precisely in the mentioned system. In the next step, the output of the GCM model scenarios was utilized for calculating temperature and precipitation changes in future periods. These CMIP5 kind models were under the control of two RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios and were downscaled with LARS-WG statistical model.
Moreover, to investigate the uncertainty of models and scenarios, the best models and scenarios were selected for producing temperature and precipitation data of future periods; accordingly, the outputs of the models for future periods (2021-2040) having the basis period of (1980-2010) were compared using statistical indexes of coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results were entered into the SRM model as the inputs. In addition, temperature and precipitation data of meteorological station of the studied region as well as the daily discharge of the river flow of hydrometric station of Chehr Bridge (as located in the output part of Gamasiab basin) were used during the statistical period of October 2016 to May 2018.
Discussion
Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the region and the appendage of Hec-GeoHMS in GIS software, firstly, flow direction map, flow accumulation map, and stream maps were drawn and the output point (hydrometric station of Chehr Bridge) was introduced to the border program of the identified basin and the basin was classified based on the three elevation regions.
Producing temperature and precipitation data of future periods requires a long-term statistical period; accordingly, the meteorological station of Kermanshahd was selected since it was in the vicinity of the studied region. To be confident in the ability of the model in producing data in future periods, the calculated data had to be compared with the observed model and data in the studied stations. The capabilities of the LARS-WG model in modeling the mentioned parameters of this station confirmed the observed data. Moreover, the ability of the model in modeling precipitation was very good and acceptable; however, the most modeling error was related to the precipitation in Mars.
In the next phase and compared to the basic periods, the mean of changes in average precipitation and temperature was measured in the studied stations during January and Juan of 2015 to 2017(for which simulation had occurred); as an index of changing the climate, this was entered into the SRM model under climate change conditions. During the simulation period (January to Juan), it had been predicted that the precipitation parameter would decrease and the temperature parameter would increase.
Conclusion
The results of this study indicated that using the MODIS sensor could provide an acceptable estimation of the snow cover level of the Gamasiab basin, which lacked snow gauge data. Moreover, the results of simulation with the SRM model showed that the model could simulate the snow runoff in the studied region. As the main purpose of the study, the effect of temperature and precipitation in future periods was well stated considering the uncertainty of CMP15 series models and scenarios. The results of temperature changes indicated an average increase of 1.8 C. the results of precipitation also indicated an average decrease of more than 5%. However, decreasing precipitation in the cold months of the years had been predicted severely so that the reduction of precipitation in February was of utmost importance for feeding the snow cover and rivers, which had been estimated to be 20%. This happened while increasing precipitation was mainly related to the hot months of the year whose amount was insignificant and didn`t have that much effect on the runoff. Accordingly, due to the increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation in cold seasons, the results of runoff simulation have indicated a 24% reduction for 2016-2017 and a 29% reduction for 2017-2018 water years.
Climatology
Ali Ghasemi Beqtash; Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust; Khalil Valizadeh Kamran
Abstract
Introduction Today, there are many factors involved in air pollution. PM10 is one of the significant elements influencing air pollution in the city. Due to their fineness, these particles can travel to high altitudes and long distances. The metropolis of Tabriz is known as one of the polluted cities ...
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Introduction Today, there are many factors involved in air pollution. PM10 is one of the significant elements influencing air pollution in the city. Due to their fineness, these particles can travel to high altitudes and long distances. The metropolis of Tabriz is known as one of the polluted cities whose air pollution is caused by burning a huge amount of fossil fuels, lack of green space and topographic and climatic conditions. Given that the purpose of synoptic studies is to explain the key interactions between the atmosphere and the surface environment, and synoptic climatology pursues a major goal and that is to find the relationship between atmospheric circulation and the surface environment. Given the importance of the phenomenon of dusty air pollution and on the other hand its widespread spatial expansion in recent years in the northwest, the need for this research was felt more than ever; Therefore, in this study, suspended particles in the atmosphere have been analyzed as one of the most important air pollutants in Tabriz Materials and Methods In order to investigate the effect of active pressure patterns on pollution in Tabriz metropolis, the synoptic analysis method was used. In order to influence the meteorological conditions on increasing and decreasing pollution, pressure gauging meters have been used in connection with the main PM10 pollutant. To achieve this goal, the average daily data of PM10 in the years 1992-2010 in Bagh Shomal station and meteorological data of Hamidid station in Tabriz have been used. The method was as follows: the data were first entered into Excel software and based on the standard table of air quality, the standard limit of pollutants was determined. Extreme contaminated days were filtered and extracted by Excel. Polluted days with dangerous conditions on March 15-16, 2009 and to May 6 the same year. Then using the surface pressure data, the level of 500 hPa of pressure patterns on the infected far days were analyzed. The study of air quality index showed that the highest number of polluted days occurred in 2008 and the lowest number of dangerous polluted days occurred in 2006. In addition, the highest number of dangerous polluted days occurred in March, May, April and June. The results of the study of synoptic patterns show the existence of a weak pressure cells at the level of 500 and the dominance of a strong low pressure system at ground level and the distribution of temperature along with the hot core over the region. Also, the effect of the condition of the upper levels of atmosphere on the contaminated days by drawing synoptic maps of 500 hPa on the polluted days were examined. The Lund correlation method was used to select the representative days of the groups obtained from the classification of atmospheric pressure data. In this way, to select the representative day, the day that has the most similarity with the most number of group days was selected. Findings and Discussion The correlation coefficient represents the degree of similarity of the patterns of the two maps with each other. To do this, a certain threshold correlation coefficient must be accepted. The value of correlation coefficient in such cases typically varies between 0.5 to 0.7. Representative days were extracted based on a threshold of 0.5. Thus, the day that has a correlation coefficient of 0.5 with more days was selected as the representative day. The 500 hPa pattern, which has changed the climate of Northwestern Iran, is a Rex-type blocking system. Such a system is called lateral lifting Rex. After re-combining the western current in the east of this system, hot and dry conditions are applied to the area under their coverage. From the Northwestern region of Iran, in the impact basin of the low eastern part of this Rex system, which is mentioned outside the combined flow; Therefore, the unstable conditions in the study area are due to the positive rotating tawny wind of this arrangement from the lateral Rex system. In the case of west and east winds, the type of flow is important because their flow can be orbital or meridional. The wave motion of the winds in the meridional direction causes cold air to accumulate and fall inside the vessels within the higher latitudes to the lower latitudes, and vice versa, in the ridges, the warm air of the lower latitudes ascends to the higher latitudes. Orbital component maps show the direction of the wind (if the direction of the wind is negative and if it is positive in the direction of the west) and the speed of the orbital winds. The meridional component shows the wind speed in the north direction (if the wind speed values are positive) and south (if the wind speed values are negative). The wind map on the first day of pollution shows that the current The wind blows in a counter-clockwise direction in the low-lying center of the Mediterranean and at the same time in Northwestern Iran it moves in a counter-clockwise direction (anticyclonic) and increases pollution in the metropolis of Tabriz, but on the last day it gets west-east and The severity of pollution in Tabriz metropolis is gradually decreasing. Conclusion Given the importance of the phenomenon of dusty air pollution and on the other hand its widespread spatial expansion in recent years in the Northwest, the need for this research was felt more than ever; Therefore, in this study, suspended particles in the atmosphere, which is one of the most important air pollutants in Tabriz, has been analyzed. Examination of the air quality index of Bagh Shomal station in a period of study showed that the highest number of polluted days occurred in 2008 and the lowest number of dangerous polluted days occurred in 2006; but based on the persistence index and the average, days polluted with the dangerous condition of suspended particles were analyzed. According to the air quality index, the highest number of dangerously polluted days occurred in 2008 and in March, May and April. The hot core is on the area. Also, the effect of the condition of the upper levels of atmosphere was studied by drawing synoptic maps of 500 hPa on the polluted days. From the polluted middays, the two time periods of March 15 to March 17, 2008 and May 15 to May 17, 1988 were analyzed due to the continuity of the three days and the results indicated that there was a direct correlation between airborne synoptic circulation patterns and the polluted days in Tabriz. The main source of dust entering the metropolis of Tabriz during two periods with severe pollution of the deserts of Central Asia and Afghanistan. In addition this study showed that high air pressure, especially in the morning in autumn, causes an increase in the density of pollutants on the ground.
saeed jahanbakhsh; Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust; Hamid Mirhashemi
Abstract
Introduction Due to their height, geometry and orientation, the mountains affect the atmospheric currents. Therefore, mountains cause the formation, intensification or weakening of many atmospheric phenomena. One of the most obvious of these phenomena is lee cyclogenesis whose formation and evolution ...
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Introduction Due to their height, geometry and orientation, the mountains affect the atmospheric currents. Therefore, mountains cause the formation, intensification or weakening of many atmospheric phenomena. One of the most obvious of these phenomena is lee cyclogenesis whose formation and evolution is subject to interaction between mountains and atmospheric currents. The lee sides of mesoscale or large-scale mountains, such as the Alps, Rocky Mountains, the East Asian mountains and the Andes, are favorable regions of cyclogenesis. This type of cyclogenesis is known as lee cyclogenesis, and can be defined as the formation of a cyclone with strong positive vertical vorticity or an appreciable fall in pressure with a closed circulation formed in the lee of a mountain that then drifts away (Chung. et al, 1976). In this regard, most studies have been made about the lee cyclogenesis of the Alps and the Rocky Mountains. As a result, the general understanding of mechanism of lee cyclogenesis is derived from studies conducted on these two mountains and partially due to the Alpine Experiment (ALPEX) field project held in 1982. In other words, the general framework of the mechanisms that exists today about lee cyclogenesis is based on the results obtained from the study of the Alps and the Rocky Mountains. Methodology The variables used in this study are consists of horizontal wind speed (u and v), vertical wind speed vertical pressure coordinates (w), temperature (T) geopotential pressure levels (z). The data variables used 1 and 0.5 degrees in the horizontal and vertical distance of 50 hPa from 1000 to 200 hPa. The data were extracting from the archival database ECMWF ERA Interim version with six-hour monitoring. Preliminary investigations showed that unstable systems under certain elevation models are located in the middle of the atmosphere in the region of the west, northwest of the west and west to the upstream slopes of the Zagros Mountains. so that the study of middle - level maps showed how the trough and the ridge of such systems has played an important role in determining the direction and movement of these systems towards zagros because it is different in terms of the confluence or diffluence system, curvature and sheer vorticity advection and ageostrophic wind of the trough, and finally the direction in the trough. In general, the conditions prevailing on these systems and the it direction they pass through to the Zagros have an important role in how they interact with the zagros. Therefore, it is necessary to examine how these systems approach to Zagros. For this purpose, this important issue was further investigated using the ageostrophic wind equation. Because the ageostrophic wind indicates the imbalance of geostrophic, and in fact the change of wind both in space and time causes this imbalance of geostrophic and the creation of the ageostrophic wind (Lynch and Cassano 2006, 123). Also used curvature vorticity in the natural coordinates, quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation and divergence of the isallobaric wind. Results and discussion An examination of the maps of the lower atmospheric levels shows that in some cases the cyclones approaching the windward slopes of the Zagros, under the baroclinic wave’s atmosphere, lead to the formation of a secondary rotation in the lee ward Zagros. Therefore, it is necessary to have a primary cyclone on the windward slope of the Zagros Mountains to form the lee cyclone. So the detection of cyclone approaching windward of the Zagros Mountains shows that cyclones which move and even higher than the Mediterranean latitude to the east, would have approached the Zagros in a way that was accompanied by a pattern of confluence ridge - diffluence trough in the middle of the atmosphere. While the cyclones, accompanied by a trough, were moving northward along the path of their eastward before reaching the Zagros in the north east. On the other hand, the cyclons, formed in the Red Sea region or Sudan, were required to reach the Zagros Mountains (the maximum velocity at the base of the trough) or the diffluence trough to approach the zagros. At the same time, the cyclones that were located in the area were under a confluence trough, never moved to the Zagros Mountains. So, according to the latitude of the primary cyclone and how the stack - trough is the level of 500 hpa, the path of the approaching Zagros is different. However, in many cases the nature of the trough and the level of the level of 500 hpa on the path of the eastward movement changes from difflunce to confluence and vice versa, which occurs due to the changing location in the baroclinic wave Conclusion Because The Zagros Mountains create changes in approaching baroclinicity waves causes advent thermal anomaly and consequently cause the occurrence of cyclone, so, such cyclogenesis is interpreted adjust according to the theory modify baroclinicity waves. Because this theory clearly states that mountain lead to lee cyclogenesis by modify baroclinicity. It is worth noting that many of the much complexities of the relationship between the Zagros Mountains and baroclinicity waves that may cause the occurrence of cyclones are a variety of other theories proposed in the literature to be more consistent Atmospheric Sciences. In any case, this study is based on small portions and a special kind of cyclogenesis can be in the Zagros leeward.
Climatology
mehdi asadi; Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust
Volume 23, Issue 70 , March 2020, , Pages 101-122
Abstract
Limited fossil energy source and increase of energy use is always pushed man to replace the energy source. In this case the winds have always had a special place in the new generation of energy sources. East Azarbaijan province because of the topographical and relativity situation is one of the best ...
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Limited fossil energy source and increase of energy use is always pushed man to replace the energy source. In this case the winds have always had a special place in the new generation of energy sources. East Azarbaijan province because of the topographical and relativity situation is one of the best places for building a wind farm. therefore this research have been done to find out the best places for building wind farms in East Azarbaijan province, to find this places different criteria and sub criteria have been used. Given the importance of information fusion, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were selected for weighting the layers and were implemented by the help of Expert choice software. For special analyses and overlapping of layers the Arc GIS program have been used and after the analysis of information, according to the capacity of building wind farms, province of East Azarbaijan have been divided to four parts, great, good, normal, weak. At last, final conclusions represent that Geographic Information System as a Supportive Decision making system can be practical both in preparing of data and designing the priorities and expert's ideas dealing with different factors and also help the designers to select the proper location to found the wind farms. In this research,15 regions have been determined, considering priority of, overlay, limitation of land and places, survey of priority area, climate condition and personal observation have been determined that in sequence this places are Tabriz, Sahand, Osko, Azarshahr, Bostanabad, Shabestar, Jolfa, Haris, Miyane, Bonab, Marageh, Sarab, Ahar, Charayomagh and Hashtrod.
Climatology
Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust; Fariba Esfandeyari; Seyed Asaad Hosseini; Parvaneh Dolatkhah
Volume 22, Issue 65 , November 2018, , Pages 141-162
Abstract
One of the new techniques in the field of predicting hydrological and geomorphologic processes is artificial neural network from the components of artificial intelligence which are trying to implement the amazing features of human brain in an artificial system and are powerful tools in the field of modeling ...
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One of the new techniques in the field of predicting hydrological and geomorphologic processes is artificial neural network from the components of artificial intelligence which are trying to implement the amazing features of human brain in an artificial system and are powerful tools in the field of modeling and predicting geomorphologic parameters and in this study have been used for the prediction of sediment in Aras basin. For this purpose was used information of discharge, sedimentation and prediction monthly on Borran hydrometric station located in the Basin of Darreh Roud that is from the main sub basin of Aras river in Moghan plain during the period of 34 years (water year of 53-54 to 86-87). So that the discharge and precipitation rate as inputs to the neural network and sediment was considered the output of network. For this purpose used the facilities and functions available in programming environment MATLAB / 2010 and SPSS / 21 software. Then models were evaluated through statistical parameters such as the determination coefficient, root mean square error, mean square error, mean absolute error, correlation coefficient and also mean percentage relative error. The results, in addition to confirming the capability of artificial neural network model, showed that, there is good correspondence between predicted values and observed data. So that the error mean of this model with the observed data is 0.9 and correlation coefficient is 0.99 which is significant at 0.01.The results of this study showed that the artificial neural. Network model has more accuracy in the estimation of sediment at the investigated basin. The results can be useful in planning and management of water and watersheds and natural resource management, especially in agriculture, industry, drinking and Forecast of Reservoir Sedimentation
Climatology
Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust; Robab Razmi; Nasim Maiali Ahari; Karim Abbaszade
Abstract
Subsidence is a natural phenomenon which can be reinforced by the interferences and activities of human beings. Ghaleh area in Tasuj is located in North Eastern part of Uremia Lake. The frequent occurrences of draught, expansion of agriculture and the over-population and thus over-exploitation of the ...
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Subsidence is a natural phenomenon which can be reinforced by the interferences and activities of human beings. Ghaleh area in Tasuj is located in North Eastern part of Uremia Lake. The frequent occurrences of draught, expansion of agriculture and the over-population and thus over-exploitation of the water belonging to underground beds and the delicate texture of soil have caused subsidence in some parts of the area. Regarding the existing evidences, the researchers are going to investigate the source of such a phenomenon in this area. To do so, we have used Geomorphologic and geologic data plus fault maps and hypsometric levels during 11 years period (2001-2011). integration and analysis of the maps by using ARC GIS software and the preparation of isopies maps for each of the monthly and annual by using Surfer win software and the cluster analysis based on tree diagram, showed that during the 11 years the amount of subsidence has increased due to the considerable reduction of underground water levels in some parts of the area such as Ghaleh village. On the other hand human factor has been recognized as the most important factor for the subsidence in the area.
