Research Paper
Geotourism
Abolfazl Ghanbari; Taha Imanzadeh; khatereh Abdi
Abstract
Tourism in the New World has been considered by decision makers as an important industry in the economic development of countries. In order to achieve this and its expansion, the issue of security is undoubtedly one of the important parameters that researchers have paid special attention to; Therefore, ...
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Tourism in the New World has been considered by decision makers as an important industry in the economic development of countries. In order to achieve this and its expansion, the issue of security is undoubtedly one of the important parameters that researchers have paid special attention to; Therefore, in the present study, the role of security in the development of foreign tourism will be investigated. The results of research studies indicate that different types of security, including financial, social security, etc., as well as how to present the image of Iran and advertising, affect the development of foreign tourism in Iran. For this reason, recognizing the role of security in the experience of tourism and marketing of government officials in order to create more security and promote it, is very important. In this study, to investigate the role of security in the development of foreign tourism, a researcher-made questionnaire with 25 indicators and a Likert scale was prepared and distributed among foreign tourists in the city of Tabriz. 70 questionnaires were completed in three weeks, of which 65 were suitable for use; The reliability and validity of the questionnaires were calculated using Cronbach's alpha coefficient and analyzed by structural equation modeling with least squares approach (PLS-SEM). The model variables of the role of security in the development of foreign tourism were extracted from the summary of previous studies. The results show that the factor of political security with a path coefficient of 0.327 has the greatest impact on the factors of development of foreign tourism.
Research Paper
Urban Planning
Ali Azar; Abolfazl Zakariyazadeh; Elham Morovati Zarghani
Abstract
Considering the importance of urban green spaces in increasing the city livability and competitiveness and their role in the citizens' recreation and leisure time, it is necessary to have a precise understanding of the components affecting the satisfaction of citizens. Accordingly, the aim of the present ...
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Considering the importance of urban green spaces in increasing the city livability and competitiveness and their role in the citizens' recreation and leisure time, it is necessary to have a precise understanding of the components affecting the satisfaction of citizens. Accordingly, the aim of the present study is to explain the citizens' satisfaction from the urban green spaces in zone 6 of Tabriz metropolis. The research method is a descriptive-analytical method and it is also practical research. The statistical population includes 30 parks in the zone 6 of the Tabriz Metropolitan Municipality, of which 12 parks were purposefully selected as a sample size. The data were collected through documentary and field methods. In order to determine the level of citizens' satisfaction from the green spaces, 320 a researcher-made questionnaires were provided to the park visitors. The results of the regression test show that the service quality index has the highest impact and the safety and security index had the least impact on the satisfaction of the subjects. The average overall satisfaction with the urban green spaces of the zone 6 of the Tabriz Metropolitan Municipality was 3.25 and considering the average distance between the obtained and the standard average and from the subjects' view, these parks are in an average level in terms of the studied indicators. However, the dynamism (cultural, artistic, recreational and sports attractions) and empathy indexes of urban green spaces in zone 6 of Tabriz Metropolitan Municipality enjoyed from a satisfaction higher than the average
Research Paper
Urban Planning
احمد اسدی; Mohsen Ahadnejad Roshti
Abstract
Nowadays, due to the increasing growth of the population of cities, many issues and problems have plagued the cities. For this purpose, in order to face these issues and problems and realize the sustainability of cities, the human settlement organization has put forward the approach of urban prosperity ...
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Nowadays, due to the increasing growth of the population of cities, many issues and problems have plagued the cities. For this purpose, in order to face these issues and problems and realize the sustainability of cities, the human settlement organization has put forward the approach of urban prosperity with emphasis on the five dimensions of productivity, infrastructure development, quality of life, equality and social participation, and environmental sustainability. Considering the effect of the relationship between urban prosperity and sustainable development, the purpose of this research is to measurement of urban prosperity indicators in Zanjan city. In this regard, the research method is mixed (quantitative-qualitative) with practical purpose and analytical-exploratory nature. In order to analyze the data, structural equations based on variance with partial least squares method were used in Smart-pls software. Also, the statistical population of the research includes city managers, academic elites and experts on urban issues in Zanjan, and due to the unknown number of the statistical population, a sample size of 100 people has been determined using Cohen's method at a confidence level of 95%, and access to them is based on The non-random pattern is purposeful. The findings of the research show that among the indicators of urban prosperity in Zanjan, productivity and infrastructure indicators are the most feasible. Also, among the 25 investigated variables, only 5 variables are "proper access to all types of basic services (water, electricity, gas and telephone), stable personal and social security for all age-sex groups, suitable population density at different levels of the city, access to housing "Durable and proper collection and disposal of urban waste and wastewater" have a statistical value higher than 1.96 and were in good condition.
Research Paper
Urban Planning
AliAkbar Salaripour; Zabihallah Beheshtizadeh
Abstract
One of the features of a pedestrianized city is having suitable public places so that citizens could spend their leisure time there. Making such spaces is, one of the important duties of city managers. Chaharbagh Abbasi Street, having the characteristics of third places such as green spaces and shady ...
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One of the features of a pedestrianized city is having suitable public places so that citizens could spend their leisure time there. Making such spaces is, one of the important duties of city managers. Chaharbagh Abbasi Street, having the characteristics of third places such as green spaces and shady trees that can bring a sense of belonging and memories for pedestrians is now available as a pedestrian for citizensIn this research, the conceptual model was defined, by studying library document and also, which is done by examining other research works conducted in this field. In this model, the characteristics of the third places were classified as independent variables in four indicators of "uses and activity", "access and linkages", "comfort and image", and "sociability". And the extent of its effect on vitality index as a dependent variable was investigated by designing a questionnaire in the form of a five-choice Likert scale and analyzed by Smart PLS software with a second order confirmatory Factor method. The statistical sample size was obtained using the Morgan Table and the questionnaire was distributed randomly among 384 citizens in Chaharbagh Abbasi pedestrian area of Isfahan city. This study showed that, although “access and linkages” variables does not have a direct effect on the vitality variable, indirectly and through influencing other variables, it has a significant role in the vitality of Chaharbagh pedestrian space. In this research, 66% of the changes in vitality as a dependent variable were explained by independent variables such as “comfort and image”, “sociability”, “uses and activity” in the structural model. Since most of the citizens use the pedestrian space as a place to talk and have fun with family and friends, it is very crucial to provide a safe environment that can make the conversation space pleasant.
Research Paper
Geomorphology
sayyad asghari; Elnaz Piroozi
Abstract
The danger of earthquakes causes irreparable damage to societies. Therefore, it is effective to prepare to deal with it by identifying vulnerable points. Ardabil City is not exempt from this rule due to the existence of many faults, seismic points, and non-compliance with standards. Based on this, the ...
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The danger of earthquakes causes irreparable damage to societies. Therefore, it is effective to prepare to deal with it by identifying vulnerable points. Ardabil City is not exempt from this rule due to the existence of many faults, seismic points, and non-compliance with standards. Based on this, the current research seeks to measure and evaluate the vulnerability of Ardabil City against the risk of earthquakes. For this purpose, first by examining research sources related to the subject, some of the most important factors affecting the occurrence of this phenomenon were prepared as independent variables. Valuation and standardization of the layers were done by using the fuzzy membership function and weighting of the criteria, using the CRITIC method. Finally, modeling was done using the MARCOS multi-criteria decision-making method. The results of the study showed, respectively; The factors of distance from the fault, land use, and distance from the earthquake center have the greatest influence on the occurrence of earthquakes in the region with the weight coefficient of 0.110, 0.104, and 0.102. In addition, according to the results of the research, 16.67% of the entire city of Ardabil has a high vulnerability potential and 30.27% has a relatively high vulnerability probability. Also, based on the results of the research, Ardabil city is at an average level in terms of the level of vulnerability to earthquake risk, the cities of Hir and Arallo are in the high vulnerability category and Somarin city is in the relatively high vulnerability zone. In addition, according to the findings of the research, 22.86 and 30.86 percent of the settlements and villages of Ardabil, respectively; In the area with high and relatively high vulnerability, 13.14% in the area with moderate vulnerability, and respectively; 22.28 and 10.86% are located in the area with relatively low and low earthquake vulnerability.
Research Paper
Geotourism
Ziba Kodkhodaei; Hamid-Reza Rakhshaninasab; mojtaba Soleimani Damaneh
Abstract
The sampling method is simple random, and the sample size was 383 people using Morgan's table. The content validity of the questionnaire was calculated and confirmed by the professors (Teaching Department of Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchistan) and its reliability with Cronbach's alpha test ...
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The sampling method is simple random, and the sample size was 383 people using Morgan's table. The content validity of the questionnaire was calculated and confirmed by the professors (Teaching Department of Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchistan) and its reliability with Cronbach's alpha test at the level of 0.852. In order to analyze and test the hypotheses, inferential statistics methods including Smirnov-Kolmogrov test, sample t-test, Friedman and structural equations have been used. The findings of the research show that information technology and its components, such as the development of information technology infrastructure, electronic marketing and electronic commerce, have an effect on the development of nature tourism in Konark. In such a way that the criterion of virtual tourism was ranked first with an average of 4.50 and the criterion of telecommunication platform was ranked last with an average of 2.45. Thus, the innovation of the research is that for the first time, this research examines the comprehensive role and all aspects of information and communication technology in the development of nature tourism in the coastal areas of southern Iran, including the city of Kanarak, while Most of the researches have paid attention to electronic tourism and other aspects of tourism, including health and sports. In general, some platforms and suitable infrastructure, such as amplifier towers, telephone and Internet, and on the other hand, the lack of attention to the local handicrafts industry of the city has been neglected, which is to pay attention to the strengthening of fixed and mobile telephone lines and coverage. Proper internet, implementation of city and provincial television programs to introduce the tourist attractions of Konark city will be realized by the city administration, including the governor and municipality.
Research Paper
Geomorphology
Shima Vosoghi; Reza Zakerinejad; mojgan entezari
Abstract
Gully erosion is one of the most dangerous types of water erosion that destroys land and disrupts the balance of biological resources and the environment. In this study, the effective factors in gully erosion, prediction and zoning of gully erosion were investigated using the maximum entropy model in ...
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Gully erosion is one of the most dangerous types of water erosion that destroys land and disrupts the balance of biological resources and the environment. In this study, the effective factors in gully erosion, prediction and zoning of gully erosion were investigated using the maximum entropy model in Alamarvdasht watershed in Fars province. First, the location of the ditches was prepared through field surveys, aerial photographs and using Google Earth software images, and then the digital layer of the ditches was prepared in point form in the GIS software environment, and in the next step, the basin's physiographic indicators was prepared from in ARC GIS software. In this research, a soil texture map was prepared in GIS software with field operations in the study area and soil sampling and testing, and a land use map and vegetation density was prepared using Landsat satellite images, and then each of the indicators was The ditches were added in the GIS environment. To implement the maximum entropy model, 70% of the data were used for model training and 30% for model testing. In this study, the effect of each other indicators was determined using the Jack Knife test, and finally the most effective indicators were introduced. In order to validate the model, the direction of zoning of gully erosion in the studied area was evaluated using curve (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC). The results of this research showed that climate index, slope, geology, land use, direction of slope and height are the most influential indicators in creating ditch erosion and the AUC=0.997 is at an excellent level.
Research Paper
Urban Planning
Mahdi Mohammadi sarin dizaj; Abolfazl Shahamat
Abstract
The old and inefficient urban tissues are areas that, separated from the evolutionary cycle of life, and have become the center of problems and inadequacies.This research aims to evaluate the feasibility of re-creating the old and inefficient fabric of Tepeh and Hamam neighborhoods in Ajabshir city. ...
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The old and inefficient urban tissues are areas that, separated from the evolutionary cycle of life, and have become the center of problems and inadequacies.This research aims to evaluate the feasibility of re-creating the old and inefficient fabric of Tepeh and Hamam neighborhoods in Ajabshir city. It is of applied type and descriptive-analytical method. The information was obtained in the field using a researcher-made questionnaire tool. To apply the SWOT model, 25 specialists and experts in the field of urban planning and municipality were selected and the questionnaire of the model was provided to them. SWOT strategic analysis model and quantitative strategic planning matrix QSPM were used to analyze variables and indicators. A five-level Likert scale was used to measure the variables in the questionnaire. The findings show that based on the SWOT model, the score of internal factors of IFE was 2.13 and the score of external factors of EFE was 2.58. Therefore, internal factors with a score of less than 2.5 indicate that weaknesses prevail over strengths, and external factors with a score of more than 2.5 indicate that opportunities prevail over threats. Therefore, the appropriate strategy for recreating the old neighborhoods of Tappe and Hammam in the street of Ajabshir is a conservative type (wo). The result showed that after prioritizing the results in the QSPM matrix, the strategy of eliminating the irregularity of the inefficient texture and the compactness of the granularity of the physical elements with regard to the possibility of turning these neighborhoods into commercial and tourism centers as the first priority for the regeneration and management of the development of the worn out and inefficient texture of the hill neighborhoods And the street bath of Ajabshir city was determined.Key words: urban regeneration, inefficient Texture, SWOT, QSPM, Tappe and Hamam Kuche neighborhoods, Ajabshir city.
Research Paper
GIS&RS
Mansoureh Sadrykia; Neda Kazemipour
Abstract
Land subsidence is an environmental phenomenon of the gradual or sudden subsidence of the land. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the land subsidence in Shabestar plain of East Azerbaijan province. Using Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) time series analysis method, the crust surface displacement ...
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Land subsidence is an environmental phenomenon of the gradual or sudden subsidence of the land. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the land subsidence in Shabestar plain of East Azerbaijan province. Using Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) time series analysis method, the crust surface displacement rate between 2018 and 2021 is investigated. The maximum subsidence is seen in the southern and southeastern parts of the plain with a maximum rate of about 8 cm per year in the direction of the satellite line of sight. Also, using AHP the conditioning factors are weighted and the land subsidence susceptibility (LSS) is modeled using spatial analyses. Thereupon, Shabstar plain was classified into five regions with the LSS: "Very High": 3%, "High": 20%, "Moderate": 25%, "Low": 33% and "Very Low": 19% of the total area of the plain. To verify the accuracy of the subsidence susceptibility model, the displacement map obtained from radar interferometry was utilized, the area under the ROC curve of 86% confirmed the good prediction accuracy of the model. Also, the model was assessed by performing sensitivity analysis for most important conditioning factors. The introduced model can provide useful and reliable information for managers and decision-makers of the region for the effective and timely 'prevention' and 'mitigation' planning with low cost and time.
Research Paper
All other Geographic fields of studies , Interdisciplinary
javad hajializadeh
Abstract
This study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effectiveness of game-based education in teaching map reading on the academic motivation of primary education students in the geographic map reading department at Farhangian University. The research method is semi-experimental in the form of ...
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This study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effectiveness of game-based education in teaching map reading on the academic motivation of primary education students in the geographic map reading department at Farhangian University. The research method is semi-experimental in the form of pre-test and post-test with experimental and control groups. In which four classes (2 classes of boys and 2 classes of girls) were selected as available samples and placed in two experimental and control groups. For the experimental group, 6 sessions of a game-based educational package were considered and during this time, the control group was trained in the traditional way. Both groups were evaluated before and after the intervention using a researcher-made test of map reading and academic motivation questionnaire. The obtained data were analyzed using one-way and multi-way analysis of covariance. The results showed that there is a significant difference between the experimental group and the control group in academic motivation (internal and external motivation). The results of this research confirmed the effectiveness of the game-based teaching method on the academic motivation of student teachers.
Research Paper
Urban Planning
Hadi Hakimi; hadi naghibi; akbar Asghari Zamani; feridoun babaii aghdm
Abstract
Today, the speed of urban development has exceeded the capacity and ability of governments to expand infrastructure and provide services and create employment, as a result, the phenomenon of informal settlement has spread rapidly and irregularly. Statistics show that a population of metropolises and ...
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Today, the speed of urban development has exceeded the capacity and ability of governments to expand infrastructure and provide services and create employment, as a result, the phenomenon of informal settlement has spread rapidly and irregularly. Statistics show that a population of metropolises and even many medium-sized cities have settled in disorderly habitats and on the outskirts of cities, which constitute the poorest groups of the urban population, this shows the necessity of efforts to create better conditions in these settlements. . Today, one of the new ways to analyze the current and upcoming challenges is to use the foresight approach and look at the present from the future. Due to the rapid growth of the population and migration during the past decades, the city of Khoy has not been able to provide suitable conditions for the settlement of a part of the population. For this reason, the population that moved to the city of Khoy was forced to live on the outskirts of the city and created a phenomenon called informal settlements. This research was written with the aim of identifying the influencing factors on the expansion of informal settlements in Khoy city. For this purpose, the Delphi method was used to identify the influential factors, and the result was the identification of 72 factors in 6 different areas, then the mutual effects analysis method was used to extract the key influential factors, and as a result, out of the total of 72 factors, 26 Factors were identified as key factors.
Research Paper
Urban Planning
gashtaseb kiani; koorosh afzali; keramatollah ziari
Abstract
Compilation of the feasibility model of Iran's strategic plans )studied in the city of Shahrekord)Abstract:The current research is based on the practical goal of development and the method of its implementation is descriptive and analytical, and it is in the category of qualitative research, the idea ...
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Compilation of the feasibility model of Iran's strategic plans )studied in the city of Shahrekord)Abstract:The current research is based on the practical goal of development and the method of its implementation is descriptive and analytical, and it is in the category of qualitative research, the idea of developing a model of the realization of Iran's strategic plans is based on determining the success rate of the realization of the following program in the review of the evaluation system of criteria and achieving goals in advance is determined to be of interest. Therefore, the aim of this research is to compile criteria and indicators of realizability. According to the data theory, the foundation is in the form of a pilot in the city of Shahrekord. In this way, if this model is to be presented in the city of Shahrekord, what characteristics should it have? In this part, by using the method of systematic grounded theory, collecting textual data, interviewing knowledgeable people in both research and executive fields, and analyzing the data, a wide range of effective factors in Application and implementation of this approach in the form of 22 main categories. And 129 subcategories and relationships between them have been identified. The achievement of this research is the identification of development indicators for the realization of urban plans, as well as the evaluation, ranking, analysis and evaluation and providing a particularly desirable model. With regard to the findings regarding the feasibility of the optimal model plan of Shahrekord city, it was determined that the development of participation, improvement of municipal performance and sustainable urban development are among the components of the feasibility of urban development plans.
Research Paper
Geotourism
mehdi mododi arkhudi; sajad ferdowsi; Narges Rahimi Taghanaki
Abstract
Agricultural tourism is considered one of the strategies for the development of rural areas. In this regard, the purpose of this research is to identify the factors affecting the development of agricultural tourism. The current research is of an applied type in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical ...
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Agricultural tourism is considered one of the strategies for the development of rural areas. In this regard, the purpose of this research is to identify the factors affecting the development of agricultural tourism. The current research is of an applied type in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method. Data collection has been done through the field method and a structured questionnaire. The statistical population of the research includes rural tourists in the study area. Meanwhile, sampling has been done by the simple random method. Also, according to Cochran's method, the number of the statistical sample is equal to 148 people. In order to ensure the validity of the research questionnaire, content validity, factor loading coefficient, combined reliability, and also Cronbach's alpha method were used to check reliability. Data analysis was done using descriptive and inferential statistics in SPSS software and the structural equation modeling technique in Smartpls software. The results indicate that despite the high importance of socio-cultural, economic, facilities and services, environmental, and institutional components in the rural areas of Saman county, the quality of the mentioned factors was lower than average. Meanwhile, the institutional component has more unfavorable conditions than other components, which is caused by the existence of serious weaknesses in factors such as incentive plans, government participation and support, support systems, laws, and regulations, specifically in the field of agricultural tourism. Therefore, according to the factors affecting the development of agricultural tourism in rural areas, necessary measures to improve the situation of this type of tourism should be put on the agenda of the authorities.
Research Paper
Climatology
Yagob Dinpashoh; Saeid Jahanbakhsh-Asl; Asma Azadeh Garebagh
Abstract
In this study the values of potential reference crop evapotranspiration were calculated using the FAO-56 Penman Monteith method in six stations located in southern shores of Caspian Sea. Trends in annual ET0 values of the stations were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. Then to determine the relative ...
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In this study the values of potential reference crop evapotranspiration were calculated using the FAO-56 Penman Monteith method in six stations located in southern shores of Caspian Sea. Trends in annual ET0 values of the stations were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. Then to determine the relative importance of climatic variables on ET0 in a certain station factor analysis conducted. To do this, correlation matrix (R) of seven variables also called similarity matrix was constructed. The significance of correlation coefficients were tested. Results of trends in ET0 showed that in all the stations (except Noshahr) trends of annual ET0 were upward and significant. The slopes of trend lines were positive in all the stations. Factor analysis showed that the first two factors accounted the total variance in the range of 56.5 per cent in the Rasht to 79.6 per cent in the Sari. The largest loading of the first factor is attributed to sunshine hours in the station Rasht, however, it was maximum air temperature in all other sites. In the case of the second factor, the largest loading belonged to wind speed (in Rasht, Gorgan, Sari and Noshahr) and precipitation (in Ramsar and Astara). The findings of this study can be helpful in optimum management of regional water resources.
Research Paper
Urban Planning
Akbar Samadi; Rafat Shahmari Ardjani; alireza poursheykhian; Seyyede Sedighe Hasanimehr; Hossein asghari
Abstract
Earthquake is considered as one of the most catastrophic and destructive types of natural hazards that cause extensive damage to property and assets, especially in urban areas, and cause many human casualties by destroying buildings and urban infrastructure. Therefore, the first and most basic step in ...
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Earthquake is considered as one of the most catastrophic and destructive types of natural hazards that cause extensive damage to property and assets, especially in urban areas, and cause many human casualties by destroying buildings and urban infrastructure. Therefore, the first and most basic step in crisis management in order to reduce the effects of an earthquake is to identify vulnerable levels against this crisis. In this regard, the present research was written with the aim of evaluating the level of vulnerability of Ardabil city against the earthquake crisis. The research method in the present study is mixed (quantitative and qualitative) with practical purpose and analytical and exploratory nature. The statistical population of the research also included managers and elites of Ardabil city, and the sample size was determined through the Delphi method of 20 experts. Also, in line with information analysis, have been used AHP technique in Expert Choice software, Weighted Overlay method in GIS software, and RADIUS damage estimation model. The findings of the research show that by examining 15 criteria, the criteria of distance from the fault, proximity to hazardous uses and access to service centers have the most importance (influence) to assess vulnerability to earthquakes. Also, according to the evaluation of the examined criteria and its integration in the fuzzy overlay method, it was found that about 13% of the tissue of Ardabil city is in the zone of very high vulnerability and about 18% is in the zone of high vulnerability. On the other hand, the results of the RADIUS model show that 13853 buildings are subject to destruction, 36% of them are in region 1 and 29% of them are in region 4. Also, the number of injured in the possible earthquake is estimated to be 67117 and the number of dead is 3113.
Research Paper
Urban Planning
Mohammad Sheikhi; maryam arab
Abstract
The ineffectiveness of urban comprehensive plans in facing the complex issues of Iran's urban planning system, finally caused a change in the approach of compiling these plans from a purely physical approach to a spatial-strategic approach as a new approach in the conditions of urban planning in Iran, ...
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The ineffectiveness of urban comprehensive plans in facing the complex issues of Iran's urban planning system, finally caused a change in the approach of compiling these plans from a purely physical approach to a spatial-strategic approach as a new approach in the conditions of urban planning in Iran, and the preparation of urban development plans with this approach was approved by the Iran Supreme Council of Urban Planning and Architecture in the summer of 1400 AH. But, the important point in this way is to pay attention to providing the necessary capacities to prepare plans with this approach. Therefore, the main goal of the current research is to analyze the challenges of using this approach with an emphasis on the challenges of its participatory aspect, which was done based on the pathology of obstacles to the participation of stakeholders in the experience of Isfahan Comprehensive Plan as the first plan prepared with this approach. The research method is qualitative and based on it, the data collection method includes in-depth semi-structured interviews and refer to documents, and the qualitative content analysis method was used in the data analysis. The findings of the research showed that participation in the preparing Isfahan Plan by all three stakeholders, including the public sector, civil society and planners, has faced many challenges and these challenges consist of three main categories of institutional environment, structural factors, and content and procedural characteristics of the manuscript of the new approach, And it seems that until the participation is not institutionalized in the planning context of Iran and the attitude of the stakeholders towards participatory planning is not changed the transition to the new approach will not be practical and this change of attitude will remain only at the level of changing the discourse
Research Paper
Climatology
Roghayeh Maleki Meresht; Bromand Salahi; Mahnaz Saber
Abstract
The current research was carried out to analyze the changes in precipitation in northwest Iran during the coming decades based on GCM models. For this purpose, first, the precipitation of 1985-2014 was trended based on the Mann-Kendall test. Then, the daily precipitation data for each of the studied ...
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The current research was carried out to analyze the changes in precipitation in northwest Iran during the coming decades based on GCM models. For this purpose, first, the precipitation of 1985-2014 was trended based on the Mann-Kendall test. Then, the daily precipitation data for each of the studied stations was simulated in SDSM6.1 software for 1985-2014. Then, under the scenarios (SSP2-4.5) and (SSP5-8.5) of CanEsm5 and MPI-ESMI-2HR models, the precipitation of 2015-2043 was predicted. To evaluate the performance of CMIP6 models and compare the basic and predicted values, MSE, RMSE, and MAE statistical measures were used. According to the results of the Man-Kendal test, the precipitation of the base period in the stations of Tabriz, Ardabil, Urmia, Takab, and Maragheh has a decreasing trend and in the stations of Meshginshahr, Sardasht, Mako, Khalkhal, Sarab, Jolfa, and Parsabad it has an increasing trend. Among the 12 investigated stations, only the Maragheh station had a significant decreasing trend. In other stations, precipitation trends were not significant. According to the predictions made based on the mentioned models, under the medium scenario (SSP 2-4.5), the precipitation will decrease in late winter and early spring. In other months, especially summer and autumn months, the percentage of precipitation will be higher. Based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the highest percentage of precipitation decrease in the MPI model was predicted by 33% in Jolfa, Sardasht, and Maragheh stations, and in the CanESM5 model, about 33-35% in Jolfa, Takab, and Urmia stations. According to the results, although both models predicted precipitation with a relatively high error, the MPI model had a lower error and more accuracy in predicting precipitation than the CanESM5 model.
Research Paper
Rural Planning
sefatollah rahmani; alireza nikooie; mehrnosh mirzaie; neda alizadeh
Abstract
Formulating a research program strategy based on the goals and policies of the upstream and making it operational based on the capacities and facilities is one of the important and basic measures that have been carried out in the Agricultural Research, Education, and Promotion Organization (TAT). Part ...
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Formulating a research program strategy based on the goals and policies of the upstream and making it operational based on the capacities and facilities is one of the important and basic measures that have been carried out in the Agricultural Research, Education, and Promotion Organization (TAT). Part of this program is strategic identification and priorities, economic and social research of agriculture and rural development. which has been done using descriptive, survey,and field research methods, using the SWAT technique.After reviewing the above documents,expert meetings were held with the presence of experts and experienced researchers in the field of economic and social research in the agriculture and rural development sectors in the country. The results show that among the 11 weak points examined,three cases are climatic diversity, the information obtained from studies, and the existence of legal capacity,and among the 21 weak points examined,territorial fragmentation, the absence of a positive economic and social attitude in research and program. Planning the development of the sector is of great importance.Also, among the 14 investigated opportunities, two cases are the orientation of the sector towards knowledge-based and the possibility of increasing the production capacity of agricultural products,and among the 11 investigated threats,two cases are the lack of practical belief in the proper structure and little attention to research results in planning. They have great privilege and importance. Based on the results of internal factors and external factors, the evaluation matrix shows that the current state of agricultural economics and rural development research is in the defensive area. In other words, trying to maintain the status quo.For 9 research areas in 14 research axes,more than 700 economic and social plans/projects have been identified, for their implementation, it is necessary to provide facilities, credits,and expert human resources with the participation of the private sector and universities.
