نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• محمدرضا پورمحمدی ¹
• فریدون بابائی اقدم ²
• کیومرث نعیمی ³

¹ استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز

² دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز

³ پژوهشگر دکتری شهرسازی، دانشگاه هنر اصفهان

چکیده

این پژوهش با بهره‌گیری از پایه فکری آینده‌نگاری، جهت تبیین برنامه ریزی با رهیافت نوین آینده‌نگاری در این حوزه، به شناسایی عوامل کلیدی موثر، تبیین وضعیت‌های محتمل این عوامل و در نهایت تدوین سناریوهای احتمالی و شناسایی سناریوهای مطلوب موثر در وضعیت آینده سکونتگاه‌های فرودست شهری در شهر سنندج می‌پردازد. روش تحقیق از لحاظ هدف بنیادی - کاربردی و از نوع ترکیبی زنجیره‌ای می‌باشد. برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از تکنیک پویش محیطی استفاده شده است. همچنین جهت تحلیل داده‌ها از روش تحلیل ساختاری(ABP) به‌ وسیله‌ نرم‌افزار MICMACو از روش سناریونویسی به وسیله نرم‌افزار SCENARIOWIZARD جهت تحلیل و تدوین سناریوها استفاده شده است. پس از جمع‌بندی نهایی 3 سناریو جامع ارائه شد. سناریو اول به عنوان محتمل‌ترین سناریو از مطلوبیت بالایی برخوردار نمی‌باشد که بیشتر ادامه دهنده وضع موجود با رشدی کند و بینابین رو داراست. سناریو دوم به عنوان مطلوبترین سناریو که نشان دهنده وضعیت‌های بهتر و خوشبینانه با رشد تدریجی روبه بهبود می‌باشد و سومین سناریو محتمل بیشتر نشان دهنده وضعیت‌های بینابین و ایستا و بحرانی می‌باشد. در نهایت جهت بازآفرینی پایدار باید با هدفگذاری و تدوین سیاست‌های کارآمد تلاش شود که وضعیت‌های مطلوب در سناریوها در آینده تحقق پیدا کند و جلوی وضعیت‌های نامطلوب و بحرانی گرفته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• سکونتگاه‌های فرودست شهری
• آینده‌نگاری
• بازآفرینی شهری
• سنندج
• سناریونویسی

موضوعات

• برنامه ریزی شهری

عنوان مقاله [English]

Urban Slums Sustainable Regeneration Through Foresight Approach Case Study: Sanandaj Urban Slums

نویسندگان [English]

• Mohammad Reza Pourmohammadi ¹
• Freydon Babai Aghdam ²
• Kiomars Naimi ³

چکیده [English]

Introduction
Almost half of the world's population lives in cities. According to the report (UN-HABITAT) Urban areas in the next 30 years, They will be the most important centers of world population growth and with this increase in population, Planners and governments of developing countries They face the challenge of high poverty growth rates. However, The manifestation of poverty that was once more characteristic of rural areas, Today it has become more and more urban. One of the main consequences of increasing poverty in cities and urbanization of poverty, housing shortage and the increasing formation of lower urban settlements, The population of these settlements for 2020 is estimated at 889 million people Lower urban settlements or what is commonly called "informal housing". It is one of the problems facing today's cities, especially at the local level. After years of remediation trials, it is still the lower urban settlements They are a fundamental challenge for cities. In dealing with the phenomenon of spontaneous and inferior urban settlements Various approaches and programs have been used That experience has shown That physical dominance approach and without addressing the needs, wants and priorities of the local community and weak participation of local communities and the absence of stakeholders in the planning and implementation process, Many things have become inefficient.in this study using the intellectual base of foresight, In order to explain the plan The new approach foresight in this area, To discuss and review identify key factors, The amount and How Effectiveness And explain These conditions possible And finally formulate possible scenarios and identify optimal scenarios affecting the future status of urban slums in Sanandaj.
Methodology
This research is fundamental-applied in terms of purpose and it is descriptive-analytical in nature based on new methods of futures research. Library-field method, questionnaire and environmental scanning technique were used to collect information.The questionnaires were completed through a group of experts and experts in the field of housing planning and development. In order to conduct research, various futures research techniques are used, including environmental scanning, interaction / structural impact analysis and scenario writing. Has provided a comprehensive combination in presenting a new method of urban studies foresight. Also from specialized futures research software such as MICMAC and SCENARIOWIZARD For the first time in urban studies with emphasis on planning studies of lower urban settlements, has been used in this study. Which is one of the key features of this research.
Results and discussion
Finally results reveal that, 54 operating in 6 areas by environmental scanning, affecting the future status Urban Slums and inner city and eventually identified 54 of these after the review and how these factors impact on each other and on the future status Residences No. 12, which had the key to the future status of Urban Slums and inner city plays were selected by defining the conditions of each factor in the future progress of these residents may be the number 45 has been designed. By 45 × 45 matrix based on scripting and using the knowledge of experts in the relevant fields to assess the efficacy of each of the states on the occurrence or non-occurrence of other states, using the software SCENARIOWIZARD, 3 strong scenarios, 14 High compatible scenarios(unbelievable) and 250 weak scenarios were detected that this study  to analyzes 14 High compatible scenarios. The collection After the conclusion of three scenarios were presented.
Conclusion
The first scenario as the most likely scenario is not of High desirability The further continuation of the status quo With slow growth And interstitial Is. The second scenario as the most favorable scenario Which reflects better conditions And optimistic with the gradual growth Is to improve And The third likely scenario is more indicative of interstitial and static situations and crisis. Finally for Recreation of Sustainability Should be targeting And formulate effective policies Trying that favorable conditions in the scenarios will be realized in the future And the adverse and critical situations to be taken.
Hence a number of general strategies are presented:
- Focus on key drivers affecting the future status of Sanandaj lower urban settlements and efforts to better manage them
- Having a strong program-oriented macro-country management and also having a dynamic economy in the country
- Implementing policies in rural areas and small towns to control migration to the city of Sanandaj and create population stability in the province
- Efforts to control land and housing prices as well as formulate policies to provide efficient housing
- Strict supervision of land around the city and management during construction on the outskirts of the city
- Efforts to increase the influence of local institutions and increase institutional trust
- Efforts to improve the environmental status of these settlements by the city administration
- Efforts to raise the level of literacy of the people and encourage the formation of new reference groups

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Urban Slums
• Foresight
• Urban Regeneration
• Sanandaj
• Scenario-Base Planning