نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• جلیل خطیبی ¹
• رحیم سرور ²
• بختیار عزت پناه ³

¹ دانشجوی دکترای گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران

² استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

³ استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرند،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،مرند،ایران

چکیده

مسئله توسعه مسکن و برنامه ریزی برای آن در قالب طرح های توسعه شهری با حداقل هزینه و حداقل مداخلات برای ایجاد شرایط زیست بهینه در فضای شهری، از اهداف آرمانی مدیریت شهری است. از طرفی، تحقق اهداف طرح های توسعه شهری، درگروی توسعه مسکن پایدار و با کیفیت است. که در آن به لحاظ فرمی، زیبا و منطبق بر شرایط محیطی، با میزان ماندگاری و طول عمر بالا، رعایت استانداردهای ساخت وساز، امنیت بالا و مصرف انرژی پایین رعایت گردد.
این مقاله با روش توصیفی-تحلیلی بدنبال تبیین و تحلیل نقش طرح های توسعه شهری بر سیاست های توسعه مسکن با رویکرد آینده پژوهشی در منطقه 3 شهر زنجان است. گردآوری داده ها با روش مطالعات میدانی و کتابخانه ای انجام شده است. جامعه آماری شامل گروه متخصصین شهری است که با روش نمونه گیری گلوله برفی، 30 نفر برای پانل دلفی انتخاب شد. برای تحلیل داده ها نیز از آزمون تحلیل عاملی، آزمون رگرسیون چندگانه و رویکرد تحلیل اثرات متقابل تعادلی با کمک نرم افزارهایSPSS و Scenario Wizard استفاده شده است.
یافته های تحقیق نشان داد که همبستگی بین «طرح های توسعه شهری» با «توسعه مسکن» برابر 539/0 است. و شاخص «مدیریتی» با ضریب (444/0=β) بیشترین همبستگی را بر «طرح های توسعه شهری» دارد. همچنین، مهمترین الگوی پایدار توسعه و تولید مسکن در قالب ضوابط طرح های توسعه شهری در منطقه 3 شهر زنجان مبتنی بر کیفیت مسکن با ضریب تاثیر9+ ؛ قیمت مسکن با ضریب تاثیر 3+ ؛ بد مسکنی با ضریب تاثیر 3+ ؛ بهداشت محیط با ضریب تاثیر 2+ ؛ و حل مناقشات حقوقی مالکیت با ضریب تاثیر 1+ است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• طرح توسعه شهری
• توسعه مسکن
• آینده پژوهشی
• شهر زنجان

موضوعات

• برنامه ریزی شهری

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the effectiveness of urban development plans in housing development with a futures research approach (Case: Region 3 of Zanjan)

نویسندگان [English]

• Jalil Khatibi ¹
• Rahim Sarvar ²
• Bakhtyar ezatpanah ³

¹ Ph.D. student of geography and urban planning, Marand Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran

² Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University,, Tehran,, Iran

³ Assistant Professor ,Department of Geography and urban planning, Marand branch, Islamic azad university, Marand,Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
The issue of housing development and planning for it in the form of urban development plans with minimal costs and minimum interventions to create optimal living conditions in urban space, is one of the ideal goals of urban management. On the other hand, the realization of the goals of urban development plans depends on the development of sustainable and quality housing. In terms of form, beautiful and in accordance with environmental conditions, with a long shelf life and longevity, compliance with construction standards, high safety and low energy consumption. Therefore, the process of rehabilitation, improvement and modernization and production of housing in urban centers, especially dilapidated structures, is multifaceted, which has an undeniable role in population and socio-economic stability in sustainable neighborhood development. The present study tried to evaluate the role of urban plans in housing development interventions by analyzing and implementing urban development plans in the field of housing planning and meeting the needs of the housing sector in District 3 of Zanjan. In this regard, studies show that achieving the goals of urban development projects depends on the development of sustainable and quality housing. In terms of form, beautiful and in accordance with environmental conditions, with a long shelf life and longevity, compliance with construction standards, high safety and low energy consumption.
Data and Method
This article seeks to explain and analyze the role of urban development plans on housing development policies with a descriptive-analytical method with a future research approach in Region 3 of Zanjan. Data collection was done by field and library studies. The statistical population includes a group of urban experts who were selected for the Delphi panel by snowball sampling method. For data analysis, factor analysis, multiple linear regression test and interactive interaction analysis approach were used with the help of SPSS and Scenario Wizard software. First, by factor analysis, the common variance of one variable with other variables was investigated and minor variables were removed.
Results and Discussion
The correlation between "urban development plans" and "housing development" in region 3 of Zanjan city was analyzed by multiple linear regression test. Finally, by using interactive interaction analysis based on possible component relationships and experts' evaluation of possible future trends, by explaining the relationships between the factors of an impact network, desirable and sustainable patterns of housing development in the form of urban development plans are identified and analyzed. Took.
Quantitative and analytical studies showed that the correlation and causal relationship between "housing production" and "urban development projects" is equal to 0.539. On the other hand, "urban development plans" justify 43% of the variable "housing production". In addition, the "management" index with a coefficient (β = 0.444) had the highest correlation with "urban development plans". On the other hand, the most important model of housing development and production in the form of urban development plans with the approach of balancing interaction analysis based on the sixth scenario with a total impact factor of 57 and a stability value of 1 is the physical components of the housing quality index with coefficient Impact 9+; Economic on housing price index with an impact factor of +3; Social on poor housing index with an impact factor of +3; Environment on environmental health index with an impact factor of +2; And management emphasizes the index of resolving property legal disputes with an impact factor of +1.
Conclusion
Thus, studies show that the quality of housing in terms of strength, age, type of materials and compliance with urban planning and building engineering criteria to produce sustainable housing, along with solving the problem of common ownership and lack of ownership certificate of most dilapidated housing, as well as compliance with criteria. Environmental health, especially how to dispose of sewage, as well as controlling housing prices by producing cheap housing and controlling the stock market in the city can be effective in achieving housing production goals in urban plans. In view of the above, in order to achieve the desired pattern of housing development and production in the form of urban development projects in Region 3 of Zanjan, it seems necessary to observe the following:

Granting facilities in order to reduce the poor housing ratio in the region
Per capita infrastructure improvement
Regulate informal sales and charters
Upgrading housing production capacity
Develop legal rules and requirements for resolving legal and property disputes
Observance of housing quality criteria
Providing a favorable pattern in the field of facade and exterior of the building

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• urban development plan
• housing development
• research future
• Zanjan city