Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 PhD student in geography and urban planning, Marand Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran
2 Professor of Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Marand Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran
3 Academic Member of the Department of Urban Planning and Architecture, Maragheh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Maragheh, Iran
Abstract
A resilient society is able to respond positively to changes or tensions and is able to maintain its core function as a society despite tensions. Natural hazards are one of the main threats to human societies. They overshadow their resilience. Earthquake is one of the most important natural disasters. Earthquakes are basically considered as uncontrollable phenomena. On average, there are 27 catastrophic earthquakes in the world every year, during which 19,000 people die and 36,000 people become homeless.Among these, the geographical area of Iran is one of the accident-prone areas where many natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, storms, droughts, firefighting activities and desertification are examples of which occur every year. In the meantime, the city of Tabriz is one of the largest and most important cities in Iran, which is located in a very high risk area, adjacent to the Tabriz fault and having a population of 1558693 people and the existence of huge human, cultural and History introduces Tabriz as the most dangerous city in terms of earthquake riskAccordingly, Tabriz fault is the most dangerous fault in the country
Highlights
One of the problems that has always threatened the societies for many centuries is the occurrence of disasters that, in case of ignorance and lack of preparation, they would cause irreparable damage to the residential, social, environmental and psychological areas of human life. Among these, earthquake is one of the most important natural disasters. Earthquakes are basically considered as uncontrollable phenomena. On average, 27 devastating earthquakes annually occur in the world during which 19000 people die and 36,000 are left homeless. Meanwhile, Iran is one of the accident-prone areas due to its geographical area where many natural disasters including earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, droughts, volcanic activities and desertification are examples of its imminent disaster history. Every year, the occurrence of these disasters causes a lot of human and financial losses. Meanwhile, Tabriz is one of the largest and most important cities in Iran, which is located in a very high risk area. In other words, Tabriz is one of the largest and most important cities in Iran, which is in a very high risk area. Being adjacent to Tabriz fault and having a population of 1,558,693 people, and enjoying human, cultural and historical capital, Tabriz city is considered as the most dangerous city in terms of seismic risk. That is, Tabriz fault is the most dangerous fault in the country. It predicts the occurrence of a human catastrophe in Tabriz in the coming years so that Tabriz Earthquake Hazard Zoning Plan, carried out by the Tehran Padir Company, has predicted maximum 426,000 human losses for the Tabriz earthquake. In this regard, the most important aim of this dissertation is to evaluate the resilience scenarios in Tabriz city against the probable earthquakes. The research method is based on common methods and models in futurology. The results of this study show that among the forty selected factors affecting the resilience of Tabriz city against earthquakes, twelve factors, which are fault activity, marginalization, population density, building resistance, damage level, poverty, danger zoning map, income, access to open space, crisis budget, temporary housing and security are among the key and important factors for Tabriz resilience in the earthquakes. Based on these determiners, other scenarios were also coded and finally three scenarios were selected as probable scenarios.
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