نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه تبریز
2 دانشجوی دکتری برنامه ریزی آمایش سرزمین،دانشکده برنامهریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This research adopted an integrated futures-oriented methodology. Key variables affecting the future of water resources—including hydrological indicators, climate change, land-use patterns, socio-economic activities, and water governance mechanisms—were first identified. Expert judgments were then collected and refined through the Delphi method to achieve consensus and finalize the variables. Subsequently, causal–influential relationships among the selected variables were analyzed using structural analysis in MICMAC software to determine their levels of influence and dependence and to identify key drivers and critical uncertainties. Based on these results, the identified key and uncertain variables were entered into Scenario Wizard software, and a cross-impact consistency analysis was conducted to develop internally consistent future.The findings indicate that the realization of rational and coherent scenarios—based on controlled urban development, sustainable population management, groundwater resource restoration, enhanced institutional coordination, and improved policy transparency—can facilitate a transition from the current critical water situation toward relative sustainability. These results provide a futures-based, spatially oriented decision-support framework for informed policymaking in regional water resources management.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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