نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی دانشگاه تبریز
2 گروه برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ای دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی دانشگاه تبریز
3 گروه برنامه‌ریزی شهری و منطقه ای، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Objective: The shortage of adequate housing for low-income groups in Tabriz metropolis has become a chronic urban challenge. This study aims to identify and structurally analyze the key factors influencing the development of social housing in Tabriz and to delineate plausible future scenarios
Methods: This research is mixed-method in nature and applied-developmental in purpose. Initial factors were identified through systematic documentary studies and semi-structured interviews with 25 experts in housing and urban planning. A 21×21 cross-impact matrix was developed and administered to 50 experts. Additionally, a separate questionnaire was administered to 100 residents of Tabriz metropolis. Data from the matrix were analyzed using MICMAC software, while resident questionnaire data were analyzed using descriptive statistics.
Results: The MICMAC analysis revealed that the social housing system in Tabriz is unstable and dominated by a limited number of key variables. Three variables were identified as critical drivers: "Amount of government investment in social housing" (E3), "Integration of urban planning with social needs" (G3), and "Increase in slum population" (S3). Based on these drivers, four scenarios were formulated: desirable (participatory governance), technological development (green technologies), threat-oriented (intensified housing crisis), and stagnation (economic instability). The most likely future path for Tabriz is the development based on green technologies and physical-technical solutions, as this scenario can be achieved without deep structural reforms in governance.Text
Conclusions: Sustainable government investment, institutional integration in urban planning, and controlling slum growth were identified as three priority strategic axes. The desirable scenario faces structural barriers in the short to medium term due to weak transparency and public participation. Therefore, the middle path based on improving physical quality, energy efficiency, and climate adaptation represents the most realistic strategy for Tabriz's policymakers
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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