آیندهپژوهی مسکن به عنوان یکی از اساسیترین نیازهای برنامهریزی و مدیریت شهری جهت شناخت مهمترین فاکتورهای موثر بر کیفیت مسکن و تطبیق مسکن بر نیازهای افراد و خانوارها میباشد. لذا هدف از انجام این پژوهش، بررسی وضعیت شاخصهای کمی و کیفی مسکن در شهر تبریز و مقایسه تطبیقی آن با نقاط شهری استان و کشور، تعیین مهمترین فاکتورهای موثر بر کیفیت مسکن و در نهایت شناسایی محتملترین سناریوهای آینده مسکن در کلانشهر تبریز میباشد. روش تحقیق حاضر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ ماهیت و روش تحقیق، توصیفی- تحلیلی است. جهت جمعآوری داده از سالنامههای آماری، سرشماریهای ادوار مختلف و همینطور تکمیل پرسشنامه از 40 نفر از متخصصین و کارشناسان حوزه مسکن استفاده شده است. جهت تحلیل دادهها و تعیین شاخصهای استراتژیک از روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل/ساختاری با نرمافزار MICMAC و جهت تعیین محتملترین سناریوها از نرمافزار سناریو ویزارد استفاده شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان میدهد طی دوره 1395-1355 شاخصهای کمی و کیفی مسکن در شهر تبریز بهبود داشته است. همینطور از میان 16 شاخص موثر بر کیفیت مسکن، 5 شاخص متوسط زیربنای واحد مسکونی، مساکن با عمر کمتر از 30 سال، تراکم خانوار در واحد مسکونی، تراکم نفر در واحد مسکونی و متوسط اتاق در واحد مسکونی به عنوان متغیرهای استراتژیک و کلیدی موثر بر کیفیت مسکن شناخته شده و نهایتا دو سناریو، به عنوان محتملترین سناریوهای بخش مسکن در کلانشهر تبریز شناسایی شدند. در سناریوی اول شاهد کاهش و در سناریوی دوم شاهد ثبات متغیرهای کلیدی هستیم و فقط متغیر مساکن با عمر کمتر از 30 سال در هر دو سناریو افزایش مییابد.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Future Study of Factors Affecting the Quantitative and Qualitative Indicators of Housing in Tabriz Metropolis Using Scenario Planning Approach and Cross-Impact Matrix
Recognizing and examining the housing situation in a country depends on identifying and analyzing the factors affecting housing. To assess the housing situation, housing indicators that express the quantity and quality of different dimensions of housing can be studied. Indicators are tools to measure the housing situation and its evolution, as well as assess the success rate and implementation of housing policies. Paying attention to the quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing is one of the most important issues in housing planning. Housing, as the most basic human need, has become very important in the life of urban communities, so that it has become one of the most effective components of measuring the quality and well-being of citizens.
Futures studies are now well over 50 years old. Discussants pointed out that the term ‘futurology’ was first introduced by Ossip Flechteim in his 1966 book History and Futurology. Eleonora Masini suggested that Flechteim himself did not have a great deal of confidence in the term, nor was he sure whether the said discipline was a ‘science’ or a ‘prescientific’ branch of knowledge. But he was certain that the new field ranged from ‘the destiny of man, the future of his society to the entire range of his future cultural activities. The strongest defense of ‘futurology’ was provided by Pentti Malaska. Malaska argued, describes ‘what futures knowledge is all about – not only epistemologically, i.e. how to acquire knowledge of the future with different techniques for this or that pragmatic purpose but especially ontologically, i.e. what the knowledge of the future may mean. Dator’s First Law of Futures states, ‘The future cannot be ‘‘predicted’’ but alternative futures can be ‘‘forecasted’’. Warren Wagar in his The Next Three Futures and in tracing the history of future studies consistently uses the term ‘futurism’. Futures studies are a mosaic of approaches, objectives, and methods, and many parts of it are in different stages of evolution.
The present research is applied in terms of its purpose and is descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature. To collect data has been used of statistical yearbooks, censuses of different periods as well as completing a questionnaire from 40 experts in the field of housing. To analyze the data and determine the strategic indicators has been used of the method of structural/cross-impact analysis approach with MICMAC software and to determine the most probable scenarios has been used of Wizard scenario software.
Results and Discussion
In the last 40 years in the metropolis of Tabriz, housing has improved in all quantitative indicators except the average number of rooms in a residential unit. Reasons for the decrease in the number of rooms in a residential unit are the change in the architectural style of houses and the transformation of households from widespread to nuclear. Information on the infrastructure of residential units also shows that the infrastructure is moving towards standardization and the number of residential units with very low and very high infrastructure has been decreasing. Regarding the quality of housing, all indicators indicate an improvement of trend in the last 40 years, and the only indicator of the housing ownership, despite the increase in the number of owner-occupied households, shows a decrease in the percentage of owners and an increase in the percentage of tenants. Also among the 16 indicators affecting the quantitative and qualitative status of housing in the metropolis of Tabriz, 5 indicators of the average infrastructure of the residential unit, housing with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years, household density in the residential unit, person density in the residential unit and the average room in the residential unit known as strategic and key variables in the future state of housing and two scenarios were identified as the most likely scenarios in the housing sector in the metropolis of Tabriz. In the first scenario, we will see a decrease in the infrastructure of housing units, a decrease in household density and individual density in a housing unit, and a decrease in the average number of rooms per housing, and an increase in units with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years. In the second scenario, we will see the stability of the infrastructure of housing units, the stability of household density and individual density in the housing unit, and the stability average of rooms in housing, and continue to increase housing with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years.
The results of the present study show that all quantitative indicators of the housing situation in Tabriz have been improved in the last 40 years and only a slight downward trend is observed in the average room index in each residential unit. We also see acceptable growth in housing quality indicators. Although the research results indicate an improving trend in housing quality and quantity indicators in the Tabriz metropolis, there is still a long way to reach the ideal housing conditions. Therefore, to achieve a better quantitative and qualitative status of housing in Tabriz metropolis, conduct comprehensive housing plan studies, employ housing specialists and professors to plan and policy in the field of housing, identify diverse population groups and consider all population groups, age and income and construction of housing in accordance with the needs of each group, using the experiences and studies of successful countries in the field of housing and their adaptation to demographic, cultural and economic conditions of the geographical area and more emphasis on effective housing indicators along with other indicators in housing planning and construction is suggested.