مؤلفههای مکانی از عوامل مؤثر در بروز تغییرات رفتار بارش در یک محدوده میباشند و این امر ضرورت استفاده از علم زمین آمار در مطالعات بارش را نشان میدهد. در پژوهش حاضر تلاش شده تا با استفاده از فراسنج های نیمتغییرنما و رگرسیون جغرافیایی موزون، الگوی بارشهای 121 ایستگاه هواشناسی شامل 27 ایستگاه همدید،7 ایستگاه اقلیمشناسی و 87 ایستگاه بارانسنجی سازمان هواشناسی کشور در دوره آماری 2014-1994 برای فصل بهار مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. نتایج حاصل از آماره نیم تغییر نما نشان داد که ساختار مکانی بارش از ماه آوریل به سمت ماه ژوئن کاهش یافته است ؛ که نشاندهنده کاهش وسعت عمل سیستمهای بزرگ مقیاس در بارش محدوده مطالعاتی و افزایش توان عوامل محلی در وقوع بارش است. بر اساس مدل رگرسیون جغرافیایی موزون مشخص گردید که در تمام منطقه، ناهمواریها بیشترین اثر را در کنترل بارش دارد و علاوه بر آن در کردستان و جنوب آذربایجان غربی جهت شیب، در اردبیل و شمال آذربایجان شرقی عامل شیب بر بارش اثر گذار هستند. همچنین اثرات عامل عرض جغرافیایی منطبق بر حضور بادهای غربی در محدوده بوده و در ماه آوریل در کردستان و در ماههای می و ژوئن در آذربایجان شرقی بیشترین اثرات را داشتهاست.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Spring Rainfall Spatial Pattern Analysis in Northwest of Iran with Spatial Statistics Methods
Rainfall is amongst the most important climatic elements with a lot of spatial and temporal changes; in contrast to the other climatic phenomena, rainfall features more notable movement complexity. The studies performed in this regard indicate that such a climatic element as rainfall features a non-stationary behavior with a vast part of this non-stationariness being the result of the rainfall’s being influenced by the spatial properties and the complex pattern of the spatial organization causes the emergence of complex behaviors in the precipitations. The importance of the rainfall as the country’s water resource and the daily increasing reduction of the country’s water reservoirs demands the study of the rainfall’s behaviors. In the present study and by the assistance of the methods of spatial statistics, the spatial pattern of the spring rainfalls in the northwest of Iran will be elaborated.
Data and Method
The study area of the present study is the regions in the northwest of Iran (Azerbaijan-e-Gharbi, Azerbaijan-e-Sharghi, Ardabil, Kurdistan and Zanjan Provinces) and, to perform the study, use has been made of the monthly precipitation data acquired from 121 synoptic stations as well as climatological investigations and precipitation studies for a period between 1994 and 2014.
In order to perform the spatial analysis of the precipitations, use has been made of the digital map of the elevation in the environment of ArcGIS software for extracting slope and dip. In the next part and in order to analyse the spatial structure of the rainfall and investigate the degree of similarity between the data acquired from 121 station points, use has been made of the half pseudo-variance spatial correlation index. The Semivariogram has been estimated based on the arithmetic mean of the intervals.
In the present study, use was made of the longitude and latitude of every station point and the rainfall rates of every point for delineating the empirical Semivariogram for three months, namely April, May and June in the environment of Variowin Software, version 2.2; then, various theoretical models were estimated in terms of their goodness of fit and the exponential model was selected as the best model for every month.
In order to analyse the spatial factors influencing the spring rainfalls in the northwest, the balanced geographical regression model was estimated in terms of its goodness of fit with its output being the indicator or indicators influencing the occurrence of spring rainfalls according to the explanatory variables of slope, dip, elevation and latitude.
Results and Discussion
Following the investigation of the data related to April, it was made clear that the effect of the elevations on the rainfall variations is significant in this month in the entire parts of the region. The highest significant effect of the elevation has been in the central parts of the region for such a reason as the large density of the mountainous masses in this part and the passing of precipitation systems from these regions. In parts of the region’s north (north of Azerbaijan-e-Gharbi, Azerbaijan-e-Sharghi and Ardabil), the significance rate of elevation is reduced because these regions are plains and plateaus and lower in elevation than the other areas. Latitude has been found having a significant effect in the southwestern sections of the region (south of Azerbaijan-e-Gharbi, Kurdistan and Zanjan) and, in a more scattered manner, in the north of Urmia Lake and it seems that the reason for such a significance is the passing of the precipitation systems from the southern sections of the region.
As in April, the effect of the elevation on the rainfall has been also found significant in all the sections of the region in May. The highest rate of significance has been found centered in the western and central sections of the region (particularly in the central parts) and this is completely due to the existence of the mountainous air masses. Considering the gradual displacement of the western winds towards the northernmost parts of the region and the vertical irradiation of the sunlight onto the sun-facing foothills, the role of the elevations becomes more accentuated in the creation of convectional rainfalls and the regions with lower elevation would receive lower precipitations.
In June, as well, except the south-eastern section of the region (eastern half of Zanjan Province), the other regions have been found with the significant effect of elevation on the creation of rain. In this month, the conditions fit the occurrence of foothill convection in the studied area. The highest effect of the rising and falling lands on the creation of the rain has been evidenced for the north-western sections and this is in match with the path through which the western winds pass on these days; that is because the rain-causing winds are present in this section in this month and, considering the region’s elevations, cause the occurrence of rainfall. The effects of latitude in June is like those in May and the presence of the western winds and setting of the ground for the foothill convention causes rainfalls in the northern and central section of the study region.
Elevation has been found influential in the entire studied region on the rainfall because the high density of high grounds causes the ascension and condensation of the humid air that causes rainfall. Besides elevation, the dip also influences the rainfall in Kurdistan and south of Azerbaijan-e-Gharbi because the orientation of the foothills in this section sets the ground for the dynamic ascension of the humid air. In Ardabil and north of Azerbaijan-e-Sharghi, slope is also an effective factor. The high slope of these regions causes the acceleration of the humid air masses’ ascension. The effects of the latitude on rainfall during spring are different and mostly related to the presence of the western winds; in April in Kurdistan and in May and June in Azerbaijan-e-Sharghi, latitude has been found with the highest effect on the rainfall.