در سالهای اخیر در کنار توجه ویژه به دیدگاههای مرتبط با توسعه پایدار و پایداری شهری، نگرش بهبود کیفیت زندگی که از ملزومات زیستپذیری شهرهاست، جایگاه خود را در ادبیات برنامهریزی شهری باز کرده است. هدف مقاله حاضر جستجوی پیشرانهای اصلی تأثیرگذار بر زیستپذیری شهری است. این مقاله یکی از مستعدترین شهرهای مرکزی کشور یعنی شهر کاشان را به عنوان محدوده پژوهش انتخاب نموده است. روش این تحقیق از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی- تحلیلی و گردآوری اطلاعات آن به صورت «اسنادی و میدانی» است که از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته در آن استفاده شد و رویکرد آن مبتنی بر آیندهپژوهی و افق آن سال 1415 است. جامعه آماری 15 نفر از خبرگان و متخصصان شهری بودهاند. به منظور سنجش و تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات از نرم افزارهای آینده پژوهی شامل میکمک و سناریو ویزارد استفاده شده است. نتایج این تحقیق بیانگر آن است که 5 سناریوی با ترکیبهای متفاوتی از سه وضعیت، مطلوب، ایستا و بحرانی که احتمال وقوع در زیستپذیری شهر کاشان را دارند که 1/51 درصد وضعیت بحرانی، 8/17 درصد در حالت ایستا و 1/31 درصد وضعیت مطلوب صفحه سناریو را به خود اختصاص داده است و احتمال وقوع رخدادهای منفی (بحرانی) بیشتر از رخدادهای مثبت (مطلوب) میباشد.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Determining key drivers affecting urban livability with a futuristic approach (Case study: Kashan)
In recent decades, in parallel with theories of sustainable development and sustainable urban development, the idea of improving the quality of life, which in turn makes cities more livable, has found its place in urban planning literature and, therefore, the ability to have Livelihoods are essential for cities. This article has selected one of the most talented central cities of the country, namely Kashan city, as the scope of research, which has excellent features such as tourist attractions, historical and cultural history, natural attractions and so on. On the other hand, in this city, issues such as; Widespread unemployment and employment issues, the phenomenon of marginalization, lack of recreational and leisure facilities, high housing prices and rents, and so on. In order to eliminate these negative effects from the spaces of this city, it is necessary to identify and analyze the key factors affecting livability with a future research approach. The main question of the research is what are the key factors affecting the future situation of livability in Kashan?
This research is based on the purpose of applied research and according to data collection methods, it is descriptive-analytical research and its data collection method is "documentary and field" in which the researcher-made questionnaire was used. The research method is based on the futures approach and its horizon is 1415. The statistical population was 15 experts and specialists. Futurism projects use a set of techniques and methods that often complement each other, and the outputs of each form the inputs to the next method. Micmac and Scenario Wizard futures software and Delphi method have been used to review and analyze the data. Propulsion forces are prioritized based on the opinion of specific experts and then these factors are prioritized based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, and the most critical factors are used to write down possible scenarios.
Results and discussion
In this study, 24 factors were identified as effective factors of biodiversity indicators in Kashan. The identified factors are then analyzed with Mick Mac software to extract the main influential factors. The dimensions of the matrix were 24. 24. The degree of saturation of the matrix is 84.22%, which shows that the selected factors have a great and scattered effect on each other, and in fact, the system has been in a state of instability. According to Table 1, out of a total of 488 measurable relationships in this matrix, 88 were zero, which means that the factors did not affect each other or were not affected by each other.58 The relationship was one, meaning that the effect was relatively small. Together, 163 relationships were numbered 2, meaning that the influential interface was relatively strong, 174 relationships were 3, meaning that the key factor relationships were very large and highly effective. Finally, 93 relationships had a P number that indicated the potential and indirect relationships of the factors.
The results of this study indicate 5 scenarios with different combinations of three situations, desirable, static and critical, which are likely to occur in the viability of Kashan city, which unfortunately, the probability of negative (critical) events is more than positive (desirable) events. However, 51.1% of the critical situation, 17.8% in the static state and 31.1% in the optimal state of the scenario page. With this situation, it seems that the favorable and stable conditions have occupied a smaller part of the scenario page and the critical situation is in the first priority and according to the results of these scenarios, it is clear that in Kashan's habitability, conditions are likely to occur. More critical, but less likely to occur. A very important point in the results is the relative distance of the level of desirability in the best case scenario with the ultimate living objectives of Kashan city. Assuming that the best scenario, which is Scenario 1, occurs among the five scenarios, it does not indicate the desired viability of Kashan in the future. In the most optimistic case scenario, one in four scenarios out of five scenarios affecting urban viability will be in an almost favorable situation, with only four desirable scenarios alone, and the other four scenarios have a much lower utility ratio. On the other hand, assuming that the worst possible situation, scenario 5, occurs in the viability of Kashan city, in this scenario we will see 6 critical situations in the scenario that we will not see a favorable situation in Kashan city.