Climatology
Broomand Salahie; Mahdei Aeli Jaham; Saiede Ainei; Jafar Derakshei
Abstract
The purpose of this study is forecasting the moderat and severs frost of three stations in Kermanshah, Kangavar and Sarpolezahab using output of the LARS-WG downscale model in the next two decades. The Input data's of models used in this study are: precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature ...
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The purpose of this study is forecasting the moderat and severs frost of three stations in Kermanshah, Kangavar and Sarpolezahab using output of the LARS-WG downscale model in the next two decades. The Input data's of models used in this study are: precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and radiation in daily scale during the period 1992 - 2012. In the present study, using the output of two climate models, HADCM3 and BCM2 Under A1B Scenario, the initiation and end of the moderat and sever frost in these three periods 2030-2011, 2065-2046 and 2099-2080 have been evaluated. The results of the LARS-WG model process by the means of two Scheme Bcm2 and Hadcm3 indicate the warming of these stations in the coming years. The initiation of the moderat frost in these pointed stations is going to April by passing time. Between the stations in which are under study, Kangavar and Kermanshah stations have similar behavior but the Sarpolezahab station because of its tropic characteristic, showed a different behavior rather than the two stations in the coming years. The beginning of sever frost of these stations delayed with passing time and proceeds toward spring and in the other side, the end time of the last sever frost by passing time and getting close to the end of the anticipated period, is toward the beginning of winter and even at the Sarpole-zahab station until February. According to the results of the processing these models, the number of days with the moderat and sever frost in these stations will be dwindled in the coming years and the trend of temperature in these stations will be increased.
Climatology
asadollah khoorani; zahra jamali
Abstract
The aim of this paper is assessment and comparison of potential impacts of climate change on drought indices in an arid and a semiarid station. For this purpose, daily data of minimum and maximum temperature, sunshine and precipitation are used. This data were downscaled statistically by using ...
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The aim of this paper is assessment and comparison of potential impacts of climate change on drought indices in an arid and a semiarid station. For this purpose, daily data of minimum and maximum temperature, sunshine and precipitation are used. This data were downscaled statistically by using LARS-WG model based on A2, B1 and A1B scenarios. These climatic parameters are projected for 2011-2040, and RDI index was extracted for both observed (1961-1990) and projected data from HADCM3 model. The research outcomes show drought severity has increased under each scenario in both stations, except for Shahrekord under B1 scenario. For Bandarabbbas station, percent of droughts are about 6.7, 10 and 10 under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios respectively. This parameter is 6.7 and 3.3 percent under A1B and A2 in Shahrekord station and the number (percent) of droughts will decrease about %10 under B1 scenario in this station.
